Vic: Epic low pressure sequence over SE AUS - Sept 28 - Oct 4 2016

[Australis(Shell3155)]

4.5 hours of mowing, one looking good, one like a slashed paddock.
If I had the energy I'd go do one again, but that ain't happening..
Let it rain - Amanda Marshall

[Hawker]

Only 2 hrs for me and just finished.
Not much rain coming from that band to the west,
The better rain rain might be in the band near Adelaide now

[Timster]

Just starting to see the rain from the first part of the system, wind has dropped quite a bit, temperature too in the last 30 mins

[James]

Not holding my breath for storms, they appear to be forming well to the north of the state again, it has not really been anything remarkable weather wise here lately except for the wind..even thats not unusual for this time of year.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

It's blowing now...
been holding that hat on all day, and think this stinging skin might be a touch of winter sunburn

[Gordon]

The radar seems to be overestimating the impressive looking band over us right now (Ballarat area) and totals back to the west are small so far.

I assume the main event mustn't be showing up yet.

[I_Love_Storms]

Supposed to hit later tonight. My guess is main stuff will be east of Central. I reckon 10mm likely in central. Then another 15-20mm over next couple of days. Adelaide area, NE Vic, and Eastern Tas are going to get smashed with flooding by mid this week.

This is latest GFS for next 12-18 hours:



And then for next 8 days:

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like BOM are still going for an EC scenario of an inch or so

Heavy rain later. Windy.Chance of any rain: 90%
Melbourne area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Heavy rain and thunderstorms possible later this evening. Winds northerly 40 to 60 km/h.

- That's a wild forecast from the usually conservative BOM

[Horts]

Melb Metro force field in fine form again, for now!

[I_Love_Storms]

Watch the second band which is forming

[Gordon]

Yes BOM still have heavy rain for us in the STW updated at 4.56 pm:
"...HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to accompany the cold front across the same districts later this afternoon and this evening in the west and overnight over central and eastern regions. Falls up to 25mm should be common and isolated totals may reach 50mm with thunderstorms and on the higher range.
Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne... "

The radar is now a bit more 'honest' with steady rain falling here.

[JasmineStorm]

BoM now has 20 warnings or watches in place for Vic. Lake Hume today had to open another 3 flood gates (10 now open!) Northern Vic getting nervous with the next 72 hours.....

[Sean]

First band decaying faster than a punnet of strawberries. Not a single drop on this side of the bay as yet.

No hope for the second band, either, which I reckon will meet the same fate.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Might have to photograph the Apple and cherry blossom, may be the last I ses of it..
just when we had the water to improve health, the wind and heavy rain knock it off.

[Horts]

No faith for either system so far, force field wiping out the first band and I reckon will do the same for the second.

I'm sat on my deck in Safety Beach with a few beers waiting for either of these to roll over, think I'll be here longer than I thought!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Doesn't sound like. Bad thing Horts.... enjoy. Perfect wether for it.

[Geoff]

As usual the rainshadow effect will be in operation for those of us south of the divide. I expect the rain to start making it across in the early hours and through tomorrow morning.

[stevco123]

Can someone get a needle and pop this bubble sitting over melbourne for the past 4 weeks?

[Horts]

Heavy patch sitting over Ballarat region now, decent amount in it will be interesting to see if it can get over the force field.

All in all though great day weather wise. So good to finally feel some decent warmth!

[Timster]

Yes, good steady rain now around Ballarat, 3mm in the last couple of hours. Pressure down to 996

edit - 5mm now