The Australian Weather Forum

The LOW keeps on giving here in Tassie. Focus of the rain overnight has been in the North West and West. 105 mm at Mt Read, 68 mm at Borradaile Plains, 40 mm at Sheffield 37 mm at Meander, 34 mm at Western Creek, 30mm at Brady's Lake, 16mm at Wynyard, 14 mm at Devonport and only 1 mm in Launceston.

Just 0.8mm's here in the last 24 hours, giving me a system total (3 days) of 6mm's.
It is drizzling lightly at the moment though.

Classic orographic enhancement in the flow up here this morning. Drizzle down below is becoming quite moderate rain up here, totals building fast, now up to 7mm since it started overnight. October off to a flying start.

Pouring up here currently. Had 10mm since midnight. Event surged to nearly 20mm

Lucky they don't play the Grand Final up here in Ferny Creek as the fogs so thick you'd get lost running around

Hi all,

Been a while since my last post. Tomorrow early afternoon looks like delivering a pretty decent line of storms/heavy rain through Melbourne along with a decent band of strong winds with the change that peaks around the city.

In my opinion this looks much better than all the hype of last week.

Still looks like 25-35mm for us with next front. Will it be winter's last hurrah?

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the
Central,
North Central and parts of the
South West and
Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:12 am Saturday, 1 October 2016.

WEATHER SITUATION:
Strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to reach western Victoria late Sunday afternoon, crossing central parts of the State Sunday evening and the east early Monday morning.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop on Sunday morning about parts of the Wimmera, South West, Central and North Central districts.
These Winds are expected to extend to elevated parts of eastern Victoria late sunday afternoon and evening. A squally westerly change and local thunderstorms are expected to accompany the cold front as it enters western Victoria later in the afternoon.

Locations which may be affected include Maryborough, Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:15 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

www.bom.gov.au



and flood watches -

Warnings current:
Flood Warning - Murray River (NSW),
Severe Weather Warning 1 (VIC),
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Victoria,
Flood Watch - Greater Melbourne (VIC),
Flood Watch - Glenelg and Hopkins Rivers (VIC),
Flood Watch - North East Victoria (VIC),
Flood Watch - Goulburn and Broken Rivers (VIC),
Flood Warning Summary (VIC),
Minor Flood Warning for the Glenelg River,
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Mitta Mitta River,
Moderate Flood Warning for the Kiewa River,
Moderate Flood Warning for the Ovens and King Rivers,
Minor Flood Warning for the Broken River,
Minor Flood Warning for the Seven and Castle Creeks,
Minor Flood Warning for the Broken Creek,
Minor Flood Warning for the Goulburn River,
Minor Flood Warning for the Campaspe River,
Moderate Flood Warning for the Loddon River,
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Avoca River,
Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River upstream of Lake Hume.

#stillnohope

Still steady light rain here in Mount Evelyn, 9mm according to the AWS, probably more if the spiders are blocking it up again.

Update:

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, North Central, Wimmera and parts of the Northern Country and North East Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:42 pm Saturday, 1 October 2016.
WEATHER SITUATION:
Strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to reach western Victoria late Sunday afternoon, crossing central parts of the State Sunday evening and the east early Monday morning.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop on Sunday morning about parts of the Wimmera, South West, Central and North Central districts then extend to parts of the Mallee, Northern Country and Northeast during the afternoon.
These Winds are expected to push further into elevated parts of eastern Victoria Sunday night but will moderate in the west.
HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible later in the afternoon and evening over the same districts. This is mostly in association with the cold front but thunderstorms may also occur just ahead of the front.
Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

More rainfall forecast for tomorrow afternoon with storms possibly too...

Yes looks like we're not out the woods yet! 7mm here to 9am to start October, plus a couple of mm since.

12mm for the last day. Event up to 20mm (or there abouts).

Nice morning, but winds are getting gusty out there. Cracker of a front late arvo in the west and evening in central/west. Progs pretty keen of 20-30mm pretty widespread with the front (away from the west) and more on the northeast ranges. Just keeps the totals ticking over.

Bit of a battle going on today,
bom 10 day only wants rain for east of Melbourne.
Bom says otherwise
But rain starting to develop out west.
Big question will it, or wont it?, or where

That band along the border looks to be consolidating - both satpic and radar. wind to 40klm here atm. Baro dropping through 1003.5.
Peter

It's a strange looking system to be honest. It appears to have 5 or 6 separate narrow bands of showers/rain training across one behind the other. I suppose that gives us 5 or 6 times as many chances to get something out of it.
Should start to see some thundery activity firing up soon with the warmer temperatures and instability increasing.
Wind is starting to roar through the tree tops here now, 18.3C and mostly sunny.

Afternoon all, blowing in the 60's km/h at the moment here, baro near 1000 and dropping quickly, ground and cloud lightning strikes in NW Vic now appearing on the tracker.

Yeah, the wind part, of the warning is spot on,
very gusty here, and we are in a sheltered spot

Loads of instability.... I think it might be electric in central vic later this evening. Melbourne airport just shut a run way..... Think I might start playing a bit of Phil Collins soon..... I'm starting to feel it in the air

Gusting over 100 down the bay.

I concur Mick ... very windy down the bay!! Feel like the roof is about to blow away!