The Australian Weather Forum

Karl Lijnders wrote:Latest US wants to give us 50-100mm in C areas again in the next 12 hours. I am completely and utterly confused. I guess watching the radar and satellite will help in this situation.

Band to the NW is expanding rapidly

My gut is it could easily go either way, anything that forms will be very heavy and if we get it we will be under water, if we miss it the area will remain relatively dry (as to what it could have been)

ILS, you'll get splinters if you sit in the fence too long!

I like the axis of the band approaching Echuca. 20mm will get me close to 30mm for the "event", so I would be more than happy.
Can't see the eastern/north eastern parts escaping with less than 50mm.

Currently 24c with a blustery NNE.

Well the rainband over the W ranges is weakening and this could mean sunshine is possible this afternoon ahead of the trough. That would mean thunderstorms are high on the agenda.

Getting thundery to the northwest now.

The radar looks like a split image of Yesterday morning around this time with the rainband weakening west of us and new convective line though Northern and Central Victoria

Most energy sapping run I have ever been for in my life. Disgustingly humid outside and despite the Northerly breeze, it brought little relief. Relatively low cloud obscured my view to the distant N and NW, copped a very light shower about 45 mins ago.

Yeah like ILS, I'm in two minds about this one.

My gut says that we won't get the predicted big areas of rain south of the ranges but still a possibility of localised thunderstorms. Liking the look of that band stretching north of Echuca to Bendigo though.

Will leave it to the more knowledgeable forecasters here to make a judgement either way

Windy on and off here but hardly a drop since the quick 7.2mm yesterday. There was a heap of low and mid level cloud hooting along from the NW earlier but more of a flat grey sky now.

Quiet morning so far with only the odd pre-emptive request for sandbags.

I'm becoming more confident now, very nice trigger, this line is a very good sign of things to come

Approaching line is strengthening and does have embedded storms, which are throwing out CG's (mainly at the back end of the line).

Why is there no STW on this line, it's moving at an alarming rate and has just gone lightning active and is intensifying as it approaches us????????????

tizza wrote:Why is there no STW on this line, it's moving at an alarming rate and has just gone lightning active and is intensifying as it approaches us????????????

Tizza, only if reports of large hail are received. We have a SWW for Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds, so most of the TS phenomena are covered.

And i hear rumbles! The heaviest of the storm has past with extremely heavy rain

First rumble heard out east!
CBD to cop a lashing!!

Yeah heard a rumble to my NW, had a quick heavy shower but thats now finished ahead of the actual band itself

Southern half of the line has become very lightning active and will give the Mornington Peninsula area a good wallop.

someone turned the light outs in Sth Melbourne...it is black and ominous!

The best thing that can happen is that a clear slot develops and raises the potential energy level, as it did yesterday. Dps got to mid 20's in SA, CAPE values when replotted came up to 3000-4000 in some parts.
Shear is your best asset today, loads of it. Multiple squall lines, and i'm thinking still the potential for supercells in northern parts and into sth nsw.

Storms will be wet, lots of scud, and fast moving. A hard day at the office, but well worth it if you have some sea breeze convergence sculpting out a big shelfy and clean air above.

Pouring! It is a NW-NE covergance band

Getting v dark in the CBD now.... just waiting for the heavens to open...

WHITEOUT!!!!

And the trough is still well back...sit back and relax and enjoy the work of an upper low. I think we will all learn something by tonight.