Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[droughtbreaker]

Nothing exciting here yet. It is very humid, cloudy and drizzly showers at times but we haven't been hit with any really heavy rain yet. The only period of rain we have had that you could call reasonably heavy was early yesterday morning. As others have mentioned, EC is going for the heaviest rain overnight into Wednesday and then Friday. 50-100mm still seems likely for most but aside from isolated flash flooding I can't see any significant flood problems.

[jmw2207]

The London mist has set in here.....wet blanky anyone?

[Alexia]

Its raining very lightly at present.

[Blackee]

I have created a separate thread in Breaking Weather to house detailed Flood Watches & Warnings during this event.

Please feel free to post updates in there and provide one liners in the obs thread stating an update to a Flood Warning or new Flood Warning has been posted. This will reduce the size of the obs thread and make tracking obs easier.

Of course, please keep up to date by checking the Bureau of Meteorology website for the latest information @ http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Blackee]

Flood Watch just issued for Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra,
Dandenong And Bunyip)

[HarleyB]

Could be a spot of bother with the Yarra River I think. Upper Yarra reservoir has already had 50mm so far and with another 100mm Yarra Glen could get into trouble.

Rain currently moving into North Central areas, maintaining its intensity. Could be 10mm in it for us here. Even if we get 200mm, I honestly dont believe the Goulburn River will flood this time.

[cutofflow]

56.4mm for the event. Currently stuck in a shower stream from the north. The ground is obviously wet but there's not much water around, could handle another 50-75mm tonight any much trouble. If we get that much or more and friday comes off might see minor-moderate flooding.

Unbelieve to see that the Loddon river at Serp (Just below Laane) has only just started running again, yet way further downstream at Loddon weir its chugging along and at Appin its a torrent! Phenomanal amount of rain in the flat country very hard to get run off and water in the river down there! (and in January!). Wish there were some gauges out there to get a better idea, must be a sea for those farmers out there.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60149.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Blackee]

Flood watches in place are purely for the next 24-36 hours.

IMO, Friday will be d-day with the introduction of a weak cold front and most the state will be wet and primed to flood.

EDIT: OBS @ Melb Air indicate rates of 18mm/hr.

[Rhino]

Been light to steady rain for last couple of hours here, but tropical stuff. Went outside before in what I thought was a light shower and got nice and wet in no time. Expecting nth central area to fill in over the coming hours on radar.

Rhino.

[droughtbreaker]

One of the features of this system is a lack of focus with very patchy rainfall so far. As David mentioned, some places are getting 50mm+ whilst others are seeing very little. The intense moisture through the atmosphere seems to be inhibiting storm development (lack of sun, too much low and middle level cloud) and there is obviously no real mechanism atm to trigger widespread precipitation. We might have to wait until the low forms and moves close to us to see this.

[mick]

Got a pretty good tropical downpour on the go here atm.

[Blackee]

Very , very dark low base over NW Port Phillip Bay.
Ready to go pop!

EDIT: Now showing as orange on radar!

[Lily]

[
Radar is most curious - once the cells reach a certain level they start to move westward. Really evident in the cells out east which initially move north->south and then start moving north->south->southwest.

Was just looking at that too, Hillybilly. The one approaching Oakleigh at the moment looked to be coming at us, but has now swerved to a more SW'ly direction. Less than 1mm here today.

[Instability]

I have picked up only 2.7mm in Burwood since Saturday I appear to be in a bit of a leeward position to the mountains around Kinglake, and subsequently appear to be in a bit of a dry spot. No complaints though so far - more rain at my place means more lawn mowing

Rog.

[Skywalker]

Rain has been constantly on and off, light to moderate here at work. I'm finding this rain extremely annoying more than anything, it's not heavy enough to get excited about but at the same time it is preventing me from finishing off some outdoor work around the house.

[Hamlan]

Very , very dark low base over NW Port Phillip Bay.
Ready to go pop!

EDIT: Now showing as orange on radar!

Had a great view and time watching this cell develop into a nasty looking black monster over the western suburbs as it moved south. Visually, it had an ominous dirty yellow colour to its core and looked to be dumping some serious rain in its wake. Not the biggest cell but it looked great

[Andy]

Radar really starting to fill in now nth of here. Rain getting heavier now, dead calm and of course ten million percent humidity....
Been a good read so far - Nice work all.

About a mil here since 9am but that will change soon!

[Blackee]

I took a couple of pics on the Nokia and it really does the beast no justice.

[nafets]

I'm not sure if there will be any sort of flash flooding around Melbourne because theres nothing heavy heading in from the north judging by the radar. But like always i'm happy to be proven wrong.

[Rhino]

If the BOM flood watch is anything to go by things won't start firing untill later today so would'nt be to concerned at the moment. Heavy drizzle here now although not showing up on radar, 57mm so far.

Rhino.