Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

[samueliza]

wow- qld is in big trouble if they get more rain>

Forgive me for being self interested- but i am heading off camping in Bright for a week from Monday 3rd thru to Sunday JAnuary 10th. Early indications seem to great weatherwise but i know this area is susceptible to te odd storm late at night. Anyone like to give me an indication as to what weather i might expect up there during this time- i just dont fancy pulling a tent down in torrential rain and it seems to me the weather will start to deteriorate on about the 10th. Very grateful for any contributions!!!!!!!!!!!!

[droughtbreaker]

Storms are likely from the 5th-7th up there at this stage. It is too early to get into specifics but it is a fair bet there will be some showers or storms up there during this time. The NE ranges of VIC are prone to summer storms, the humidity is usually higher up there in January than the rest of inland VIC as they get the most effect from NE winds.

[samueliza]

Thanks mate! Will bring the shovel along so the kids can dig me a moat around the tent. Lol.

Cant complain even if there is a shower or storm, according to future prognostications and what wetness was dealt before xmas, these past past few weeks have been ideal camping weather! Enjoy your holidays folks!

[droughtbreaker]

Models have delayed the storms even later now so you might be alright for most of the time. Always difficult to forecast storms more than 2 to 3 days out.

[Karl Lijnders]

Storms look to develop from 3-4pm today.

[Anthony Violi]

Coldest winter in 1000 years....nothing ordinary about the climate atm..

And i will leave you with this. If we dont start getting ready for the onset of an ice age we will see millions of people dead worldwide. We need to get warmer if we want to live. Crops, animals etc will be destroyed and deaths will be many. ATM its heating up in the areas we dont live. The continents are stable regardless of the crap GISS says. The climate is about to deliver a reality check in the next 30 years that will make your hair stand on end. If im right, we are all in danger.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/16 ... 000-years/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Petros]

You know AV, I agree with you (but far less educated to comment with any credibility).

From the alarmists predictions from 10 years ago we should have already experienced:

* a definitive (ie real see it lakeside) sea level rise
* the global net average sea temperature increased
* onset of debilitating droughts in Australia (as if those for past 15 years werent enough)
* recordable increase in average air temperature across Australia (I wont comment on the current Europe/N America freeze)
* notable and very apparent escallation in CO2 gas concentration in the air

We are being fooled into sending this country into 3rd world economic conditions by a group of people who's livihood depends on producing mantra acceptable to the current political will, all supported by huge business which will make a killing out of financial devices such as CO2 certificate trading.

[Anthony Violi]

If you sit back and think about it, the warming we are supposed to be having is all in the arctic, greenland etc. Zero population.

The only way the rest of the world has warmed is by adjustments made to data. In the 1920 there was less Arctic Ice than present.

Why wouldnt any sane individual wait for the next cool cycle of the PDO and then judge? Simply, because they are insane, greedy and want to ruin the world. Ask the folk of Europe how they feel about the new green scheme with the Co2 friendly boilers. They are about to descend into a state of anarchy.

If you want a snapshot of what is to come, check this link.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people ... SSTMon.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nino temps will struggle back to neutral before a double dip it seems. we will start to see the effects this coming year.

But the sting in the tail is the solar connection, if they are right, then standby for a mini ice age.

Also, if AGW is correct, then we can expect more cold as its been caused by AGW? Preposterous.

I think we will see another big year in Australia, and Victoria as well.

[droughtbreaker]

I think we should all be hoping for near to average years from now on. Slightly above rainfall wise, and slightly below temperature wise. Extremes are the worst types of weather, just look at QLD right now. If you want to destroy economies and wipe out lives, extremes are the way to do it and by that I mean every aspect of the weather, i.e. extreme wet/extreme dry, extreme hot/extreme cold, extreme wind, extreme severe thunderstorms etc.

Take the VIC grain crops as an example. After years of destruction from severe long term drought, a lot of the crops this year get wiped out by extreme wet through spring and early summer. 80% of the cherry crop gets wiped out in NSW etc. etc.

[Karl Lijnders]

But in the same breath, there will always be a farmer that is put out by the weather conditions. Cannot please everyone.

