The Australian Weather Forum

Well, judging by the latest stormcast run, this week looks to be huge, especially come Friday through the weekend. Definitely a big chance of Supercells and possible tornadoes. Most areas should see something by Thursday. Rather minimal today, though tomorrow the outbreak should begin to develop..

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.htm ... 2010112918

2382 cape and -7.25 li's now whats im talking about! But not keen on tornado's , because the shear levels are very low. So the storms will be slow moving.

EDIT: for saturday any way

Supercellimpact wrote:http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.htm ... 2010112918

2382 cape and -7.25 li's now whats im talking about! But not keen on tornado's , because the shear levels are very low. So the storms will be slow moving.

EDIT: for saturday any way

I was gonna say, for tornadoes to occur would have been unusual, but now i know why. Thing is, i find slow moving thunderstorms to last quite a while at maximal intensity, but because they move so slow, they tend to only cover 100 km before dying, as opposed to fast-moving cells covering larger area.

Supercellimpact wrote:http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.htm ... 2010112918
But not keen on tornado's , because the shear levels are very low. So the storms will be slow moving.

EDIT: for saturday any way

Just a note, slow moving storms can and do produce tornadoes and also low shear levels in the models wont account for potential locally enhanced environments, convergence and outflow boundaries etc which can change the dynamics for the better or worse depending on which way you look at things . Add to that if the storm bases are low on a given day and they interact with an outflow boundary for instance, the work required for the storm to produce a tornado is less than if it were a high based storm. Case in point was last Friday north of Melbourne where I watched a clearly rotating and slow moving storm ride an outflow boundary and collide with another storm and produce a significant low wall cloud and multiple funnels that may or may not have touched down (behind a hill doh!). The shear on the day was not impressive but a locally enhanced environment produced a potentially tornadic storm. See my pics in the stormchase thread.

Others know more about this than me but that is my take on it.

Brad

The latest Water Vapour Chart (with thanks to the Bureau of Meteorlogy)

I agree Hamlam, especially considering what happened in the U.S this year producing one of the best visual Tornadoes you could ever hope for from a slow moving cell. This is the Tornado Dean (Twister) and the guys got pics and video of, from the videos I saw you could of followed that cell cruising on a BMX bike.

This Tornado is fairly rare even for the U.S but still we can hope right lol
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Yes that was a magic day we were only 1.5km away from it when it dropped, stayed on it for about 25 mins was moving at 8km an hour.

Still to much cloud and rain about for storms today hoping clears up a bit for tomorrow with the trough deepening in W Vic tomorrow and hopefully a bit more clear sky about moisture will not be an issue all weak lol just clear air lol

20-17c light ESE wind

Hamlan wrote:

Supercellimpact wrote:http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.htm ... 2010112918
But not keen on tornado's , because the shear levels are very low. So the storms will be slow moving.

EDIT: for saturday any way

Just a note, slow moving storms can and do produce tornadoes and also low shear levels in the models wont account for potential locally enhanced environments, convergence and outflow boundaries etc which can change the dynamics for the better or worse depending on which way you look at things . Add to that if the storm bases are low on a given day and they interact with an outflow boundary for instance, the work required for the storm to produce a tornado is less than if it were a high based storm. Case in point was last Friday north of Melbourne where I watched a clearly rotating and slow moving storm ride an outflow boundary and collide with another storm and produce a significant low wall cloud and multiple funnels that may or may not have touched down (behind a hill doh!). The shear on the day was not impressive but a locally enhanced environment produced a potentially tornadic storm. See my pics in the stormchase thread.

Others know more about this than me but that is my take on it.

Brad

And as I think John has pointed out before - If there is a chance of supercells, then there is a chance of tornadoes. It's the nature of the beast. That being said, the probability is still obviously pretty low, but I'm sure there will be plenty of us out and about this week keeping an eye out for anything out of the ordinary.

LOL @ BOM's latest forecast. It looks like they don't want to scare everyone so instead of just saying chance of thunderstorms they add 'mainly in the north' for pretty much every day of the week. Problem is there will be at least one occasion where we get a severe storm hit the metropolitan area.

Latest GFS is out and has moved the huge instabilty from Saturday to Friday which now max's out at -6 li and 2000 cape. I'm not complaining that's still great and BOM has chance of thunderstorms, everyday until Monday then it looks as though the trough will lift into nsw, and Vic will be left with a few showers and the odd storm in the far north east. Still looking good for rain totals with 100mm down for here ATM.

AUS_Twisted wrote:I agree Hamlam, especially considering what happened in the U.S this year producing one of the best visual Tornadoes you could ever hope for from a slow moving cell. This is the Tornado Dean (Twister) and the guys got pics and video of, from the videos I saw you could of followed that cell cruising on a BMX bike.

