Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

[Anthony Violi]

Fair to say the predictions made in January in the climate thread may have been a little out?

I trucked water in from Antarctica in preparation...

[Rivergirl]

Melburnians warned to batten down hatches
Katie Weiss
December 21, 2010


MELBOURNE'S long-awaited sun will do battle with tropical storms throughout the summer, the weather bureau says.

Melbourne residents are preparing for a warm and sunny Christmas Day, but forecasting experts expect wet weather to follow.

The seasonal outlook showed that southern Australia would have the wettest summer since 1996, said David Jones, climate analyst with the Bureau of Meteorology.

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Sunday night's storm badly damaged the roof of this house in Aspendale, which was one of the suburbs hardest hit by lightening. Photo: Wayne Taylor

Residents in eastern and south-eastern suburbs had the worst storm damage in Melbourne in the past two years, according to a study by AAMI insurance company.

It showed that Lysterfield was ''the most battered storm suburb'', followed by Belgrave South, Belgrave Heights, Essendon West and Kinglake.

Dr Jones said severe storms tended to brew over Melbourne's east and south-east, including Lysterfield, Upwey and Ferntree Gully. ''When we get major fronts they tend to hit the eastern suburbs.''

During Sunday night's heavy thunderstorms, homes in the south-eastern bayside suburb of Aspendale were among those most damaged. There was heavy rainfall in south-eastern suburbs such as Glen Waverley and Springvale, along with Heathmont in Melbourne's east.

Despite these eastern suburb trends, Dr Jones advised all residents to remain cautious of severe weather as ''there's no part of Melbourne that is free of storms''.

The phenomenon known as La Nina - the opposite to El Nino, which causes ocean temperatures to rise - is believed to account for excessive rainfall up the east coast, as well as record-breaking humidity levels in Western Australia.

Lily, your suburb tops the list

[adon]

I thought that the forecast only a few short weeks ago was a very hot a dry summer????? Did they suddenly wake up and smell the floodwaters???

[Anthony Violi]

Anthony, im sure you know that the accuracy of those outlooks is very ordinary. It changes month to month and relies on historical events given the set up we have.

For the record, heres the latest outlooks. Looks like a good chance of hot weather. I truly hope so, we will be swimming.

[Gordon]

Further to the discussion in latest Obs thread... National Climate Centre seasonal outlooks are very accurate, you just have to reverse them! (Sorry, don't know how to post the image, only the link...)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... 0824.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and what actually happened.... (wonder if south-west WA realised they'd had the kiss of death?)

http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/rai ... 101130.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


And so far this summer - the prediction.... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... eaus.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and what's actually happened so far...

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... th&area=vc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[droughtbreaker]

Sadly, the media pick up on these seasonal outlooks and report them as if they are the gospel on the weather ahead rather than the useless gimmick that they are.

[Gordon]

Yes, despite all the riders, in many ways we'd be better off if these outlooks weren't published. Once they are, most people who don't know any better (and a few who should) treat them as accurate forecasts. It's not just the media - I cringe every time I see a fire chief or gov. minister get up and sternly quote from these outlooks as if they had merit.

I hasten to add that I don't object to the National Climate Centre continuing to work on these outlooks and trying to improve them, but until the results are better than spin-the-wheel quality, surely the best option is to keep them quiet? As an analogy, we don't see BOM releasing local 14 day forecasts - while they no doubt have an internal view on what might happen 14 days out, they don't publish it because it's too unreliable. Why does the same logic not apply to NCC 3 month outlooks?

[Macedonian]

Summer Solstice and it seems like it has been light since 4.30am! A nice brisk 5C here this morning. I was up on the mount yesterday arvo and it was just a shade over 10C for a max. This is my kind of summer. Things are starting to dry out a little here, It doesnt smell so stinky and wet any more.
Looking forward to shorter daylight hours from here in.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, I'm actually looking forward to some proper summer weather. I'm a big fan of four seasons . I don't like ridiculous extremes and record breaking conditions every few days like we seem to have had a lot of in many of the past summers, but I do like some decent hot and dry weather for periods during summer.

Autumn= Settled and calm with occasional rain sometimes heavy, mild to warm temps cooling down and getting wetter and windier towards the end

Winter= cold, dark and wet with possible snow at times

Spring= Warming up as the season progresses, dynamic and changeable weather, strong cold fronts etc.