[Anthony Violi]

Global warming is taking all our water....see here. Article after last years bushfires...yet another failed prediction.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article ... 20,00.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The raging infernos that have left more than 160 people dead in southern Australia burned with such speed that they resembled less a wildfire than a massive aerial bombing. Many victims caught in the blazes had no time to escape; their houses disintegrated around them, and they burned to death. As firefighters battle the flames and police begin to investigate possible cases of arson around some of the fires, there will surely be debates over the wisdom of Australia's standard policy of advising residents to either flee a fire early or stay in their homes and wait it out. John Brumby, the premier of the fire-hit Australian state of Victoria, told a local radio station on Monday that "people will want to review that ... There is no question that there were people who did everything right, put in place their fire plan, and it [didn't] matter — their house was just incinerated."

Although the wildfires caught so many victims by surprise last weekend, there has been no shortage of distant early-warning signs. The 11th chapter of the second working group of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for example, warned that fires in Australia were "virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency" because of steadily warming temperatures over the next several decades. Research published in 2007 by the Australian government's own Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization reported that by 2020, there could be up to 65% more "extreme" fire-danger days compared with 1990, and that by 2050, under the most severe warming scenarios, there could be a 300% increase in such days. "[The fires] are a sobering reminder of the need for this nation and the whole world to act and put at a priority the need to tackle climate change," Australian Green Party leader Bob Brown told the Sky News. (See pictures of Australia's wildfires.)

Destructive wildfires are already common in Australia, and it's not hard to see why climate change would increase their frequency. The driest inhabited continent on the planet, Australia has warmed 0.9°C since 1950, and climate models predict the country could warm further by 2070, up to 5°C over 1990 temperatures, if global greenhouse-gas emissions go unchecked. Beyond a simple rise in average temperatures, climate change will also lead to an increase in Australia's extreme heat waves and droughts. Southwestern Australia is already in the grip of a prolonged drought that has decimated agriculture and led to widespread water rationing; the region is expected to see longer and more extreme dry periods in the future as a result of steady warming.

It's important to acknowledge that no single weather event can be definitively caused by climate change — and it's possible that the current inferno in Australia might have been as intense and deadly even without the warming of the past several decades. Police are beginning to suspect that many of the fires may have been deliberately set, and the sheer increase in the number of homes built in fire-danger zones in southern Australia today puts more people in harm's way, raising the potential death toll. Still, heat waves and drought set the table for wildfires, and temperatures in the worst-hit areas have been over 110°F (43°C) while humidity has bottomed out near zero. Climate change will continue to be a threat multiplier for forest fires. (See the top 10 green ideas of 2008.)

That's one more reason why the world must work together to reduce global carbon emissions to minimize the impact of climate change. The trouble is, though, CO2 cuts won't be enough. As a recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science points out, even if we are successful in cutting carbon emissions rapidly — hardly an easy task — the momentum of climate change will continue for centuries. That means our ability to adapt to the impacts of warming, including more aggressive responses to wildfires like those in Australia, will become all the more critical, lest natural disasters turn into human catastrophes. But it also means that the world we've become accustomed to will change, perhaps irrevocably. The wildfires in southern Australia are already the worst in the nation's history — but they surely won't be the last.


And the result...a disaster of biblical proportions.

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.co ... -01-am.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Petros]

Yep we need our sunspots back to "normal" (if there is ever such a thing) - or else we will cool as has happened before.

Agree Karl, there is a season to suit everything but none to suit all, when it comes to farming.

[norfolk]

I dunno if I have misunderstood, maybe I have, but you guys are not saying that extreme wet is better than extreme dry? Surely they are just as bad as each other?

I know averages mean that you are going to have extremes one way or the other, but we can't be enjoying this extremely wet year/season just because it's a change from the extreme dry.

Don't get me wrong. I don't want the extreme dryness to be back in any hurry, but imagine what it will be like if we got 10 years of these kind of conditions. Consistant flooding of farming areas would see many people not being able to survive on their land because they will not be able to plant their crops. Unless everyone begins to plant rice!!

