Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

[Wilko]

Can see what looks like a convergence line going up along the Otways!
Peter

Yep spot on mate
Gonna go bang as radar already coming to life
The next 48hrs could be amazing for storm chasers..about time

[Jake Smethurst]

Going to be a good day for thunderstorms today, particularly over southwest, Central and ranges. I'm currently back at home and those storms that you mention near the otways, they're currently further west of that. Developed right over me and have managed to see several CG's so far. Quite lovely development, pretty much developed out of clear air!

[Skywalker]

Yep, it will certainly go off later, I've made sure of it by riding into work again.

[Macedonian]

I hope we get a bit of rain!
It's still green at my place but if we don't get something soon it's going to dry off quickly.

[Wilko]

On the attached link the last frame shows the development
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[I_Love_Storms]

Widespread STW issued clear air means potential for more severe stuff very good ingredients today for storms

[James]

need some more to form to the north of those current ones...

well yes least clear air here and heating will help

[Rivergirl]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Central, South West, Wimmera and parts of the Mallee, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:32 pm Friday, 13 February 2015.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Ballarat, Maryborough, Melbourne, Warrnambool and Geelong.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 3:35 pm.
If severe thunderstorms develop in the Melbourne Area, a more detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued to people in this area.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDV65643.gif? ... 1502131232

[Jake Smethurst]

That first line that developed over us contains a lot of cloud to ground lightning. Was watching it as it went east of us. We only received some brief heavy rain from it as it developed overhead, but have heard reports of a number of fires started from lightning near the Otways.

There is another interesting line of convection just to our west-northwest, and radar showing echoes. Just heard thunder! Going out to look.

[Skywalker]

Too much cloud here for my liking.

[Skywalker]

IDV65752
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA

for DAMAGING WIND, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of the
Western Port Local Warning Area.

Issued at 1:54 pm Friday, 13 February 2015.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:50 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Phillip Island. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to southeast. They are forecast to affect Cowes, Phillip Island and Rhyll by 2:20 pm and Bass Strait and French Island by 2:50 pm.

Damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 2:55 pm.

A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Central, South West, Wimmera and parts of the Mallee, Northern Country and North Central districts.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

[stevco123]

A case of "Will they develop or won't they?"
At this stage, action will be just too far south of the Melbourne area for anything.

HOWEVER... still 5 and a half hours of daylight left

[Macedonian]

Completely cloudy here now

[Andy]

Calm before the storm here! Dead calm and a very mean looking sky out west. Will let you know how we go!

[Wilko]

Amazing sat exploding
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Wilko]

Quite a wild night coming up for sure looking at the convection further west
Could be some damage tonight
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/enhir_sat. ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stevco123]

Perhaps just some rain giving about 10mm over 8 hours for the metro area.

Wait and see...

[Didjman]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 36.36,3000" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Big convergence line from Otways back to Ceduna (SA). Bring it on!

Peter

[Gordon]

Right on the edge of a really large & powerful storm here; all sorts of weird things happening with strange cloud formations, heavy rain bursts, odd splat of marble-sized hail and back-building. Very dynamic & unpredictable.

[Jake Smethurst]

Sounds pretty cool Gordon, and what's been happening here.