Summer= Becoming hot and dry for periods broken by an occasional good rain or storm event and some cooler showery days occasionally. Long daylight hours and strong sun.

My ideal year sees all these seasons in the classic sense. If we get these seasons stuffed up I tend to find myself rather unsettled and off centre.

[Anthony Violi]

Gordon, heres what Andrew is talking about regarding these graphs.

http://joannenova.com.au/2010/12/could- ... ore-wrong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Gordon]

Very interesting link, thanks Anthony.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Warming up nicely out there today,
25c slight breeze.
other half is fishing, while I have lawns to mow..

[norfolk]

Breezes have kept it quite mild today down this way. I am feeling this is going to be the summer that never was. 30.9 as the warmest temp this month is pretty poor in my books!

[Supercellimpact]

Jut maxed out at 30.0 degrees. All day we have a north eastely wind, but with the last 20 mins it has switched to NW which has made our maximum at 6.30pm, which is pretty late to our normal time of max temp at 4pm

[droughtbreaker]

Well, there's some hot weather ahead around the new year period. We are talking possible high 30s in parts of Melbourne. The good thing though is there are frequent changes ahead to break things up unlike other years when we would be stuck under the heat for days.

Worth noting that there are also some quite cool days ahead along with the hot days. The outlook is generally looking rather dry but of course that is normal for summer, even La Nina summers don't necessarily have much of an effect on us in the SE of the continent.

[Anthony Violi]

Heres a very interesting weather topic.

Its how NIWA, NZ meteorological Agency, was sued for adjusting data to show massive warming.

It has now had no choice but to admit it fabricated the whole scenario of Global Warming. All the fabricated data has been truncated, and shows no warming since 1960..

Hmmm, how many other agencies worldwide are doing this? 10 points for the correct geuss.

Heres one thats doing it, and will be sued soon enough.

GISS.




Heres the article about the NZ debacle, a landmark day in corrupt organisations and the truth about the Earth coming to the fore.

It also implicates the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in some way.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1012/S ... icated.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BoMshell: feeble support from Aussie peers

NIWA has abandoned the official national temperature record and created a new one following sustained pressure from the NZ Climate Science Coalition and the Climate Conversation Group.

Spokesman for the joint temperature project, Richard Treadgold, Convenor of the CCG, said today: “We congratulate NIWA for producing their review of the NZ temperature record — more than a year after we challenged it — and we think it’s great that NIWA have produced a graph with full details behind it.

“But we note that, after 12 months of futile attempts to persuade the public, misleading answers to questions in the Parliament from ACT and reluctant but gradual capitulation from NIWA, their relentless defence of the old temperature series has simply evaporated. They’ve finally given in, but without our efforts the faulty graph would still be there.”

Mr Treadgold described the replacement as a full exoneration of the criticism levelled at the Coalition by NIWA, saying: “All we ever asked for were the adjustments and the reasons for them. The discourteous reproaches and misleading academic references we received from them were surprising. For them finally to agree with us, throw away the series and recreate it is a complete vindication for us.”

The affair began on November 25, 2009, with the publication of the controversial paper “Are we feeling warmer yet?” Mr Treadgold said that a press release from NIWA the next day was misleading, claiming that their analysis used “internationally accepted techniques.”

“But the ‘technique’ they used has not been published, peer-reviewed, accepted or used anywhere,” said Mr Treadgold. “They since admit that no altitude adjustments were made in Wellington, and the Coalition had not pretended to replicate the series, they had only graphed the data on NIWA’s web site, noted some adjustments had been made and asked: ‘what are they?’ That entirely reasonable question was ignored by the managers of this public agency.”

NIWA’s complete renunciation of the old graph was confirmed recently by their admission in a court document that the graph was not an “official” record. Which means they have also disowned Dr Jim Salinger’s methodology, which created the graph.

BoMshell – feeble endorsement

Mr Treadgold said that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, specifically nominated by NIWA to peer-review their work, do not completely endorse it. He also noted a curious error in the letter from the BoM, which twice omits Hokitika from the list of stations they examined.

“NIWA’s CEO John Morgan claims that ‘the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.’” Mr Treadgold said he was disturbed not to find any such statement. “All it says is that evidence provided by NIWA generally supports (but does not prove) the corrections they made.”

