The Australian Weather Forum

8mm overnight brings me to 50mm for the event. OCF going for 51mm here today so interesting and expecting the radar to look solid by lunchtime. Does'nt look like much sun today so that will help regarding humidity, but damn sticky alright.

Rhino.

Thanks for the Explanation Ned and Calamity.
Mum and Dad took some pics somewhere around Nangilock of the shrimp and crays along the edge.

Not soo happy with this moist wet air. 6am was 91%rh 19.7c
3.0mm to 9am this morning.

9am. ,80rh ,25.2 deg c ,1012 hpa
Date 11.1.11

Report from Wesburn.
55mm in one hour
further 8mm overnight.
Hence the flash flooding in the Yarra Valley.

Going by radar we should have rain but nothing hitting ground as yet.

It feels like Queensland weather atm, with 21c and dp 19. Also raining quite heavy for last 5mins.

well lets hope we DONT get QLD weather

norfolk wrote:well lets hope we DONT get QLD weather

Yeah, well I will next tuesday for a week, so 2 weeks of humidity.. I hope it's not raining next week, and the flight up there should be interesting to see some flooding.

norfolk wrote:well lets hope we DONT get QLD weather

Our rivers and waterways are not set-up to handle the tropical downpours that our northern states can.

If we get anything similar to what QLD has endured, our roads, bridges and other infrastructure will fail.

Yesterday' events in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley has given us a very chilling yet timely reminder of what serious flash flooding can do. Those with loved ones that are camping or live near creeks and rivers etc, please keep them up to date with the latest information (or direct them to the relevant broadcasting agencies (BOM/SES/Media).

AV has advised me that BOM have spoke to 3AW this morning and have stated that Flash Flooding is expected in the Metro area this afternoon.

Nothing to that level of detail in the Warning page as the SWW has been issued for all of the Central district.

You have been warned.

Sniper wrote:
Our rivers and waterways are not set-up to handle the tropical downpours that our northern states can.

If we get anything similar to what QLD has endured, our roads, bridges and other infrastructure will fail.

Exactly, we may not get that kind of intensity, but it is something to be aware of, if not now, later on if the rains continue

Very humid here should get some rain soon.

On a side note very sad whats happening in Queensland at the moment and to make matters worse the BOM have now upgraded the flood level for the lower Brisbane river to major flooding expected Tomorrow up to 3.5 meters (2 meters above normal) possibily higher on Thursday so expect some Brisbane suburbs to possibily be inundated the next few days

We went to Wemen on the Murray River we had been camping near Nangilock The water is black & terrible
the shrimp are thick along the edge trying to breathe Darling River is full & Menindee lakes are looking great
Back in muggy Horsham now

Exactly 40 mm to 9am so far for the event, a bit more since.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the South West, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee
and Central forecast districts.
Issued at 10:45 am EDT on Tuesday 11 January 2011.

Weather Situation
A broad slow moving low pressure trough lies over Victoria. A tropical and
unstable atmosphere will persist over the State for the next few days.

Local heavy rain and thunderstorms may produce flash flooding over parts of the
Northern Country, Mallee, Wimmera North Central, Central and South West
forecast districts during Tuesday and early Wednesday.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
- Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
- Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being
broadcast regularly.

GFS concentrates 150mm over Charlton for the next 24hrs. It's certainly been wet there this morning so a good test of that model's accuracy. By comparison EC is very conservative. Just over 30mm for event so far in Bendigo.

Certainly don't need what GFS latest run is spitting out . Has 100-125mm over the next 24 hrs here and 275-300mm till Sat. Steady rain starting here again and should increase as the day goes on.

Rhino.

22/19 Calm and overcast. No recordable rain here, just a little too far East for this event so far.

EC and GFS have maintained that Wednesday and Friday as being the days when the heaviest rain will fall. Seems that GFS is loading up again!

Am slightly surprised that no Flood Watches have been issued yet.

Nearly 26/20 in the city at 11.14am

GFS has been amazingly consistent in very heavy rain but more omminesly it's actually increasing totals, not looking good. See how it pans out, either GFS will become a hero or a vilan I'd say going by those forecasts.

Charlton already up to 17mm.

Rhino.