The Australian Weather Forum

Im glad to hear that its suppose to be a night event here. its only just started to rain here now. Only light drizzle as well. Not to much here yet.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the
Northeast and parts of the
Alpine Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:18 pm Thursday, 4 February 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Wodonga, Wangaratta, Corryong, Bright, Falls Creek and Mt Hotham.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera, North Central, East Gippsland, West and South Gippsland and Western districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.

Severe thunderstorms are currently being observed on radar in the vicinity of Albury-Wodonga and may move further south and west from their current position over the next couple of hours.

21mm in Trentham so far (at Clyves) and I've got 19.4mm....

Forecast for the rest of Thursday
Cloudy. Rain becoming heavier with the chance of thunderstorms. Winds northerly averaging 25 to 35 km/h tending southwesterly up to 25 km/h later in the evening.

Forecast for Friday
Cloudy. Heavy rain easing to isolated showers by the the afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h tending southerly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon.

Who needs to move to Qld when its like this?

Mt Gambier radar has died too.

The prom is lightning city atm.

Trough just passing through here now not good news, event almost over for here NOOOOOO.

Light rain falling atm and after hours of light skies, sun and very little rain been mostly finewtoday lol.
Just missing the rain its finally dark and raining how it should be.

Nice Storms to my E SE NE N on radar but cant see them here, this will move south and fill into more nice rain areas lucky down south.

Melb in sweet spot for once yeah right like always lol

Hoping NE can get big dump tonight and tomorrow those rivers really need it.

Sw have done real well lots of 20-40mm falls down there lucky them shame not same in NW but few 10mm so thats not to bad and still bit more to come

Also after 15 days in a row above 30c today was finally below 30c yay but back again on Saturday and next week but with humid air so thats good

On and north of hills will do well tonight as will central areas

Jake has no Internet at the moment but wanted me to tell everyone know he had 2 flangs and lightning on and off for a while now as well as persistent rain.

Next 12 hours looks awesome for central areas! And if I ever leave work I will be able to enjoy it!

Hey Anthony and Twister - that's great news re north of the divide and central areas but just curious as how you can tell that?

Thanks Anthony. Internet slowly loaded in now!! Damn slow internet during good weather events.

Cloudy all day, temperature in the mid 20's at school with the humidity way high, DP in the 20's for us as well. Very humid! Patchy rainfall on and off all day at school and home, but probably just after 4pm things started to pelt down, and still is, very heavy, we have flash flooding. Also received a thunderstorm from the NW, the cell originally near Horsham that Wes was talking about earlier. It has chucked out a couple of flangs (so cool ) and lightning on and off from about 3.30 pm as well, but has now died looking at the latest tracker. Latest radar indicated moderate to heavy rainfall persisting here for at least another couple of hours, that's very good news.

For areas that have seen not much rain yet, don't worry, central parts in for some great rain overnight as the two systems very slowly edge and evolve over you guys. Watch out for further thunderstorms as well in this very moist and unstable environment, great for nocturnal activity IMO.

And Shane, welcome mate, thanks for the link to the tracker.

My forecasts and discussion soon!

We are up to 15 days temp above 34c. No rain as yet could hear thunder 1600hrs but all missed us.

Just arrived home to find 4.5mm in the gauge. Now the wait for the main menu begins.

5.4mm so far which has been good but not much in the last few hours pretty sure tonight will be in for some good rain and a few flashes and rumbles fingers crossed anyway currently overcast and very very humid very Queensland like weather an surf atm so im happy with the waves at present :partymany: :hangloose:

Cautious behaviour by many posters today, been fairly quiet I feel that the 'lets not talk about it because we will jinx it' theory may be in operation, but plenty of rain is lining up.

Good area of convection taking place of C VIC presently and huge storms over the NE will broaden into rain. They are moving SW and will merge with the thundery rain band over the west at the moment which is also increasing in intensity.

Should see 50mm falls widespread through C areas still.

After getting to 34.6C in partly cloudy NE'ly, a thick deck of mid-level Cj passed over providing us with a brief and very rare storm travelling in from the NE - 1.5mm and clouds back high at mid level, now at 27C and calm. Clouds moving very slow if at all.

Heavier storms formed over the N side of the Strezleckiis S of Traralgon as Mildura advised they would. MLAPS/LAPS prog total rain to be less than 15mm from here to Sat. Would be very disapointed with that (esp. the comensurate low rain into catchments) - but the big picture is massive.

Very tropical outside and we have a storm warning - but nothing brewing atm. :hangloose:

Karl Lijnders wrote:Cautious behaviour by many posters today, been fairly quiet I feel that the 'lets not talk about it because we will jinx it' theory may be in operation, but plenty of rain is lining up.

Good area of convection taking place of C VIC presently and huge storms over the NE will broaden into rain. They are moving SW and will merge with the thundery rain band over the west at the moment which is also increasing in intensity.

Should see 50mm falls widespread through C areas still.

What time do you reckon it'll hit Melb Karl?
Looking brilliant on the Yarrawonga radar, plenty of colour, thickening up and heading straight for us.

Karl Lijnders wrote: Good area of convection taking place of C VIC presently and huge storms over the NE will broaden into rain. They are moving SW and will merge with the thundery rain band over the west at the moment which is also increasing in intensity.

Should see 50mm falls widespread through C areas still.

Definitely Karl, the convection is developing, it will explode at any time now and the longer it takes the better really. Yarrawonga radar shows numerous intense cells. BOM won't forecast heavy rain for nothing. I will go 60mm for CBD, 100mm for your house, and 75mm for Lilydale We will see.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Northeast, Alpine and parts of the Northern Country, East Gippsland and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 6:01 pm Thursday, 4 February 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Shepparton, Wodonga, Wangaratta, Corryong, Bright and Falls Creek.

The most active area of thunderstorms has now moved to be near and north of Wangaratta and they have been propagating in a south to southwesterly direction. As a result the threat area has been extended further to the southwest. Heavy rainfall and localised flash flooding remains by the far the most likely severe phenomena.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 9:05 pm.

EC has 31mm for Melbourne over a 6 hour period tonight starting from 7pm. I think they should be about right here but I think they are greatly underestimating the activity from midnight onwards.

Just about to leave for the drive up to Yarrawonga ... could be an exciting and eventful trip up

22/19 here - humid and overcast and just recently stopped raining, but the sky has that "calm before the storm" look...

Good Luck everybody and fingers crossed for some very decent falls for all.

WE had a ripper little storm at work this arvo-estimate about 10mm fell within 20 mins, everything seemed to be quite localised with some parts of Traralgon dry! And geez it got real dark as it was developing along the foothills, before bucketing down with the wind picking up notably. The leadup was superb, with dense convection occurring and streaming in from the NE, felt like the tropics!

0.5mm to report at home here in Sale-very humid and muggy and more showers/storms developing to the NE that might fill out towards us later tonight as the system wraps around.

Experiencing a light-medium level shower at the moment.

EDIT: Just got heavier after i submitted the post