Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[norfolk]

Thanks Norfolk. At the rate in which they seem to be developing I might be asking you for the next 6 names for each country.

After Errol is, Fina, Grant and Heidi for the BOM

and for the South Pacific(Fiji department) after Atu will be Bune, Cyril and Daphne.

[johnno]

Nice work Tony

[johnno]

2 Years ago Feb 7th half of Victoria was burning 2 years later on the same date half of Eastern Australia may be under water, nature can be really cruel but unfortuntly thats how it works in cycles

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, Carlos is next, i got confused with all the lists.

[Supercellimpact]

I noticed BOM's Water and land rainfall prediction chart has got 15mm to 30mm for between 2nd Feb to 5th Feb. But by the way most people on here are saying I would expect between 20mm - 40mm.

[I_Love_Storms]

Maybe 20mm-200mm would be more suitable for possible ranges. It will most likely be a hit or miss type scenario. If it hits VIC is in a lot of trouble, if it shifts east a lot of VIC will be spared but the NE will still cop a hiding.

[Didjman]

... if it shifts east a lot of VIC will be spared but the NE will still cop a hiding.

And so will all towns down the Murray!!

Peter

[Anthony Violi]

Um...latest EC shows 160mm for Coldstream! Havent checked the others but will be similar.

Cold air interaction now a certainty and a massive flood event is also on the cards..as Johnno said on the same days 2 years ago we had raging bushfires and record heat. This year we will have another widespread flood event, how the wheel turns.

[Supercellimpact]

Lastest EC has 118mm for here !!

[apocalypse]

EC is certainly cranking it up a notch now, suggesting around 140mm in yesterdays run and 120mm in it's latest run, including 59mm on Thursday.
Quite surprised that the other models haven't picked it yet, with only lighter rain days here and there over the forecast period. GFS normally does quite well in these situations but it should jump on board within the next few days.

[Anthony Violi]

I think everyones going to get a rude shock in a few days...the other models will jump on but how late? EC is right.

We are sitting ducks for most of SE Oz..the scary thing is EC produces an Easterly Dip scenario at the end of its run after all the rain...could be like Dec and have about 10 days of humid thundery weather.

[Ken]

ACCESS still struggling with the concept theres a major cyclone to cross the Queensland coast mid next week (but we keep getting told its a very good model even though its made 1 stuff up after another lately) infact doesn't even have a a cyclone yet,

ACCESS-G has a known tendency to be reluctant to spin up TC's, mainly due to it's low resolution (about 80km) compared to many other global models (16km for EC). It still performs far better than its predecessor, GASP though.

Meanwhile, the 2-week tropical storm/cyclone probability maps from the EC and UK ensembles have been consistent for over a week now in suggesting moderate/high probabilities for the development of the current system out near Vanuatu and its movement across the Coral Sea towards the QLD coast this week as a significant system (EC has also been painting an area of up to 40% probabilities for this system to reach severe TC status). They also both show the system might penetrate well inland while remaining fairly strong (a landphoon type scenario).

The implications for SE Australia is that depending on whether or not it does reach the QLD coast as a significant system and if so, its exact path over land, some of the moisture might advect across parts of the southeast later on. Here's this morning's (0032z) colour-enhanced IR MTSAT imagery showing the relative sizes of this current system compared to TC Anthony. Apologies for the size of the images:

MTSAT_0032z_30thJan2011.JPG (153.62 KiB) Viewed 5215 times

I can also confirm these systems have been dominating the news here the past few days (someone here asked about that). Our premier, Anna Bligh activated the State Disaster Management Group the other day, recalled staff, held a press conference and went into depth about how the latest modeling was showing the potential for two TC strikes on the coast with the 2nd system being much larger and potentially more dangerous. Here's the front page of QLD's Courier Mail newspaper I bought yesterday:

CourierMail.jpg (48.02 KiB) Viewed 5217 times

[Didjman]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... t&file=jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A developing eye is visible.

Peter

[Rivergirl]

Cyclone Yasi poses 'bigger threat' to Qld
ABC News

The category one system is north-west of Vanuatu, but is expected to intensify before crossing the Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday.

Authorities say the massive cyclone could be as intense as Cyclone Larry, which devastated parts of far north Queensland in 2006.

