Vic: Epic low pressure sequence over SE AUS - Sept 28 - Oct 4 2016

[Sean]

70mm or thereabouts here. Was hoping to crack 100mm but none of the systems have delivered here. We're relied totally on the scraps leftover, hence the biggest rainfall this month was only 18mm. No hope for Sunday. The weather only wants to rain where people don't want it atm.

[Dane]

Beautiful sunny spring day here with light winds.
You wouldn't think the Bar was only 993hpa.
Some showers on radar to the North and East of the
Melbourne area, all moving away to the NE.

[stevco123]

Beautiful sunny spring day here with light winds.
You wouldn't think the Bar was only 993hpa.
Some showers on radar to the North and East of the
Melbourne area, all moving away to the NE.

It'll shift and come towards us as the low moves to the east. Probably not much in it though

[nafets]

100mm exactly this month here!! First month since 2011 to crack the ton. As has been noted the rain shadow has been in full force south of the ranges so that total could have been a whole lot more.

[Duckey]

Heading back from Kennett River today, and about a km out of Winchelsea we spotted this funnel cloud! Saw it come down about 1/2 way to the ground before it retreated up again - must be done very unstable air out there!

It happened at 1:15pm - Snapped some pics with the iPhone will upload when we get home.

[Skywalker]

Absolutely beautiful sunny conditions down here on the island with no rain at all in sight.

[Andy]

Hi all what a great read over the last few days. Down here we are finally getting our first significant rainfall of the entire event. Looks like a bit more to come in the next hour or so. Its been a funny afternoon, quite pleasant for the most part but showers just to the north almost backbuilding earlier. So anyway, thought I'd get away with a quick treatment of aqua deck on the decking area...... hmm plenty of aqua now!

[Macedonian]

It was warmer here today than i was expecting. 9.5C
What did melbs get to?

[Geoff]

Water temp. in Port Phillip Bay is around 14C today, so quite cold and is killing these showers crossing it stone dead.

[Duckey]

Here's the pics of today's funnel cloud near Winchelsea. Please excuse the quality - was snapped with the iPhone through the windscreen while on the highway!

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest EC is huge for Ne vic and Tas

[Geoff]

Great pics Duckey, definitely a funnel there, never seen one myself.
ILS which EC model are you looking at?

[I_Love_Storms]

A friend has weatherbell subscription and he advised me that. Yr.no has it as well but I don't know how to see the large state maps, only specific towns, but I tested it for a few towns and it was in line. East Central is looking at around 25-50mm. North East 150mm. Tas widespread 100-150mm

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest GFS looks like it is lining up in line with EC as well. More recent Gfs runs have been trying to push the system further East. If it is a bit more west it'll be good for us in the eastern burbs.

[JasmineStorm]

Good evening all, some nice detail from ILS and .... I've had a look as well ...if you compare a good hand full of models, rainfall totals are all over the place like a mad dogs urine, so I think I need another run at the models in the morning. My old mate the CMC model is predicting dooms day Sunday night / Monday morning on the NE ranges and interestingly it creeps into the Outer NE of Melbourne.

As for Robyn, she's decaying but still swinging a couple of haymakers down there in NW Tassie and sending a few more showers over Vic. I've clocked up 43mm now.

Interesting day on the models again tomorrow

[93ben]

Well that was an interesting drive to Coonabarabran, NSW. Was basically isolated showers from Victoria to Dubbo. It's pretty much clear in Coonabarabran which is great for the star gazing what I'm going to be doing this weekend. There were times where the visibility was bad. A lot of the creeks looked like large rivers when we went over them and the rivers were like lakes! I was then greeted by a couple of rainbows and even a double one! Hopefully the drive back home is safe as the weather doesn't look that great in Melbourne over Sunday and Monday (when we come back). Decided to leave a day early (Sunday lunch) and go like halfway to Junee to make the trip back home on Monday less tiring. We left at 5:30am and didn't get here until 7:30pm because of the detours away from Forbes!

[stevco123]

Here we go again. Looks like it's lining up ti be a miss AGAIN for sunday now. Still too early but signs are there

[Australis(Shell3155)]

'Tis raining again here, need a few hours of clear, those yellow Daisy's just have to go..

[hillybilly]

Rainy morning up here. Not a lot - 5mm - but damp. Might squeeze out a few more before it clears later. Beaut spring day tomorrow.

After that just looks cool, windy and showery. Sunday's system still packs a decent rain band, though starting to look a little less impressive for areas west of (about) Melbourne.

[JasmineStorm]

Another 5mm overnight....Robyn just keeps chipping away up here. That's 48mm now up here, widespread 40 to 80mm across the ranges since Wed night, some spots around 100mm now. She also dropped 100mm + on some spots in NW Tassie in the last 24 hours...just carnage in SA.

Now for batman, I'm seeing a similar rainfall projections across EC,GFS,Access with a big bullseye on the NE ranges....especially for access but my old mate CMC who won the last round of Australia's next top model for north of the divide, is also giving some more intense totals near Melbourne for tomorrow night..... Might just share this image. Tonights models will be interesting.