VIC - Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May 2019

[hillybilly]

Looks like a big event now for northcentral through the northeast. Probably also good for parts of west central. Elsewhere going to be a mixed bag. The system is hardly budging so rain will train, and the upslide slowly weakens today, then builds again tomorrow but further east. Not too confident about Melbourne now. Similar not too good for out west. One of those winners and losers type systems, I fear

Still hopeful of 25mm in the end in FC, but that’s what we should be getting every week this time of year so not the system to make up for the start to the year.

Hopefully everyone gets at least enough to water the gardens and settle the dust,

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Very warm to wake to @4.30
Radar looking great for west melb.
I still request slow steady plz..
I've got down pipes connected to buckets to be emptied...

[JasmineStorm]

Final 12z runs as it kicks off has a very good consensus of 60 to 80mm over the next 36 hours for Kyneton. First wave building nicely to the NW of here now.

[Daniel]

Looks as if the ACCESS-C wants it's totals around 60-80mm in the west of VIC, while Melbourne's totals are a mixed bag, Agree looks as if a decent convergence line will form and trigger storms some SEVERE overnight Wednesday into Thursday Morning. But weather or not Melbourne will see these SEVERE Thunderstorms will be how quick the steering winds are and if they can be long lived. So in the case of "if" there was going to be a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH placed for Melbourne best time frame would be between 10pm-5am Thursday Morning and as late as 7am at this stage from Model Guidance. But I wouldn't get excited. A HIGH will nudge South of the weather system tomorrow and will try move the system to it's east and North East shunting all good falls to the north of the Central Ranges leaving parts of Melbourne and Gippsland in a rain shadow So while some can be excited, others will miss out unfortunately

[StratoBendigo]

Rain is setting in here. Over 5mm already.

Looking good for 30-50mm.

[Horts]

Expecting sweet F.A. out of this one for my area unfortunately.

[Gordon]

10mm here so far - our first double figure fall for 2019 (it's been like living in the Mallee!)

[flyfisher]

Look at that baby split and break down as it comes into Melbourne. Perhaps I should be looking forward to Saturday for our rain. Of course very excited for Northern Vic which so needs this rain.

[JasmineStorm]

Beautiful 8mm in this first wave so far.

Access C 18z has just updated with the trough wiggling further east tomorrow bringing Melbourne metro into the equation as a convergence at 850 hPa develops through central areas. It's showing 100mm+ around here Time will tell of course but this is a very tricky set up, some may get a surprise

[Dane]

Well after the driest first 4 months of the year on record we had some rain mostly between 6am and 8am
in the Ballarat area. 8.4mm's at BOM Ballarat Airport and the same for me in Sebastopol.
Still havent had a daily fall over 10mm's this year yet.
Hopeing for more rain later.
BTW last month I had 15.1mm's and the Airport had 14.4mm's Average is 51mm's.

[Skywalker]

Virtually not a single drop here, as expected.

Lets see if a miracle occurs tomorrow & we actually get something.

[stevco123]

Saturday will surprise many. Tonight and tomorrow will deliver dribs and drabs as I have been forecasting for the past 3 days now for Melbourne.

I will be very surprised if we get anything over 3mm tonight into tomorrow. Rain from the North very rarely delivers. Just have a look at the radar.The BoM is spot on for this one with their models.

But Saturday at this stage is the one to watch. Southern Victoria overall should get 15mm to 50mm, depending on location ofcourse.

Apart from that, northern Victoria should do well the next 4 days give or take.

[JasmineStorm]

Got to 10mm Some sunny breaks now, 16c with a 14c Dew Point. Big vertical temperatures between 850 hPa to 500 hPa now moving into western Vic associated with the upper low. Instability should increase from the NW in the next few hours into this evening as lower level moisture is injected again.

[hillybilly]

Zilch overnight

Today will explode. Just not sure how much will make it over the divide. Given the convective nature ACCESS-C looks credible, though most other models have the convergence a tad further west. With such big falls and strong gradients, 20km could make the difference between 5 and 30mm.

Strikes me as potential for local flash flooding. DPs in the mid teens are just about unheard of the May

[Gordon]

Zilch overnight

Today will explode. Just not sure how much will make it over the divide. Given the convective nature ACCESS-C looks credible, though most other models have the convergence a tad further west. With such big falls and strong gradients, 20km could make the difference between 5 and 30mm.

Strikes me as potential for local flash flooding. DPs in the mid teens are just about unheard of the May

Yes, expected to see some rainfall-rate related warnings from BOM by now, but nothing yet except for wind warnings.

[Sean]

Not liking the sentiment re. Melbourne totals in the posts today ( )

But this side of the bay has been relatively lucky compared to anywhere else, so if this rain hits anywhere else in the state, it will be a satisfying victory after this sh*tty YTD thus far.

[StratoBendigo]

Just got hit with a very convective cloud-bust. Torrential rain for about 2 minutes!

[hillybilly]

Latest batch of models (GFS2/3 and CMC) share the rain around a bit better the next 72 hours. They have lost the hole over central Vic.

Radar looks somewhat hopeful, but frustrating as it looks like it wants to pop, but ingredients are still coming together. Cells over east central are moving more north->south while those further west are moving northwest->southeast so convergence setting up.

[JasmineStorm]

Starting to pop and close in from the north

[stevco123]

Bit more northwest-southeast than i thought. looking okay now. Watch and wait... there will be storms IMO