Victoria: A humid thundery week - 13th-20th Feb 2011

[Karl Lijnders]

IDV65758
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:30 am Friday, 18 February 2011,
Valid until midnight on Friday, 18 February 2011.
Thunderstorms are likely for the majority of the state, particularly in the area including near/s of the ranges. Given the airmass is so humid, flash flooding is the most likley phenomena and therefore severe thunderstorms likely
Thunderstorms are also likely in the northwest later tonight, associated with a low pressure system expected in the western part of the state around midnight. Thunderstorms are likely to be severe, with strong winds, flash flooding a risk.
Chance of a thunderstorm in the far north and the east coast.

[blackmamba]

What time will these likely hit?

[Karl Lijnders]

I suspect isolated showers and thunderstorms would be occurring anywhere after 3pm, but mainly about the ranges. I cannot see them being a widespread event as per Wednesday.

Guess watch and wait.

[norwester]

Its calm here with a few spots of rain on and off. Doesn't look nearly as threatening yet as the last couple of days did which produced a big nothing rainwise. Wine and dried grape growers madly trying to get whats left of the crops off, unusual to be picking the wine grapes in the daytime! New solar panels + cloud makes me grumpy LOL!

[blackmamba]

Thanks for that.
As I think I've shown in my 12 posts here I can be quite nervy about driving in extreme weather conditions (read: 'severe'). So was wondering if it was worth my while to try and get home, or hang out longer where I'm about to head.

[schitzengiggles]

..you are supposed to read it, that if storms do occur in that red shaded area, that its likely they will be severe,
NOT that Severe storms will form right across this area and everyone one will get one.

[Duckey]

Only one way to describe my reaction to that thunderstorm chart.....

Was I wrong in my assumption that this was more of a widespread rain event? I didn't really see the potential for thunderstorms south of the ranges. Just a lot of rain.

[schitzengiggles]

I'm hearing reports on the CB scanner that someone up near Bendigo called Greg has just dialled an ambulance due to his foofer valve exploding.

[schitzengiggles]

Just a lot of rain.

I wrote two epic sagas last night, read the first one, that should explain it to you, you cheeky storm nerd you.

[johnno]

Some showers and storms developing in far SW Vic from the NE ahead of the main rain

[Petros]

That unbelievable service - thanks Dav/RG!

Just cold heavily overcast easterly to report in the LV - a snotty day so far.

[stratospear]

Amazing what a slow moving storm can do with 38mm in Inglewood last night. Nothing here.

Many of my friends keep asking me: "Why does it always rain on Fridays and Saturdays? This summer I've hardly been able to play tennis or cricket". I've been saying that the upper troughs (based on LWT) have been passing thru about every 7 days as they orbit Antarctica... I remember a similar situation occurred in Feb 2002 when the end of each week ended with a bang, albeit with much lower rain totals than 2011: http://www.australianweathernews.com/da ... 002_02.HTM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sunny skies and humid as anything atm.

[Hamlan]

I'm hearing reports on the CB scanner that someone up near Bendigo called Greg has just dialled an ambulance due to his foofer valve exploding.

ah yes the old foofer valve....they can bu unreliable things the let go at the most unfortunate times

I hope that someone up near Bendigo called Greg recovers well from his fooferectomy and lives to chase another day

[schitzengiggles]

Brad, that of course was in relation to the said chart, and is entirely relevant to this thread.


In other news, if someone happens to stumble across a set of marbles that look like they're missing, please send me a PM. I'm offering a lucrative reward of a three day old cooked sausage, six buttons, a piece of string and an empty tin can.

[Karl Lijnders]

ROFL!!!! Oh dear!!!

Convection building at all points of the sky with some modest Cj over the N sky from here and over the hills to the NE with Cu over the western and bigger Cj back towards the south and southwest.

Could be very well interesting with this cirrus shield thinning as the low deepens and compresses and squeezes the atmosphere further west.

[Duckey]

I wrote two epic sagas last night, read the first one, that should explain it to you, you cheeky storm nerd you

Hahaha sorry just read them then!! Great read - and I am guilty as charged, I am a storm nerd. Or storm jellybean.

[Tempest]

The low looks pretty impressive over SA on the national sat loop at the moment. More like a ball of rain rather than a band, rolling down the coast towards us. Is the main "ball" likely to roll right over Melbourne or will it take a dive to the south before making it all the way here?

[daviescr]

I like your definitions Schitzengiggles, but I feel there is a middle ground - surely?? Some of us are hobbled to be weather jellies by things like (but not limited to) 10 month old babies, but come bed time all ties are gone, enabling 'local storm jellybean-ness' like myself - case in point the event of last weekend when I got to go on a suburban chase.... only goes a little way to reduce my satiety, but better than a kick in the chuff

Anyway, just at Tulla at our warehouse, and liking the look of the way the cloud is burning off so quickly. The air smells of the ocean (or is that aviation fuel), so some interesting dynamics going on.

Some lovely low-level 'fish gills' too:

[Karl Lijnders]

Classic middle level moisture stacking. Also when you see patterns like this in the sky, then there is likely rain in the coming 12-24hrs.

Chance of a storm still this afternoon but I am thinking more on the eastern flank of the rainband as it is moving in from the west.

[schitzengiggles]

I found it interesting that the "fish gills" don't show up on the sat pic.