The Australian Weather Forum

2mm overnight here, rain building in the east mallee/wimmera so will be a wet afternoon on the ranges, and raining steady here now. Most models sticking with 20-50mm here and still sticking with my 20-30mm prediction for here, but more won't be knocked back. Yeah looks strange on radar Johnno, almost like a convergence of some type, if it was summer it would nearly be a seabreeze convergence.

Rhino.

Some handy rain totals slowly appearing in the Mallee today. I'm also encouraged by the plume of moisture jetting in from South of Java A bit of a 'pineapple express'!

Not bad for "Scattered showers" hey.

Been raining non stop here for a while now.

Has been steady rain here in Malvern East all afternoon, pretty light, but has gotten a little heavier over the last 15 min. A good start to the event. Rain really looks like cranking up over the inland areas over the next couple of days, looks like a good break for the farmers.

Nick

Yeah judging by the WS at home it's getting a bit heavier in the last 30 mins, up to 4.6mm so far at home. Good to see no pesky rain shadow for us, and decent rains across much of the state.

Light but very steady rain in the CBD today, was nice to be out in the rain, not too heavy to get soaked but heavy enough to feel it!

0Z ACCESSR looks very good for inland areas with heavy falls predicted. Looks to be coming together nicely on sat pic with the low/cold air over the SW and the moisture streaming in from NW of Aust. 0Z GFS also has accumulations between 25 and 75mm for inland areas from about Melbourne north. Shaping up as a significant rain event.

Still steady rain here in Malvern East,

Nick

Well this was certainly a surprising system! 14mm at the farm and still lightly raining when I left! Ony 6.5mm in town at my house which is only about 8km SSW of the farm. Anyhow I think the ol natures tap has swung to the on position. How LNG it stays there is anyone's guess!

johnno wrote:Odd how rain keeps developing over the nw suburbs over me even more odd in a northerly flow

Certainly is very odd Johnno, it's doing exactly the opposite of what you'd normally expect, I think we'll need some input from hillybilly at the BOM to explain the atmospheric dynamics causing this.
Been sent home early from work as the rain began setting in in earnest here about 3pm and has steadily got heavier, 6mm so far and lots more to come. Going to be some big totals around, especially when the colder air interacts in a day or two.

Geoff wrote:Going to be some big totals around, especially when the colder air interacts in a day or two.

Yep. Cold pool has really hit SW Western Australia today with a vengeance (checkout satpic!). Some pretty cold maximum temps there today, although this cold pool looks like it will warm a bit as it heads East.

Nick Sykes » Thu May 30, 2013 5:02 pm wrote:

Nick Sykes wrote:0Z ACCESSR looks very good for inland areas with heavy falls predicted. Looks to be coming together nicely on sat pic with the low/cold air over the SW and the moisture streaming in from NW of Aust. 0Z GFS also has accumulations between 25 and 75mm for inland areas from about Melbourne north. Shaping up as a significant rain event.

Still steady rain here in Malvern East,

Nick

00z UKMET is similar

Geoff » Thu May 30, 2013 5:07 pm wrote:

Geoff wrote:

johnno wrote:Odd how rain keeps developing over the nw suburbs over me even more odd in a northerly flow

Certainly is very odd Johnno, it's doing exactly the opposite of what you'd normally expect, I think we'll need some input from hillybilly at the BOM to explain the atmospheric dynamics causing this.
Been sent home early from work as the rain began setting in in earnest here about 3pm and has steadily got heavier, 6mm so far and lots more to come. Going to be some big totals around, especially when the colder air interacts in a day or two.

It may have to do with how much moisture was in the atmosphere today and how the northerlies weren't that strong, the rainshadow was there intially but was close to the southern side of the ranges rather than the northern suburbs of Melbourne so the bounce zone was in the northern suburbs rather than the southern and south eastern suburbs today, thats my guess. DJ may explain it better.

Also may have something to do we were more N to NE the airflow today I have read David said few times we do abit better in these situations than NNW winds.

Looked at the weekend's forecast for Templestowe and was shocked to see massive totals for this weekend... 10 - 20mm Tomorrow and 20 - a whopping 40mm on Saturday. Hopefully it doesn't flood but this place doesn't usually flood during events like this.

!.4 mm to 9am here and 8mm since - so far! Looking forward to more.
Peter

5mm from last night over night, another 7mm today. Loving the rain, good end to a very dry Autumn period. Could turn wet and stormy tomorrow afternoon; flat out rain tomorrow night until lunch Saturday; then easing right off for the start of another dry spell. If we get 25-35mm here in the next 48hrs I'd be happy.

hillybilly wrote: BTW impressive heat out west with temps around 30C in eastern SA, and then about 15C cooler in the west. Nice temperature gradient

And that was combined with high dew point temps too! I just checked the data on the very similar June 1995 event which had temps as high as 32c at Coober Pedy and Marla on June 8. Northern Vic and the ranges saw rain totals over 100mm that same week

We could see similar (although probably not quite as high) totals after this is done...

Morning all. Got a pea soup fog here ATM. So far clear skies above so don't know how long the fog will last but got a feeling we are going to get very wet indeed.

Might be a blessing in disguise that I did not get finished. Freshly sown grain can burst but yesterday's rain wil most likely have germinated them.

I think that fog will lift soon Anthony. Should reveal convective skies and rain pushing in from the west. A very wet spell for the state with widespread 25-50mm falls and scattered accummulations above that over the weekend north of the divide.

Should see 30mm in Melbourne and perhaps more if storms get going today.

Today we already have showers and thunderstorms building over western areas at the moment and this is likely to spread east as the day goes on. In the clear air over Central and Eastern VIC, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop, they could become severe with damaging winds and very heavy rainfall today before they become absorbed into the rainband in SA.

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the state overnight and tomorrow, patchier in the far SW and far SE. Local flash flooding is possible but a low risk at this time. Rain will tend to isolated showers with some sunny breaks in the west later. Rain will persist in the north until Sunday morning with heavy falls clearing out of the state by the end of the weekend.

Not much snowfall with this as it is too warm and humid right now. Could be setting the benchmark for what winter could look like with a -IOD (which means higher amounts of moisture being drawn off the Indian Ocean and being lifted by the aid of low pressure for widespread cloud and rain across Australia) and La Nnia building.

Feels like La Nina out there!

There is scud-type cloud flowing in from the NW now - moving pretty quickly as well. Definitely has an okay feel about it today. 20 as a max is pretty high for this time of year as well so energy should be decent. CAPE of about 200 forecast through GFS for Central and some slight instability 0 to -1. Nothing amazing but may be enough to trigger the odd storm if the timing and set up is right.

Nice upgrade for Central areas in latest GFS. Very widespread 25mm from more isolated falls before.