This Tornado is fairly rare even for the U.S but still we can hope right lol
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One of the most photogenic tornadoes you are ever likely to see. Dean is a lucky man to have witnessed it.

Would caution reading into the models so deeply, as you can see they chop and change so furiously.

<start rant>

As for the Melbourne forecast. What a disgrace. And the fact that the reason was broadcast on ABC this morning as being 'the forecast looks bland and so we need to add some things to make sure that it is not a cut and paste approach'. 5yrs of study to do something like that.

Anyway, showers and storms for Melbourne everyday for the next 7 days, particularly Thursday onwards with rain developing overnight and persisting in the morning, tending to a few showers and maybe a storm tomorrow this time.

That is how the forecast should read.

<End rant!>

Just wanted to say hi to Steven King at the BOM..i heard you on the way home. What i learnt was something my 2 year old tells me about weather. 2 minutes 30 sec of my life wasted.

Forget the forecast and the models...another huge event. Ec slowly coming around and will jump on massively next day or so. Will have a close look later but at this stage im thinking that next week we could see a monster rain event.

Well, for us guys north of the divide, isolated locations will already have racked up 50mm before this massive looking (I know it will change) event comes up, so it will most likely pose massive flooding problems... This mornings EC has 71.6mm already for us until next Thurs. Models at the moment are really strange and not much can be taken from any of them really. I personally dont know whats going to happen yet, could only get 10mm, could get 200mm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Would caution reading into the models so deeply, as you can see they chop and change so furiously.

<start rant>

As for the Melbourne forecast. What a disgrace. And the fact that the reason was broadcast on ABC this morning as being 'the forecast looks bland and so we need to add some things to make sure that it is not a cut and paste approach'. 5yrs of study to do something like that.

Anyway, showers and storms for Melbourne everyday for the next 7 days, particularly Thursday onwards with rain developing overnight and persisting in the morning, tending to a few showers and maybe a storm tomorrow this time.

That is how the forecast should read.

<End rant!>

Agree up to a point, the vast majority of the listening audience do not know much more than rain comes out of clouds and are not interested in more than that, plus by the end of the forecast period pur 8 cent a day presenters will more than likely give a half dozen or more versions of the same forecast that they are reading off the screen in front of them.

My rant about ABC disc jockies and other media hacks knowledge of and presentation of weather forecasts especially as the weather can and does very greatly over the Melbourne metro area but is rarely mentioned even if it is in the forecast from BOM.

AUS_Twisted wrote:
I agree Hamlam, especially considering what happened in the U.S this year producing one of the best visual Tornadoes you could ever hope for from a slow moving cell. This is the Tornado Dean (Twister) and the guys got pics and video of, from the videos I saw you could of followed that cell cruising on a BMX bike.

This Tornado is fairly rare even for the U.S but still we can hope right lol
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One of the most photogenic tornadoes you are ever likely to see. Dean is a lucky man to have witnessed it.

Speaking of I received your DVD today Dean (Twister). Will be watching it tonight, looks awesome!

Hope you enjoy it Rivergirl hope you like the extra features and enjoy the footage.

Still to early i think, to look at this up coming low for next week but if it does come off more records will be broken and the state will again experience some flooding on top of the rain that many will get this week

Agree with you on both counts DJ!
Northern slopes and ranges will do very well for most of the week.
Anything that develops south of the ranges is a bonus IMO.

AV, I didn't get to hear what Steve King said, but it's grossly unfair to slander someone without providing evidence of what was said. I'd do exactly the same if someone was slandering you without proof or similar.

Over and out.

Um, what he said was, well, nothing. he rambled about the music Lindy Burns was playing, then said mainly fine for the next 7 days, then rambled some more about only a slight chance of something. No mention of any systems or weather.

As a taxpayer, for a professional to present weather in that fashion was unacceptable. And im going to ring him and tell him. i would uggest the BOM get out the archived Ward Rooney, Ken Dickinson and Ian Russell tapes. At least we could all benefit.

"What i learnt was something my 2 year old tells me about weather. 2 minutes 30 sec of my life wasted."

Is that supposed to be a slander? On what basis? We must be getting precious if we cant have opinions. I made no mention of him in derogatory fashion.

Not sure what to make of conditions from Sunday. All depends on where the low goes which most models have. Also on an interesting note, EC shows once the low has moved on by, to bring southwesterly winds and cooler weather, but US wants troughy conditions to persist.

Until Sunday, showers and thunderstorms and rain areas! With showers/storms they are going to be hit and miss overall, and will still be with the majority of activity on and north of the ranges for Wednesday. Thursday onwards high chances statewide. Enough said.