Alexia wrote:What a disappointment big noise and lightning and 1mm rain in gauge total 3.5mm so far.
...and that of course is why thunderstorm outbreaks are of no use whatsoever to the majority of us for rainfall, just great as a spectator sport.
One or two spots will have had their monthly rainfall today, the rest of us - zilch!
Hmmm BOM not looking v good, but GFS throwing up something decent for Saturday from the east maybe 10-20mm. EC also onto something although not as big falls for now. Watch this space.
Please give me a storm before I go into hospital (hip replacement). I thought of an awesome location to photograph lightning up here in the hills. It looks out over to the city.
On paper it's a pretty good scenario for the start of summer. Showers around on almost every day for the 10 day period. Even if there are small totals on each day (or with each trough/low) they may add up to something half decent by the end of it. This is probably better for keeping the soil and forests/grass from drying out than big downpours with long hot and dry spells in between like we usually get in summer.
Models starting to hint at a longish much cooler spell after about Friday.
Easterly to SE flow around the low from Friday to Sunday means that west central areas and maybe even further west are in with a shot this time around instead of just Gippsland and the NE.
Tomorrow, if anything, is a risk of staying too far west, at least until late evening, but BOM still mentioning showers being 'more extensive in the east'. I'm scratching my head at that one a bit.
With no focus or obvious trigger yet again, it is still a frustrating sort of scenario. Most places in central areas should see something half decent add up by the start of next week, but it still looks like random areas of precip. which could hit or miss at any given time on any given day.
I do like the look of what GFS is hinting at just beyonf the 10 days though. With the moderately humid air hanging around in easterly flow, when we do eventually get a major cold front/LWT passage there will probably be widespread heavy rain. Fingers crossed.
The sequence does look pretty good to me as well, but we are just on the cusp or edge of the real stuff in my opinion, which is a shame. Nonetheless some areas will do quite well if they're lucky and manage some good showers or thunderstorms during the outlook period. As hillybilly says, the humid, unstable conditions generally last for a while yet with many troughs transgressing through the continent and lows as well.
I think there is relatively good chance of thunderstorms through most parts of the state tomorrow also. Depending on cloud cover, some really big storms could get going, and this time the risk extends to all areas of the state. Wouldn't be surprised to see the potential for large hail, damaging winds (near the trough) and flash flooding. They're more likely in the afternoon as the surface heats up, but some mid-level activity is certainly possible as well from the west early morning onwards then generally becoming more surface-based. As I said the risk is generally anywhere, but a focus area will be near the trough. Hit and miss though still as with storms as usual.
Unfortunately I have work until 3pm tomorrow, but I'll recheck models/observations in the morning to see where we stand.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Things will get very interesting if we get some clear air this arvo
The trough is way back in SA
Adelaide still in northerly
Heard wind shear is very good and possibility of severe storms even mentioned supercell
Sounds too good to be true but very messy Synoptics so anything is possible
EC has around 45mm here for Friday through Sunday, and temps mostly 20C or under for the entire model run. GFS slso showing 25mm plus.
BOM only keen on today at this stage but the way their forecasting works these days they have to be 110% certain before they dare put anything in the forecast.
As I said yesterday there is a pretty good chance of thunderstorms today, anywhere across the state. There is already plenty of lightning back through southeast South Australia, and with the trough not expected in the west until late today, anywhere east of that is at risk. Obviously the trough will be a trigger-point, but if there is clear skies, then surface-development will take off in my opinion anyway. Very good risk of severe thunderstorms today also ... the usual severe phenomena; large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. Shear is quite good, a sharp 90 degree swing in winds according to the forecast soundings, speeds are okay, so supercells can't be ruled out. I will stress though that not everyone will get a storm today, and particularly from areas away from the trough, clear air is likely needed to get convection going. Hopefully the clear air further west of us currently will be adequate. Fingers crossed! I'm at work till 3.30pm, so better not miss anything haha
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
This stuff that we are under up here in Jerilderie (town is marked on the 128kay yarrawonga radar) is hardly hitting the ground it's barely settling the dust.
What's the chances of storms through this area this afternoon? Will this cloud clear off and allow storms to come through?
Last Monday was a treat here with 32mm in about an hour. A repeat would be nice!
Looks ok at this point w big band to north heading down here should intensify this arvo and give us something later if we r lucky!!! Late pick up by BOM this may surprise, watch and wait. Doesn't look like much clear air and max already revised down to 24c....I think we will be lucky to get there! it's about 19c at the moment.
Some interesting temperatures out west really spiking
Must be Clear air coming through and South Australian border area is really firing up
Could get really interesting tonight
but are conditions right through central and melbourne areas into tonight for these storms to continue through? Its already quite late in the day for development and its still overcast here
The trough is still well west, should be instability until it moves through, anything is possible this time of year, including a repeat of those overnight storms a few weeks back.
There is some great activity on the radar around Bordertown & Warracknabeal but will these be affected but will these be affected by the forcefield and be deflected southward!
Just completely bewildering weather atm - impossible to predict it seems, even for BOM, let alone all the models.
Cool (teens), moderate SE wind, full cloud and patchy very light rain until half an hour ago. Now full sun and temperature rocketing up! What could happen in the next 24 hrs? Ask me at 3 pm tomorrow ! (This must have been what it was like weather forecasting in the 1800s.)
funny you know, the predictions of big storms over the last week or so i put a cover over the tomatos just in case we got hail, they would somewhat be deflected/protected...
all the nice sun and with no storms eventuating i thought, bugger it, i will remove it so they can take advantage of the sun to grow...and i thought, i bet now we will get some big storms
well we will see, but if what is crossing the border can still have power to get to central/metro areas, i might be having to put the cover back on the plants again!!
light shower right now, will see if we get some clear air and sunlight before it gets too late
I like that reverse-reverse psychology James! I suggest leaving the tomatoes uncovered until the last possible moment so as not to kill off any storms .
Another thing that may work in our favour for storms is that I see the Melbourne radar is now down. Oh great...
