Victoria- Ex TC Olga's remnants - Rain - 3rd to 6th Feb 2010

[rikjpool]

im with jmw on this one. we've been sitting under nothing pretty much all day. had 3mm here so far. the stuff to the north looks to far east, and this trough does not look like stalling...

[adon]

Patience adon, just patience mate. Diurnal cooling and the the passage of the trough/fro. nt will be the key to get things really rolling. All these showers currently are just moistening everything up.

Na tried patients and still didn't work! Just as I left to go back to the mine the wind turned SW and cleared. 5mm all up. If it stuffs around with drizzly showers at home it generally won't rain properly. Seems that we can have too much moisture in the air at home and all it does is to get a filthy deck of low cloud stopping all instability from getting going. 5degree warmer and we would have been swimming. Terrible timing once again for us and we missed out on the big one. Got 25mm the other day but would have been nice to get a follow up for a change. Hopefully floggin down throught the catchments so some good can come of it.

[Karl Lijnders]

See but in all fairness it can be this humid and nothing happen, in this case most of the state has seen rainfall, so there hasn't been a dud. Many areas in the west getting average rainfall and the northwest and northern slopes doing well so far. C areas could also improve in the coming 6hrs.

I love systems that do this, it makes me understand weather more and more. I love the fact we still have the chance of next week being thundery and humid so it is not all lost..

Colder uppers may have helped this system more, but for now it is still having a good go.

[droughtbreaker]

White tailed spider = instant smash, lol. As soon as you see one you just hit them with whatever you have handy. Definitely the right type of weather for huntsmans. I know they are harmless but I've known people who have had one crawl over their face at night whilst they sleep and they have a very painful bite apparently and some people get nausea and other symptoms. Anyway, enough of that, don't want to spook people haha.

C'mon rain!!!! This is a once in 20 year thing happening here with the remains of Olga over us, it would be a massive waste and lost opportunity if anyone misses out in central areas. I'm pretty confident that eastern areas and parts of the catchment will do well at this stage,

[Karl Lijnders]

I think it looks likely that anywhere east of Melbourne will be OK, including much of the eastern suburbs. 20-40mm still looks OK for here and the Dandenongs, but just coming through a little later. Sitting on under 9mm for the day here but 11mm back at work.

Looking at the 512 radar you can see the rain exiting SE over the Bass Coast and angling it's way in from the NE. Melbourne still sits in a very nice area, it is just a little dead right now.

[Rhino]

Will be race to the finish between the trough moving east and the rain moving sth, the trough only needs to stall slightly and the metro area is in with a good chance. But if it was a horse race, I would'nt be betting on it, and could be a photo finish.

Rhino.

[Petros]

Only got one more deep rumble after the one posted 20 min ago, but we have lapsed into steady light/medium rain that I wish could continue all night.

[stratospear]

I somehow think the NE surface flow is going to hinder heavy rain from occurring over Melbourne (Eastern & Northern suburbs particularly) due to rain shadow effect.

[Karl Lijnders]

The trough is actually not moving any faster than what it has. It is the associated wind change and convection that is passing generally through Bass Strait that is moving faster than anything.

Melbourne looks good for 10mm but the rainfall gradient will peak rapidly as you go east of the city.

Some organisation in the cells W of Macedon too and over the remaining C ranges.

Remember this is the Melb AP radar and those cells are a lot heavier than what we can see.

[Karl Lijnders]

I disagree with that Strato,

The nocturnal cooling and slack pressure gradient is going to allow the rain to spill over the divide. You can see that it is having no trouble on Yarrawonga Radar presently.

ustralian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

Issued at 9:10 pm Thursday, 4 February 2010.

A specific severe thunderstorm warning is no longer current, however heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are still likely to lead to local flash flooding within central and eastern Victoria overnight, as indicated in the more general Severe Weather Warning.

[Scott Lawrance]

Just got up to the farm and have been catching up on 4 pages of posts! Measured 6mm in the gauge so that stuff coming down straight towards us from Yarrawonga better deliver!

[dagget]

Trying to rain here, on and off showers but nothing to write home about...we seem to be catching the edges of whatever is passing.

[I_Love_Storms]

Haha this rainband is coming alright can't wait! should see lightning up north soon. I think the low will 'fight' the front for a while, this is where we will get our falls.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

5.5mm.. Patience.. hhmm.
Talking of critters that may come out if there is rain, Neds Corner on the Murry up near where Twister reported the large storm at Lake Cullulleraine, well they have the biggest huntsmen Ive ever seen, their legs wrapp around and touch the other side of tree's. No Joke.. they make your stomach turn.
No big spiders here, one white tail few weeks back snuck into the spare room, but I find that in the hot weather I run into these nasty critters.
in my garage last week and also found on in the ducted heating vent..

[Karl Lijnders]

That is awful awful awful!!! Gah - Shell I nearly chundered everywhere..... *shudder*

That rainband is certainly intensifying and it may not have to be a long 6hr rainband to drop 20-40mm so that is another point to this.

[Pengaz]

After a couple of flashes and a few distant rumbles to the north, we now have some steady rain on and off here. Looks to be a bit of a lull out there to the N of us where all our rain is coming from, so might be an uneventful night out this way if the trough stalls out west.

Still very very humid and muggy, not really sleeping weather in a two storey house. Almost Dead calm here.

[Dez]

Starting to rain here again with some few showers approaching from the North.

[Rivergirl]

Shell, that looks like a redback spider. We have lots of them where I come from originally, Sydney. They like warm, humid weather.

Rather have a huntsman on my face than a huge, deadly female funnel web spider which happened to me when I was a teenager. I woke up to my cousin saying, "don't open your eyes, lie still" and then she flicked it off my face and killed it.

[mutley]

Has GFS downgraded on its latest run? It looks that way. (for Berwick anyway)
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=vic&days=3

Enjoying the read tonight and facinated by the unpredictable nature of weather.

Thanks for the info on the spiders. It was just an observation.

BTW Now the Crickets are going crazy.

[I_Love_Storms]

Not really Mutley, always around 25-50ish... the week ahead looks great though, but that's for another nights discussion