Vic - Potential showers/storms - 21st Dec to Boxing Day 2011

[Dc449]

Would it be sad if their were storms around on my 18th (xmas Eve) and i am watching storms instead of doing anything?

[mick]

Huge mass of bubbles over the western edge of the dandenongs and beyond, roaring easterly down here.

[Lily]

Would it be sad if their were storms around on my 18th (xmas Eve) and i am watching storms instead of doing anything?

Perfectly normal, nothing sad about it.



Well, maybe just a little lol

[Dane]

Starting to look a bit weaker this next event I feel. I think most of the activity will be confined to the ranges and in the East of the state where there will be probably some isolated heavy storm totals.
Would not be surprised if we got little if anything in my area, we have only had 7mm's here in the last 10 days and I am currently on a YTD of 995mm's, starting to get a bit worried that I might just fall short of the 1000mm's.

[nafets]

GFS calming down the totals in the latest run, 18z looked crazy!

[TheFishmanAU]

I want a hot and stormy Xmas. I have been a good boy and want Santa to bring me one really big one.

[crikey]

The forecast rain from BOM indicates very little for the west ( 0 to 5mm) and best totals in the east of state ( 15 to 25mm)
The trough is only around 1008 hpascals on Sunday

However there could be a few surprises that could produce some higher totals

A small fast moving low across all of VIC , commencing in the west of the state xmas morning 4.00am and over Melbourne by 10.00am and gippsland and east of the state by 4pm
Basically a low developing and dissolving over Vic in one day. That should give all of vic At least 20mm
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Also some moisture infeed from TS/TC in the Tasman should give some boost to moisture infeed and warmer air mass from the north pushing down over the border and into the southern quadrant of Vic
and
arriving and converging from the south, a cool moist flow from southern ocean feeding into the tiny low over Vic.
The convergence of those two air masses should produce some good fireworks, like a cold front type setup with a curve( low)
So if under fast moving thunderstorms another 30mm

Think l like rain for all of the state 20mm across the board and extra 30mm for those in line of storms .
Actually l would have thought more ?
Storms for everyone..Any way that my thoughts.

WE are camping out in a 2 man tent over this period.LOL. Melbourne.. LOL

Have a merry christmas all..
I will try to eat christmas dinner with family in Langwarrin,, without sneaking off to check radar.. LOL

I must remember to tell my sister who is hosting ,to have the smorgasbord inside.
30 people inside could be interesting. Storms and all.

[nafets]

Has anyone seen the storms up in the north-east?? Check them out! http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... yarrawonga" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[BERVY]

Yeah it just popped out of nowhere. Been bubbling away to my NW for about an hour or so. Not a bad light show. I can hear rumbling now and the breeze is picking up. Looks like it going to hit me here dead on (Wodonga). What is a worry is it's slow movement. Could bring flash flooding

[BERVY]

Has a black core on radar now.

[I_Love_Storms]

Only one gfs run. Trend still good. I'm hopeful of severe storms in central on 25th and 26th. I think it is probable there will be flash flooding on Xmas day.

[aussiestormfreak]

Showers and thunderstorms popping up in the Upper Murray region (Albury/Wodonga/Tallangatta/Corryong) of Northeast Victoria atm, wish I was up there right now

[Meso]

On the calder just outside melb. Nice line of towers to east. A little bit messy, but they're trying.

[Lily]

Over the back of the Dandenongs is looking the goods towards Warburton way (?), wouldn't be surprised to see something crop up there soon

[johnno]

Latest 00z GFS generally holding with storms in and around Melbourne on Christmas eve and Christmas Day.. Usually a couple of days out GFS does well in these convective situations so I think it may be time to start taking it seriously

[I_Love_Storms]

Good call johnno. The bom are onto it as well withchance of storms for next three days. There are going to be some very heavy isolated falls in some areas I suspect on Saturday in particular as the system seems relatively slow moving at this stage. Sunday will be morewidespread with the probability of widespread flooding increasing as instability becomes higher. Think it's gonna be a fun Xmas day!

[mick]

Same bubbles as yesterday, same place, tops getting ripped apart tho.

[johnno]

And what do you know ILS and others... EC has woken up and has some half decent totals around Christmas Day and into Christmas Night/Early Boxing day morning... Was ridicolous at the 1.5mm and 2.5mm it was throwing around the past few runs.. Regardless what EC does this time round whether it stays on board or fades away again there be good storms around

[Alexia]

Thunderstorms all around this afternoon just 1mm rain for us.

[HarleyB]

Meh, looking like a terrible system for us unless we can get under some storms. At the moment it is looking like our driest month in 31 months here. Only 10mm so far for us, and still yet to reach the 700mm annual total