He said, “The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, specifically nominated by NIWA to peer-review their work, give only cautious support to the document. All it will say is that evidence provided by NIWA generally supports (but does not prove) the corrections they made.

“The letter contains no such endorsement. All it says is the evidence NIWA provided supports the corrections they made. The BoM says they will assess ‘the ideas, methods and conclusions of the papers’ for ‘scientific error, internal consistency, clarity and scientific logic’. But they say nothing about that assessment and give only cautious support to the document.

“We suspect the BoM did not fully endorse NIWA's adjustments because the lack of raw data meant that a detailed and complete examination was impossible.

“The BoM omits the reassurance we seek, so, in the end, the single purpose of the peer review — to give the NZ public confidence in NIWA’s work — has not been met.

“The review was not comprehensive, and it is disappointing to hear Mr Morgan claim that it was.”

The science

Mr Treadgold said the people of New Zealand, for the first time, now have an official (although provisional) temperature record of the last 100 years. It is provisional because NIWA still has two steps to take to complete the project:

It is working on calculations of the confidence intervals, or margins of error, which will be published later.

It is yet to publish its methodology, which is to be independently peer-reviewed for a scientific journal.

Coalition scientists look forward to examining this new series closely over the coming months to determine its accuracy. The two steps outstanding from NIWA will be of great benefit in this regard.

Mr Treadgold said: “It’s reassuring to know that, for the first time ever, NIWA understands their own graph. This must be a tremendous relief for NIWA staff and management. It is certainly a relief for the NZ public.

“The review is lengthy and full of detail, which we applaud, and it will take some time to examine. We won’t comment on scientific aspects of the 7SS until that has been done. However, we have some initial observations.

“Almost all of the 34 adjustments made by Dr Jim Salinger to the 7SS have been abandoned, along with his version of the comparative station methodology.

“NIWA is clearly not prepared to defend the adjustments exposed in Are we feeling warmer yet? But it took a court case to force them into a corner.

“NIWA makes the huge admission that New Zealand has experienced hardly any warming during the last half-century. For all their talk about warming, for all their rushed invention of the “Eleven-Station Series” to prove warming, this new series shows that no warming has occurred here since about 1960. Almost all the warming took place from 1940-60, when the IPCC says that the effect of CO2 concentrations was trivial. Indeed, global temperatures were falling during that period.

“The new temperature record shows no evidence of a connection with global warming. Since that’s the reason this tempest in a teacup has brewed in the first place, it should simmer down now.”

[droughtbreaker]

New years Eve and New Years Day are looking pretty good now for a couple of mid to high 30s days in Melbourne, so we are definitely going to see a proper summer now.

I am seeing a thundery change in the progs either NYE or sometime NYD as the models have a huge thermal gradient happening and with La Nina, humidity should remain high in these setups, certainly higher than in neutral/El Nino years. I am actually liking the look of the cold air to the south and hot air inland as we may see some classic summer squall lines etc. if this trend continues.

[Blackee]

Simply stunning morning for England to win the Ashes!

[Blackee]

Cool change whistling through the CBD over the past hour or so!
Temps down 5-7c, DP's up.
No sign of rainfall (as expected).

[Anthony Violi]

Just reading on a footy forum in the weather section, a mate in brisbane, good collingwood man! This is what he said..

Went for a drive out to Wivenhoe Dam today. On the way saw the Bremer river that flows through Ipswich and into the Brisbane river. It was very full. Got to Wivenhoe and they only have one spill gate partially open. One of the officials there said it was because the Bremer river was in full flood and already putting the Brisbane river downstream at risk of bursting it's banks. As I drove back along Coronation Drive you could see the Brisbane river was lapping the top of it's banks in places. Meanwhile, Wivenhoe is above it's top capacity and still rising. They are gonna to have to seriously open more spill gates if we get much more rain. Even where the water comes out of the spill gates, it was in flood because of the back pressure from the Bremer river way down stream. The whole point of building Wivenhoe dam other than water and power supply, was to prevent the Brisbane river ever flooding Brisbane like it did in 1974. But if what you are saying AV about more rain on the way, if this happens, I don't think there will be any choice but to fully open the flood gates and risk flooding to the city.

Just checked the figures...Brisbane average for December is 133mm.

So far they have had a staggering 479mm for the month. Almost half their annual rainfall.

In 1974 January they recieved 871mm, an unbelievable effort.