Victoria: Low pressure system February 14th-16th 2010.

[Twister]

I agree Adon N and west of Bendgio is a Huge part of the state.
The whole NW is pretty dry and has really missed out many should be around the 40-60mm mark many are only around 10-20mm for the month and no rain for at least the next 10 days up here and just Hot from Wednesday.

Hoping the NE can get a huge dumping and flood all the Rivers and can all flow into the Murray that would be great

Looking great for the east but anyone West of Melb will get nothing

BIg Blob of Rai and cloud to my N NE covers much of Sa and NSW ,moving SE so watch the radars and rain totals go up across NSW today and Ne Vic tonight

[norfolk]

up until the other day, it was just as bad here, however all that rain with the storms on Thursday, just brought all the mud out, and what that shows is that with it being so dry, the grass around here ws just dead and there was just soil around, and the rain turned that into mud which coated everything! There is still mud all over many footpaths, driveways etc.

It was awesome to get the rain though!

And yes, this next system will be similar to all the others, rain in the east, drier to the west.

[Jake Smethurst]

Will post more details with the 00z updates, but regarding thunderstorm activity, most of the state should be in with a chance tomorrow. I think most activity or the best activity will be in the western districts near the upper trough. Variables are very good for development once again; Lifted Index is expected to be down to -5 at times across western Victoria, and around -1/-2 for central Victoria; surface moisture is relatively good, and we should have a deepening trough over the northeast region and a large amount of cold-air developing across the western districts during the day associated the upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere across the state tomorrow, in my opinion for flash flooding mostly, but we should watch the cold-air interaction with the warmer, more humid air as I think large hail will be a big threat in that particular area (western Victoria). Anyway, I will have my final thoughts with the 00z update.

Here is tomorrow's thunderstorm chart from the BoM. Personally I think there should be some adjustments to that and I think they will do that tomorrow.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 12:28 pm Saturday, 13 February 2010,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Sunday, 14 February 2010.

Thunderstorms are possible over most of Victoria on Sunday. Most likely areas are over western and central ranges. where severe storms are possible. Flash flooding is the most likely phenomen in the severe area.

[Dane]

Been overcast all day here, but no drizzle at all. Looks like it may break a bit soon. Humid again 24/17 so i hope we score some more rain In the next few days, its still been a dry summer here so far with 103mm's (ave 173mm's) in fact we are still below Last summers rainfall.

[Twister]

Massive and solid Rain band Developing over E SA, W NSW atm it is huge and will dump easy 25-40mm+ across much of the inland up that way which is great news.
This will move into the NE Vic tonight and tomorrow which is great news for them hope you all get 50mm in the NE

Once again here in the NW will miss out by a 100km or so to my E NE N of a good 20mm dumping

Great looking rain band already 10-20mm W NW and Sw parts of NSW al moving SE great falls for up there

Cloud has been thickening all day would swear we are gonna get a nice N NE rain band and 20mm over night but not to be sadly

Sat pic and radar look Great in NSW

[I_Love_Storms]

There is convection looking south from Lilydale, very humid outside, trough nearby as well, outside chance of a drop or two.

[norfolk]

cloud really capped the temperatures today, 5 degrees lower than expected, I overestimated as well as i thought there would have been more sun than there really was, they still going for 26c tomorrow, however if conditions remain the same, surely we wont get much past 24c especially if there is more chance of rain

[droughtbreaker]

Well, tomorrow is looking really interesting now. I'm a little bit concerned at the amount of low cloud we may have here tomorrow, we need plenty of sun around for heating. Moisture is very high still and with the S/SE flow over the bay the air has been near saturated all day and likely again tomorrow morning. With any luck it will all clear out by midday because the thunderstorm chart is certainly indicating some major interest up here. What interests me heaps is where the 'likely' and 'severe likely' areas are orientated on the chart. Looks like where you'd expect most showers to be in any SE flow setup so perhaps the bay will have an influence on where the best development is tomorrow. The obvious factor though is the upper trough moving through which is why western and central areas are in the firing line. On Monday this focus will shift east.

Cloud has thinned out slightly in the last hour but still no sun. A few further brief drizzle showers redeveloped in the afternoon but have eased off now. I expect another big night of drizzly showers (although always hard to tell with drizzle) and tomorrow morning as we are still in S/SE flow for the next 24hrs until it tends more SE on Monday.

Max temp just 17C and occurring right now.

[adon]

Atm here you would swear we were in for a rainy night. Very threatening to the north and wind is only very light. Dunno about tomorrow re the storms as I think there will be too much cloud again.

