The Australian Weather Forum

coldest place in the known universe Ballarat hit a wow 15degs today! Cloud is increasing with a few sporadic showers popping up. Slight risk of a flash bang tonight as it still is a 15ish degs? Tomorrow is still looking nutz! Windy, showersm thunderstorms with small hail, snow to low levels. Will be 4 seasons in a day stuff me thinks.

Managed to update all the forecasts tonight: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/mainpage.html

Couple of storms about the northeast at the moment and potentially a couple could develop in the west overnight. Expecting between 1-5mm here by 9am.

A sunny mild 17 deg C here today. Could certainly say the first to start warming the soil for spring plantings.
The cloud band arrived and has brought plenty of virga with the odd drop of H2o reaching the ground.

Willie weather forecast giving Dunolly 5-10 mm tomorrow
a max of 14 deg c, so temps starting to drop
http://www.willyweather.com.au/vic/loddon/dunolly.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
( but really that data is for Bendigo airport..some 60km away)

A forecast of 11 deg c !! for Friday . with 1-5m maybe
when it is 11 deg c at Bendigo it snows in the Vic alps somewhere.

If El nino conditions continue/escalate, we are more likely to have higher temperatures and dry air ,from any wind flows from a dry hot inland Australia l assume?
Those Birdsville temps .. An indication El nino is progressing?

Today winds were dry and washing dried quickly.

Here is the sat pic' showing the central pressure of the low at 966-970 hpascal
and the pressure around the s/west VIC has dropped to 998hPascal
That is a decent engine and should work to draw cold air up from Antarctic toward the mainland
Unfortunately the low was forecast to peak in strength tonight and will weaken as it traverses east. It remains strong enough to bring strong winds to SA coastline tomorrow and friday for coastline.VIC
From the looks of the sat pic . The coldest air is still way over in the west. and still a few days away? Arriving in VIC apparently ,on Friday
9 deg c at Albany airport tonight as that cold air swings over the far s/west corner of WA

An active day coming up, should peak perfectly this afternoon and with this warmth we should see thunderstorms around.

Still looking good, will depend how sw we go with the two follow up cold fronts but still expect 20mm plus here by the end of the weekend, much higher to 50mm over the ranges and alps.

Spring still struggling, the pattern is trying to get going but cold air still drying out the country.

Yeah I agree with Anthony, should be a good outbreak of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Local hail as well and some damaging winds.

Good rain likely over the NE and SW today as well, upwards of 20mm. So should keep the rivers flowing and even some good falls gathering in the Wimmera and Southern Mallee as well.

Central areas should see showers and storms from around 1pm onwards and clear this evening. Local falls of 10mm but going to have to be lucky.

Come tomorrow the cold air should move through and we should be back to much more typical late winter weather.

Lots of fronts to come beyond this.

Already at 17 and could go higher. The warmer the better today. Sky looking increasingly unstable in the middle layers.

I think we have got a good afternoon of squally storms on the way which will catch a lot by suprise!

People losing interest after being too spoiled with previous weather events it seems

Yes it's looking quite unstable out there for the majority of the state. Likely to see thunderstorms develop this afternoon through west and central parts.

I've done a quick update of AWF forecasts.

Also just had a fairly heavy sharp downpour, very convective! Popped out of nowhere.

Any chance of low level snow this weekend?

Had hail as well mixed into that shower before.

VRSTORM I would think at this stage the snow level should get down to about 700 metres overnight tonight from the west and during tomorrow, but will rise again later tomorrow to about 1000m.

Karl Lijnders » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:29 am wrote:

Karl Lijnders wrote:People losing interest after being too spoiled with previous weather events it seems

Nah-uh, not me! Just reading along quietly Temp's dropped a degree here in the last hour, our sunny morning has gone replaced by a blanket of grey. Looking forward to what the afternoon brings, might place bets with Moo that it will arrive on our doorstep at around.... ooooh? 3-3.30pm?

From a beautifully warm sunny morning here in Seaford, it is now grey with a couple of degrees temperature drop.

Almost feels like late Spring (with the exception that its a fair bit cooler now....).

Has that stormy feel about it....

How are we looking for a bit of action in Melbourne Metro (south eastern suburbs)...?

Duckman
Storms should head our way this arvo
Watch the radar as i think it may tend to rain
Exciting arvo coming up

Can't wait until later this afternoon! Storms popping up all over the radar with heaps of rain!

I declare the start of STORM SEASON!

@ Lily - Such a stalker - I love it!

I think the showers and storms will begin right on cue - 330pm! LOL! Sorry

Severe weather out for damaging winds. 110kmh at Gellibrand before!! Hang on to your hats!!! Could get wild for peak hour.

I SO knew that

Afternoon strangers. Long time no ....type/read.

Temps in Bayswater really backing off now, winds still quite nice though, and no sun at all. Not sure on the likelihood of "storms" but looking forward to a nice rain event at the very least, and expecting the drive home to be treacherous as always. Have things cooled off too fast for any real action?

Parked under some swaying Gums @ kinder pick up @ 12.30,
but thought it might hold out till school pick up,
Thinking about some Mowing, and more thinking..

Big thunderclap and lightening right overhead - now I have to head out into it!

Severe Weather Warning
IDV28000

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the South West, North Central, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts

Issued at 1:42 pm EST on Thursday 23 August 2012.

Weather Situation

Vigorous north to northwesterly flow associated with a low pressure system west of Tasmania.

Damaging winds averaging 50-60 km/h with peak gusts up to 100 -110 km/h associated with shower or thunderstorm activity are forecast for the Central forecast district and parts of the South West, North Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts.

A line of showers and thunderstorms over eastern parts of the southwest forecast district is forecast to move east over the next few hours affecting the Central, North Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts.

1:33 pm Wind gust to 102km/h (55 knots) at Mount Gellibrand.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Thursday.

http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;