Awesome to hear Peng!!
Safe travels Matty, you should have a pretty entertaining drive up!!
A bit of light rain at the mo. Like us hoping for plenty more however the trough seems to be speeding up a bit too much for my liking.
Sniper wrote:Awesome to hear Peng!!
Safe travels Matty, you should have a pretty entertaining drive up!!
A bit of light rain at the mo. Like us hoping for plenty more however the trough seems to be speeding up a bit too much for my liking.
I'm guessing it will stall overnight. That is a guess though haha...
6.7mm here so far with a massive rainfall gradient from the ranges down to the foothills with 12mm for Mt Macedon MW (somewhere up the mountain) and just 2mm at Gisborne. EC picked that and I was going on about it this morning how I thought it was weird but it was right 100%.
For that reason I'm just a little bit worried about the rest of this system. EC has next to nothing here for the rest of the system after a spectacular downgrade this morning. GFS, LAPS and MLAPS going nuts which is why BOM have gone nuts as well with all the warnings etc. they are 100% following those models. Because EC has picked the system very well so far I think it may be a bit of a folly that BOM have decided to completely ignore that model.
Anyway, not saying we won't all get smashed by heavy rain. The satellite image looks fantastic and there is a stack of moisture around, genuinely tropical out there and we have the interaction with the trough coming up tonight. Personally I reckon it looks great but I just can't get over the niggle of doubt because of the EC downgrade for here.
Nothing to report here, an hour ago we had mid level Cj, now a thinning veil of As, 27C but 63%RH so just hanging in there waiting, clouds motionless. Gives me time to catch up on the past 500 pages of this thread since last night
Hi Andrew, extremely promising on the Yarrawonga radar some massive cells up around there. Cells near Mansfield now are heading our way as well, these cells will only become more intense as they edge closer to the trough. That is where I am getting my optimism from at the moment.
I would say about 2-3 hours away from Eastern suburbs from the real stuff (going off the current movement of roughly 60-70kmh)- yellow, orange, red. Nice soaking shower right now.
Edit: Getting heavier.
Last edited by I_Love_Storms on Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Issued at 11:10 am Thursday, 4 February 2010,
Valid until midnight on Thursday, 4 February 2010.
Exceptionally moist conditions, so heavy rainfall is expected with or without
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are most likely over central parts of the state and
the Northern Country but also have a reasonably high probability in the east.
The far southwest, west of a surface trough is least likely to have
thunderstorms but will still receive locally heavy rainfall. The other
thunderstorm severe phenomena, large hail stones and damaging wind gusts are
most likely over northern parts where instability is greatest.
I reckon this is a Victorian record thunder prog. chart!!!
How bizarre is this. GFS is going for 130mm here for the system with one of its crazy spikes it is so famous for. EC on the other hand has 2.2mm. What on earth is going on?! Seriously I have no idea what to expect tonight, it could be anything.
droughtbreaker wrote:How bizarre is this. GFS is going for 130mm here for the system with one of its crazy spikes it is so famous for. EC on the other hand has 2.2mm. What on earth is going on?! Seriously I have no idea what to expect tonight, it could be anything.
Good old isolated thunderstorms for GFS Scenario. EC 2.2mm is the most ridiculous thing possible. You will definitely receive more than 2.2mm haha
After reading about the EC forecast I checked for Mitcham again, and also a huge downgrade for tonight, but im not real worried looking at what is going on out there. So much moisture with triggers just can't go wrong can it? About 7mm here sonce this morning, trying hard to set in over the last hour, just picking up again now and very dull for 7pm... Im Big Kev Excited!
Looks very nice for heavy rain overnight. Looks to me like 2 peaks with the first been whatever rain survives the journey south from the north. The next will be with the chanage going through west central vic now, some very good falls 20mm+ with this band alone going by recent obs.
BTW
EC has well in excess of 30mm for Melb overnight when you look at the metogram.
What on earth is going on?! 
Seriously I have no idea what to expect tonight, it could be anything.
