Victoria- Ex TC Olga's remnants - Rain - 3rd to 6th Feb 2010

[Rhino]

Well GFS going for 25mm for next 24hrs here, don't think it will happen, but crazier things have happened.

Rhino.

[Macedonian]

Just caught up on 10 pages since i logged on this morning, amazing to see the definitely's turn to should be's and now down to maybes. I just drove down to the city this arvo and got back an hour ago.not much going on down there and i thought i would return to Macedon and find it wet, no such luck!, a few mm here thats all.
Good to see some areas are getting some good falls. Not Melbourne, not yet anyhow.

[Karl Lijnders]

US is wrong. Ignore that. No way that area is getting 50mm tonight.

I am the eternal optimist but I am not silly!!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Shell, that looks like a redback spider. We have lots of them where I come from originally, Sydney. They like warm, humid weather.

Rather have a huntsman on my face than a huge, deadly female funnel web spider which happened to me when I was a teenager. I woke up to my cousin saying, "don't open your eyes, lie still" and then she flicked it off my face and killed it.

Robyn, you win with spider stories, YUKK. now that is very unlucky to have the spider, but lucky not to be bitten.
I was presuming with the Red Backs that they were coming out from the heat, but maybe your right, I have seen them come out from the vents from under the house when its really hot, so maybe they like the heat as under the house would be cool. Im onto them have been getting rid of as many as I can over the years, they used to infest my worm farm. Wish it would rain and we dont have to chat about spiders..

[adon]

Gone back to very light rain here. Wind picking up though and looking better to the NNE. Geez I wish this this would come in and hammer down. Sick of the suspence!

Adon - how can a "i'll believe when I see it" bloke like yourself ever suffer from pre-rain tension!!!!

When it's on your doorstep but won't do it......you know

BTW is this freak out Karl with spider stories night?????

I have some rippers about spiders...... put on my workboot the other day and felt a strange feeling under the foot. Turned out to be a wolf spider! Had redbacks in my swag(as well as snakes ) in my bed and in my stubby holder!

[Pengaz]

I reckon theres gonna be some heavy rain eventuate out of that lot streaming down from Yarrawonga and NW Vic. This NE orientation might find itself running into a brick wall-possible line of convergence forming perhaps over western central areas?

Its certainly building up thats for sure...

[Karl Lijnders]

Look this is not funny, I am finding these spider stories are becoming a new diet plan for me, the urge to gag is certainly becoming overwhelming at the mention of spiders... GAH!!

I had one fall on my head the other day and stripped down for all to see, I have no shame, get them off me!!

Now - back to topic and a little more dignity. The rain is definitely tilting SSE as it heads into southern areas, filling in to the NW so that is our only hope.

Might have to scale back further to around 20mm here. That is still excellent Feb rain!!

Matt - Hope your right mate!!

[Petros]

bugger, wrote a decent post , light rain still , glimmer lightning/muffled dist NW thunder then hit the backspace buttin accidently - all lost

[Petros]

US is wrong. Ignore that. No way that area is getting 50mm tonight.

I am the eternal optimist but I am not silly!!

Hmmm - but run a 6 hr satloop with lightning tracker and ignore all else - give a different perspective!!!!

..... and off course Petros's cut-off low scenario he sees in every thing including the lawn clippings.

Still light rain, and distant muffled thunder to our NW.

[Karl Lijnders]

Having a second look at the rainfall along the river there seems to be still a stubborn SSW push to it so maybe some more twists and turns.

The rain is looking more convective to my immediate north and could start dropping some reasonable falls over the N and E suburbs in this hour.

[Proteous]

Adon your one sick puppy, with those spider and snake stories. Just 1.00 mm here which is a little more than I expected. Have just arrived home after puppy school and a Chinese dinner and saw a lightening flash in the distance. I must say on the order of probabilities I wont stay up expecting anything to develop tonight. For this area at least this has to be one of the greatest no shows of all times. Gotta' go out now and water the garden.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

It better Karl.. or we are back to Spider Stories..
I want to know about the snakes and red backs in the swag..

[Karl Lijnders]

You will do better in the easterly component Sat/Sun. I think 10-20mm out of this system is still likely but once we resolve easterly.

Next week with cooler uppers - better prospect for more widely spread convective activity. This is a very sloppy system, but fun all the same.

Shell - I think I will have to save it for our first BBQ event coming soon!! Gah!!

[Lily]

Power has just been out for a while here, couple of big flashes in the sky and I got all excited thinking it was lightning, then confused because there wasn't meant to be any here lol. Turns out it was the substation which isn't far from us, couple of big bangs accompanied the flashes. Hopefully that's not the only action I see tonight, come on Mother Nature!

As an aside, seriously, stop with the spider stories! I'm not going to sleep tonight if you keep it up, I just said to Andrew that I'll be rocking in a foetal position in the corner shortly if you lot keep this up. *shivers* ooooooooh, I can't stand the rotten things!

Edit: I was wondering, why does the 512km radar lag 10 minutes behind the 256 and 128km? Anyone know?

[Karl Lijnders]

Now I am feeling more positive judging by Yarrawonga radar. There appears to be more of S slide of rainfall and thunderstorms through S NSW. Maybe all hope is not lost and that things are actually developing slower than we think!!??

Anyhow - anyone getting those showers to the north let us know. Matt how is it going in Kilmore??

[stratospear]

Am I the only one who thinks the Barometric pressure seems to be a bit too high for decent rain totals???

Sure we've got plenty of moisture and some convergence going on, but where is the uplift?

[I_Love_Storms]

Now I am feeling more positive judging by Yarrawonga radar. There appears to be more of S slide of rainfall and thunderstorms through S NSW. Maybe all hope is not lost and that things are actually developing slower than we think!!??

Anyhow - anyone getting those showers to the north let us know. Matt how is it going in Kilmore??

I was thinking that before Karl it does seem that way. Also the front coming from the west seems to have weakened and the low has taken over from my vantage point.

[Karl Lijnders]

Pressure can be at 1020hPa but with this much moisture and some form of a trigger, we are going to get rainfall that QLD gets in maritime SE winds. It is odd but not unrealistic.

Looking at other factors, there seems to be more going for us than the pressure being too high.

ILS, Keep looking for lightning from there!!! One spark and I am on the roof, if there are no spiders!!

[I_Love_Storms]

ILS, Keep looking for lightning from there!!! One spark and I am on the roof, if there are no spiders!!

I will keep a look out, if there is a good enough event I will head up to a nearby hill

Edit: No lightning seen as yet, but the cloud signatures look interesting, like a flattish but fluffy look, like you see under big storm clouds.

[Macedonian]

A small frog just walked across my dining room, frogs have to be a good sign for rain?
The spiders have been crazy here, a big huntsman was on the computer desk earlier and my lawn is littered with tupperware containers that i have used to deport huntsmans over the last few days, how do they get inside????

Geez i wish it would star to rain.Its gonna be one of those night where i keep one ear awake listening for the rain.