Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[cutofflow]

62mm totalled all up, currently 21/20. ~12mm today (50 yesty) and still raining.

In the last 133 Januarys Maryboroughs wettest ever is 132.5mm in 1928. Certainty to be broken this week IMO and so will many others

[Monbulkian]

Just read the last 23 pages Not much happening in the Dandenongs as others have mentioned. Welcome to all newcomers to the forum

MTD: 7mm

[I_Love_Storms]

From the BOM

Areas of rain with locally heavy falls and isolated thunderstorms have been
forecast for the Greater Melbourne catchments starting Tuesday afternoon in the
west spreading across the greater Melbourne area into Wednesday and expected to
continue into Wednesday evening. Rainfall totals of 50 to 75mm are expected in
this period.

[Meso]

For some reason WZ has upped our predicted rainfall here for today from 20-40mm to 40-80mm. I assume they use model data to come up with those figures.

[norfolk]

about 5mm has fallen here today, and between 10-15mm yesterday. I really hope flash flooding doesn't occur here over the next few days, especially if it becomes more unstable.

[Rhino]

62mm here so far, more than twice the Jan average already and the real rain has'nt started yet. Rain setting in a little more now and looking good towards my nth.

Rhino..

[Lily]

And in contrast, 3.4mm here, 24C & 22DP

[norfolk]

62mm here so far, more than twice the Jan average already and the real rain has'nt started yet. Rain setting in a little more now and looking good towards my nth.

Rhino..

Looking good? As in it's clearing?

[Rhino]

No, heavy rain Norfolk which is good and bad I guess.

Rhino.

[droughtbreaker]

Very tame here. Hard to get excited by gloomy skies, tepid temperatures, patchy drizzle with bursts of light rain and an atmosphere like an indoor swimming pool. Give me a hot, sunny and humid day with scattered to widespread storms, or a big squall line with thundery rain behind it over this any day. Being stuck indoors for days on end just for drizzly rain is not fun.

Anyway, I think the two keywords for this system are 'potential' and 'possible'. We may see widespread heavy rain and there is the potential for flash flooding. On the other hand many areas may miss out. Friday still looks half decent but then again models are shifting the heaviest falls north. According to GFS I should have had about 60mm here by now but the total is stuck on around 20mm.

I'm not complaining about 20mm, in fact it is a nice fall for January and keeps the soil nicely moist without inundating the garden and destroying it, another 20mm would be enough IMHO. The frustration though is having some of the most miserable weather for the year with none of the entertainment value I was hoping for. I was looking forward to some torrential rain and a bit of thunder and lightning, at least that makes being stuck indoors half bearable. Instead it is pretty depressing around here.

Just waiting for half the garden to wilt with fungal infection which will make for a magnificent Autumn.

I'm starting to get sick of this tropical La Nina weather. I want our normal climate back.

[Skywalker]

Just arrived home and have checked the gauge, 20mm so far for the system here (yet to empty gauge).

[rychenroller]

I'm starting to get sick of this tropical La Nina weather. I want our normal climate back.

Nonsense!

30mm for the system here, same dp, temp and skies as everyone else.

[Blackee]

Latest MTSAT Loop show you how much moisture is around the country (and offshore)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... mscol.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stratospear]

Latest GFS has most of the big falls occurring in Western half of the state. It resembles the system from Jan 2007 with a trough extending back into the top end of NT.

[Didjman]

another 7mm since this morning making 14mm for the event so far. Temp now 21.6/19.7. RH 89% light breeze swinging between SE & E, with baro 1008.1.
Peter

[Anthony Violi]

Still very humid, in fact is just crazy. It has to let go in a big way soon, so i think its going to be a very wet night and morning tomorrow.

Still plenty of punch left though by Thursday and Friday for another 50mm at least through Melbourne.

Averages demolished for everybody once this system is done.

[Meso]

40.6mm all up here so far. I reckon we will see some big totals overnight tonight and into the morning.

[Blackee]

Media are now all over this event like a rash.
Already stating that this event will break the monthly rain record.

[Anthony Violi]

The only thing i just saw Wes that was crap was linking the hail storm in March to La Nina...quite clearly we were still in a decaying El Nino..

David Brown seems very confident of the falls ACCESS is going for, which mirror GFS totals of 200mm plus for much of West Central and NW Vic.

[Rhino]

Storms near Griffith making a very fast beeline towards the nth country and west central areas for later by the looks. Steady rain here for the last 45 mins.

Rhino.