johnno wrote:ACCESS has alot of rain for us and it still doesn't even have the 2nd major cyclone progged where alot of moisture will also come from so imagine if it did have the 2nd cyclone like EC
EDIT: Norwedigan site has almost 140mm for Swan Hill next weekend, 230mm for Benalla from Thursday to Sunday, now I know there be alot of path changes with this one and the finer detail will be discussed in coming days but the general bigger picture is it will deliver a huge punch wherever it goes
I'm not actually picking on you Johnoo, and you probably will be proven right I hope. BUT how can you assume that because a model (ACCESSG) has MISSED something as significant as the huge cyclone that 3+ other credible models have consistently progged for 36hrs - that its Vic rainfall progs are going to be credible?? I too reckon we are going to get huge rain in Vic in the next 10 days but cant pick up the indications (past 25mm) in any model this far out.
Well it seems that many of us are in aggreeance of a big rain event looming for Vic in the comming 10 days, but no bloody model will agree with our collective hunch!!!!
johnno wrote:We all remember what happened after the biggest/most intense and longest heatwave in November 2009 in modern times we got smashed at the end of it this will be worse cos the heat is even more intense inland colliding with alot of moisture, we saw in January cold air doesn't even have to be that cold behind it and parts of Victoria are still under water as long as we get the upslide which we did, well this time the moisture will be just as intense and the heat be stronger so one doesn't have to think to far out of the box to what may/could happen
.... and now I'm REALLY lost, the biggest heatwave occured in a November? If you mean FOR a November??!!..... its still little revalence given we are now circa February? I thing I'll grab another beer.
Petros wrote:Well it seems that many of us are in aggreeance of a big rain event looming for Vic in the comming 10 days, but no bloody model will agree with our collective hunch!!!!
Models seem to be agreeing to me, just not showing the colossal totals yet.
My wife has told me about big ant mounds recently built near some of our bigger roses. She hasn't reported flying ants - yet! Sure signs of big rain.
I feel similar to the "chill" I felt prior to Black Saturday.
Peter
I do too Peter and this weather is certainly amazing to watch but so equally terrifying for areas under flood threat while we bake. It is a cruel land out there and we have been lucky the last 18months! But now it has gone crazy and I am sad to say but we haven't seen the worst of it.
In that case we will continue to update you as best as possible with model data and prognosis.
My feeling is showers and storms about Tuesday with a pressure trough and wind shift through the whole southern inland. Then a trough deepening later in the week, drawing in TC Anthony and Bianca together followed by that biblical system from the N which at this stage dump 250mm of rain in some areas of the north and west on current guideance. It is hard for me to predict that but this being like Black Saturday in terms of perfect storm scenario, it has to be said. I forecast 46C over the Black Saturday period about a week out and got laughed at and mocked for it. I call it as I see it.
That doesn't mean this event will happen as I say, but just so you know I don't throw totals or events like this around lightly!
But yes late next week looking very interesting, if that second cyclone comes off like EC has been saying then yes we could be looking at a lot of rain, but Qld could be looking at a huge area of 5 day totals in the 200-400mm range if it comes off.
Cant see that cold air coming up will quickly slide east just another deep wet trough
Looking like LOTS of storms across the country and this will only increase in the coming week lots of storms about to watch, think nothing here till late week but north could start seeing the odd storm from Tuesday
Wow so much to watch next 10 days Perth hit Sunday, as to Qld.Then another TC following it in almost the same spot is possible, then a big rain event in eastern inland is possible if it all comes together.
Cant see repeat of 2 weeks ago that was just a massive week and EVERYTHING came together but if comes off 100-150 widespread looking good but is horrible news still EARLY days
Feel we have to wait till Monday before have a great idea on this but wow
Well now the models are starting to show their hand, ACCESS, EC and GFS all bring the cold air up next FRi/Sat and give us a lot of rain.
For some reason ACCESS still giving us 26 degree Dps for 3 days which couldnt happen, given the warmth it would mean 500mm of rain for the period.
but most of Eastern OZ will be flooded regardless, and Central Australia is now also included in the danger area as Anthony may move all the way to the WA heat trough.
And EC then puts us into an Easterly dip on the last day of its run
ACCESS still struggling with the concept theres a major cyclone to cross the Queensland coast mid next week (but we keep getting told its a very good model even though its made 1 stuff up after another lately) infact doesn't even have a a cyclone yet, While GFS pushes it all the way to the Top end and Kimberly which I can't see happening due to the fact the Upper high ridge will relax and disinigrate over Australia and let the tropical moisture head SW then S/SE like EC has been showing for days hence why the cyclone or ex cyclone by then heads into our neck of the woods
There will be more very heavy rainfall from the remains of TC Anthony. It does look like it will be mainly in the north at this stage but the potential is there for another massive rain event with a slow moving LWT interacting with the ex TC and coming down over us. Troubling times ahead, thank god for the extreme heat which should bake the ground in the flood areas.
So when will the general public be given a heads up on the possibility of this event occuring by the good people at the BoM? I know that I like to be aware that this might occur so if I have to make any preperations to my property (ie clean gutters check storm drains etc) I can. If this event was to come off and I lived in an area that had been previously flood affected, I would be extremely p%$@#d that I had not been given a heads up that there was even a chance that this could happen.
I know that nothing is certain when it comes to the weather and which areas are likely to be affected but it really seems to me that people are not given the information until it is to late to act in most cases, i.e Black Saturday and the QLD floods. Thanks for all your thoughts and opinions on this forum because this is where I am given the "heads up" on possible weather events.
droughtbreaker wrote:There will be more very heavy rainfall from the remains of TC Anthony. It does look like it will be mainly in the north at this stage but the potential is there for another massive rain event with a slow moving LWT interacting with the ex TC and coming down over us. Troubling times ahead, thank god for the extreme heat which should bake the ground in the flood areas.
The 1st small cyclone is Anthony Andrew then the 2nd major cyclone next week not sure hasn't been named yet but I'm guessing be a name that starts with B
I was just on ninemsn and they have a story on their frontpage about two cyclones hitting queensland. The second one is called Yasi. I am assuming this is the one you are talking about.
I am no good at posting links but I hope this helps.
I'm losing track of all these cyclones, lol. We will in fact have the remains of two cyclones coming over us, imagine the moisture in the atmosphere when that happens.
If the latter cyclone develops west of 160E longitude it will be called Carlos I'm pretty sure. Otherwise, as Monbulkian mentioned it will be Yasi, after Vania and Wilma have already formed out there this season and Y is next.
EDIT: Two corrections- 1) It would be Charlotte not Carlos as they alternate lists for each new cyclone.
2) If the cyclone has already been named Yasi then that's what it will be if/when it hits QLD