The weather bureau predicts Cyclone Yasi's eye will cross the coast near Townsville, but it says the system is so large it could impact communities 500 kilometres away.

Senior forecaster Jim Davidson says Cyclone Yasi is a big threat.

"It's probably going to be in the category three to category four range - wind gusts up to 200 to 260 [kilometres per hour]," he said.

Mr Davidson is also warning there could be a large storm tide as it crosses the coast either late on Wednesday or early on Thursday.


Cyclone Anthony

It will be the second cyclone to hit Queensland this week after Cyclone Anthony crossed the state's north coast near Bowen last night, south of Townsville, last night.

Cyclone Anthony brought down down trees and caused some minor damage to homes in north Queensland.

It has now been downgraded to a tropical low, heading inland.

Weather bureau spokesman Rick Threlfall says Cyclone Yasi is a large system and is developing quickly

"It's about 2,000 kilometres still east north-east of Bowen, so it's still a long way off, but it's moving west quite quickly," he said.

"We're keeping an eye on that - currently Fiji is monitoring that system and they're looking at bringing that towards the Queensland coast sometime on Wednesday night on on Thursday morning as a significant system.

"It's certainly going to move inland into Queensland during the course of the later part of next week, with fairly widespread rain areas and heavy rain within that as well, so the flooding potential is there.

"Exactly where at this stage is just a bit too difficult to say."

Superintendent Brian Connors from the Cairns Disaster Coordination Centre says the cyclone is very concerning.

"It's better to be over-prepared than under-prepared is the simplest way to put it," he said.

"We are treating it very seriously although there is not defined location that it will direct the impact on at this point in time, but it's best to go through those preparations nice and early."


'Bigger threat'

Queensland Transport Minister Rachel Nolan says coal ports and the rail system avoided damage from Cyclone Anthony, but Yasi is a bigger threat.

"There is some possibility of getting coal ships into Abbot Point today in order to commence loading before they would have to go out again in the next couple of days for the bigger cyclone to come," he said.

"It hasn't been completely decided if that's possible, but there is an aim to do that."

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says full cyclone preparations should be put in place across north Queensland.

EMQ spokesman Wayne Coutts says it is important people are prepared.

"People should consider to be self-sufficient in their home after the impact of such an event after about 72 hours," he said.

"Consider what you might do if you don't have power for about that long, consider what you might do if there's no water, if you're unable to go to the shops."

Independent state MP Rob Messenger says property owners should be allowed to clear trees before the next cyclone hits.

Mr Messenger says the vegetation management laws provide an exemption when there is a risk of serious personal injury, or damage to infrastructure.

He has called on the State Government to clarify that the exemption applies to cyclone threats.

[johnno]

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 163.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND
PGTW. TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE-
ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
BASED LARGELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 TO 65 KNOTS, AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-30 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH
TAU 48, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A 100+ KNOT, LARGE SYSTEM. TC 11P SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

[johnno]

While we look forward into our binoculars in what rainfall is there to come for SE Oz lets look back the past 3 months Anomalies .. November to January rainfall across the Nation and Victoria...

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... th&area=vc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Umm that leaves me spechless 60-70% of Victoria has smashed its record of the wettest November to January ever!! Including neally all of Northern Victoria and neally all of Western Victoria even the far Western suburbs of Melbourne broke records for the wettest Nov to Jan period

[Anthony Violi]

Got to be a mistake..permanent drought and get used to it.

Oh hang on, here comes another 200mm..

[HarleyB]

Are the remains of TC Anthony almost in the moisture funnel that will come down this way? Also where will Yasi go after it comes through Queensland?

[johnno]

Got to be a mistake..permanent drought and get used to it.

Oh hnag on, here comes another 200mm..

Don't tell the climatologists that Anthony they will say the past 18 months has been a fluke

Yep looking forward to seeing the models tonight EC in particular for whats to come over the course of the next week

[johnno]

Yep Harley the remnants of Anthony will come down to Central and Eastern Victoria 2nd cyclone harder to pick but should also move down SW and fronts/troughs may attach to them bringing more rain

Latest 6 month decile rainfall...
1st August to 31st January
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;