Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[stratospear]

The 'many' doesn't include contributors to this fine forum. I was referring more to those on holidays at the beach who forget that summers can be wet...

[Supercellimpact]

GFS is smoking crack with the 06z run, expecting to fall back to around 75mm tommorrow morning.

[Anthony Violi]

I agree SCI...i cant work out why all those totals are under 350mm..

[cutofflow]

The progged system early next week looking eerily similer to the Nov 25-28th system that retrograded east west in E - NE winds forming juicy showers dumping an inch at a time over the north central region. Going to be one of those accumulation of rain leading to some handy totals.

Interestingly GFS did the same 06z run a few days out from that system, progging near identical flooding rain as this run tonight over most of the state only to slightly pull back, im sure if you scroll through that thread and pull up a BSCH map it'll support what im saying.

Cant wait to see the position of the trough that taps that NW cyclone/low at the end of the week, its not a case of if but where

[Blackee]

12z GFS chart

apf18_init-2011010712z_fcst-z_APF_vic.png (54.51 KiB) Viewed 5424 times

[daviescr]

DJ, any clues as to when the change is coming through? I'm trying to decide when to cut the grass!

edit: wrong thread sorry

[Supercellimpact]

Spot on last night I was with GFS, back to 75mm for central Vic.

[Proteous]

29/15, 10 to 15 knot NNW breeze. Might be half a chance for a rumble tonight.

[Petros]

Interesting humid week to come, I'm hoping to accumulate 50mm out of it, and to experience a storm or two out this way.

[solcampbell]

32/15 here in Geelong, Wind NE 11 km/h, 40% humidity slowly climbing. Really hoping for a good show tonight or tomorrow but not all that confident yet...

[droughtbreaker]

25C here. Models showing close to zero instability today and no rain, but you never know with changes in summer that come through at peak heating. Models can often miss it.

Humidity high today. I was in the Central Tablelands area and Blue Mountains the last 4 days and am already sick of the humidity. Looks like another week of it ahead.

[mad*moo73]

Looks to be a decent patch of rain heading over the SA border with more to follow. It's hot & humid - suprised that the models don't think there will be any chance of instability or rain today?????? Time will tell I guess.

[Anthony Violi]

Keep im mind todays event is in the other thread..this thread is for the developing trough beginning tomorrow some time..

Latest Precip for NOGAPS next 6 days...all the models are starting to come on for a very large event.

[Supercellimpact]

The bom forecast doesn't say much solid rain, it just says possible storm, few showers etc. Models are progging 75mm to 100mm in between a week and all BOM says is this crap, they need to tell it how it is. Also weatherzone has put the Dew points up even higher for here with as high as 19 at 3pm with a temp of 26.. Now that's bloody humid. I shall await the 6pm EC . GFS for Wednesday looks fantastic with widespread -5 li's and 1000+ cape.

[Petros]

Interesting humid week to come, I'm hoping to accumulate 50mm out of it, and to experience a storm or two out this way.

A quick look at GFS and Access10 now makes me revise my expections to 35mm accumulated during next - no complaints about that though.

[I_Love_Storms]

BOM can be very pathetic sometimes. Ie. Chance of a shower back early Dec and Ringwood/Croydon area copped around 60mm in an hour or two.

They normally go very conservative and then ramp it up after one severe day. We are in Jan now as well, which with February is historically a big month for severe storms down here.

[Karl Lijnders]

I would be treating this event with heavy caution. Lots of variables that have to come into play first but looks promising.

I think average rain for the state but think heaviest falls will be confined to the NW of the state as will the thunderstorms generally.

BTW the rain sinking further south over the E Coast means that our moisture profiling as we go into an Ely wind is a significant adjustment and will mean the risk of enormous falls but will watch it carefully from here in the NT where true humidity is to be experienced .

Currently 29/27 here!

[Supercellimpact]

What does everyone think about the shower/ storms chances tommorrow??? I don't think there will be much if any.

[I_Love_Storms]

What does everyone think about the shower/ storms chances tommorrow??? I don't think there will be much if any.

Yep, confined to NW and NE. City will not see anything, I don't know what charts the BOM are looking at.

[Petros]

I know I will be wrong but still refuse to totally give up on a storm out here in N Gippsland, the change/trough-line has lightning in it to the W of the Prom, "maybe" it can develop further northwards as the line progesses, its still 30.5C here calm and muggy feel to it (40% RH).