[Dc449]

May i ask adon? but where is here?

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't think cloud cover will matter too much. We will have a trigger and high instability, looks quite similar to Thursday actually, probably a lower shear though.

Obviously the hotter it is the more energy there will be with the cold air interaction, however there will still be enough heat/energy and certainly a lifting mechanism to cause some very juicy cells.

[Bobman]

May i ask adon? but where is here?

Just on that. Can everyone here who doesn't have their area in their preferences please indicate what suburb (or part of Victoria) you are from for future event reference.

[Twister]

Yeah isnt it crazy Adon even more so up here, THICK High cloud and mid level clouds are now increasing to its very strange.

Swear we get 15-20mm tonight

IF ONLY the weather was coming from the NNE tonight

S NSW and NE Vic going to get alot of rain next 24 hours

Alreay 20-40mm in NE SA W NSW in that rain band its thick heavy moving SE and still developing

SO JEALOUS

HOt Boring dry week ahead up here next week

[Rhino]

Am certainly more interested in this system now than I was this morning. As always storms will be a hit and miss affair and models won't help massively in terms of rainfall but looks as though alot of central areas could be in for something big. Don't know how widespread they will be though, scattered would be good but looks like they will be isolated, but hopefully that changes. Will know more tommorow morning, nth-central forecast goes for scattered showers developing in the morning so cant see alot of heating, but then we might'nt need much heating to get things going either. Anyway will let others more educated to give details of upper temps, soundings and the like. Let the waiting game begin.

Rhino.

[droughtbreaker]

'Likely' generally means they should be scattered. 'Chance' means isolated or not at all.

[Twister]

OMG at the NSW rain event in SW NSW that will move into N NE VIC overnight and tomorrow

30-50mm in last 6 hours about 200Km to my N NE in that massive rain band expect that to be doubled overnight and this is on top of all the rain the last 2 weeks man they are getting loads and i miss out again dam this desert

Great News for so many inland folk once again and NE SA has had over 120mm last 24 hours and still teaming down

Expect nice 30-50mm in Ne Vic tomorrow its looking very impressive

Cold pool of air will also bring nice falls to the SW and mount areas with some heavy showers few storms and the odd rain area and this will move east Everyone is so lucky

W NSW tonight and NE Vic tomorrow Huge event

[adon]

May i ask adon? but where is here?

Birchip southern mallee mate.

[Jake Smethurst]

These were my thoughts just after lunch time today for thunderstorm activity tomorrow (Sunday):

Will post more details with the 00z updates, but regarding thunderstorm activity, most of the state should be in with a chance tomorrow. I think most activity or the best activity will be in the western districts near the upper trough. Variables are very good for development once again; Lifted Index is expected to be down to -5 at times across western Victoria, and around -1/-2 for central Victoria; surface moisture is relatively good, and we should have a deepening trough over the northeast region and a large amount of cold-air developing across the western districts during the day associated with the upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere across the state tomorrow, in my opinion for flash flooding mostly, but we should watch the cold-air interaction with the warmer, more humid air as I think large hail will be a big threat in that particular area (western Victoria). Anyway, I will have my final thoughts with the 00z update.

I think I will stick with what I said. Even the latest BoM Fire Weather Forecast agrees:

Sunday: A surface trough will reside over NSW, with model guidance suggesting an
approaching upper trough will assist in the genesis of an east coast low by
Sunday night somewhere off the NSW coast. The subtropical ridge resides well
south of Victoria, cradling the development of this low. The airmass is
expected to be unstable with afternoon showers and thunderstorms forecast,
particularly in the west and south. This is a change from the forecast
yesterday as the upper trough moves into the area. Locally heavy falls are
possible. Showers may tend to rain over Gippsland later in the day. Moderate to
locally fresh south to southeasterly winds across the State, increasing to
strong near the coast in the south. Fire Danger generally Low to Moderate in
the forests and High in the grasses.

Regarding rainfall, still hard to say 'how much', but generally the best falls over the eastern half of the state IMO, and the Otways, possibly here doing okay as well. Totals generally between 20-50mm IMO for eastern parts of the western district (including the Otways) and central areas, up to 80mm+ for the Gippsland and Northeast. Hard to say when the best rain will be as well, I think most of it will fall Monday, but not ruling out bigger falls in storms tomorrow.

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest EC looks pretty pathetic...thoughts?

[Blackee]

Latest EC looks pretty pathetic...thoughts?

Did the same prior to Thursday.
We know what happened then