Every form of extreme is just as bad as each other.
In all honesty, id love to see those flooded areas, have a few months of dry weather so they can clean up and get on with their lives. I do think us city/suburban folk can get a bit complacent when it comes to extremes in weather. Yes they might be exciting to us, but somewhere, the same kind of weather we enjoy (heat for me, rain and storms for others etc) is making someone out there suffer.

I'll shut up now.

Tony

[Anthony Violi]

No Tony, what i am saying is that extreme heat is better than extreme cold. The areas warming up are in the Arctic and Greenland, from minus 50 to minus 40. Thats of course a generalisation, but you get the picture. An increase of 0.14 per decade globally, which is starting to drop anyway, is manageable and perfectly liveable.

But if we go into an ice age as some are starting to predict, the Earth cannot possibly cope. Animals and crops will be destroyed. Basic living may cease.

The PDO is going cold so La Ninas will become more prominent than Ninos, so we will drop away next 30 years, the question is how much? If this is the coldest European in 1000 years than the message is clear.

[Petros]

Warmer and wetter and we can survive - a cooling trend (which will happen if the sunspots dictate) spells major trouble for our grand kids from all I've read. Just my opinion - but formed from my interpretation from what I've read in the current climate forums here and WZ etc. rather than any personal theory. I am a climate tiro but can smell a rat if theres a dead one nearby.

Norfolk if we got 10 years of the same conditions as this year East Gippsland could feed most of Vic! Something will grow somewhere as long as it rains.

......But in the very shorter term, I'm frustrated that we are "wasting" a good LaNina over Vic past weeks and into the foreseeable 7-10 days, bummer.

[Supercellimpact]

Don't worry Petros, there's storms and showers coming next week from Thursday onwards, read what the other guys have said in the other thread... It's coming we just have to wait.

[Petros]

Too much high pressure - Vic is under a 1012 - 1018 hPa fluctuation for the next 8 days imho.

[I_Love_Storms]

May be a bit early to say it, but if the GFS scenario comes off and we don't get significant rain for another 3-4 weeks we could be in for a very nasty late fire season.

[droughtbreaker]

1012-1018hpa isn't high pressure.

It's all relative anyway. If you have 1015hpa with an upper trough and surface trough overhead, temps in the 30s and high teen DPs you will get showers and storms. If there is a weak ridge with central pressure 1015hpa right over us it will be fine. Often there is just a couple hundred kms in it.

The ridge is actually progged south of us for most of the next 10 days and slipping further south the later into this period we go. The storms sit over eastern NSW at first but then as the ridge slips just a little south it will extend into our region. Upper lows and troughs will create a focus for rainfall. I can not see another fortnight without rain at this stage, that is jumping to the worst case scenario to suggest that. It is a day by day thing. The models are changing around a fair bit. EC has a significant rain event over parts of VIC for late next weekend onwards.

BTW, we have found out first hand this year over western, central and northern VIC, that extreme rainfall is not necessarily desirable. After years and years of intense drought we have been programmed to believe that the antidote is years with the tap on full blast so to speak. What we actually need is years and years of slightly above average rainfall with slightly cooler than average temperatures. Plants do not respond well to long term severe drought stress and then inundation for several months immediately following. The native vegetation seems to be going alright but crops and garden plants have been under stress this year because of this.

The main positive to come out of this year was the dams filling at phenomenal rates. Now that this has happened though we do not want the same next year so we end up with a QLD scenario where the ground is completely saturated again, all the dams overflow with massive releases and sheets of water just inundate everything over vast areas. Time to get a boat if that's the case.

Our property was completely waterlogged through October-November and we have lost several plants because of it and there are several others that are looking a bit ragged with yellowing leaves etc but seem healthy enough (i.e. they are growing) Overall the wet has really boosted things, particularly in the forests, but crops have been stuffed up and certain garden plants are just dropping dead.

[Petros]

Good post DB and agree 1015-1018 is not very high pressure, however it is a large organised anti-cyclone which should provide persistent if not overly strong, NE'lies.

Cool calm fully overcast morning here, baro steady on a not-so-high 1016 hPa, sitting here watching a better start to a test cricket match and not feeling too guilty about being a couch potato.

Should clear to a sunny arvo with SE seabreeze so will take the kids out skiing later.