The Australian Weather Forum

were building steadily started at 12 and the tally is building 7.6mm with mainly a staedy moderate rain nothing super heavy as yet no end in sight so its all smiles!

Well the rain has really become quite heavy here in Melbourne in the last 10 minutes with the southerly wind at the surface and northwesterlies and then northerlies aloft...

A look at the Tulla trace

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Just wondering Ken...can planes depart in below SAM conditions?

I've been watching it get darker and darker, and finally it's just started raining here in my part of Melbourne, although very light at this stage. I had 4mm overnight. It's pretty still outside too. Can't wait for the heavy stuff to start!

Look at it filling in now on radar, the really widespread and heavy stuff will begin now.

I just drove down thw western fwy from Ballarat, and it was solid heavy rian all the way. Very poor driving conditions with LOTS of aquaplaning, even with good tyres.
And what is it with people driving in these conditions without lights on???
If you're out and about today take care.
18mm at home so far!

20mm and getting heavier.

5.5mm here in the last hour on top of the 2mm last night. 7.5mm for the event. Can't recall rain being this thick ever here in N/NW winds

lightnin wrote:Just looking at the radar loop, interesting stuff north west of Renmark, rain coming up from south and down from north in the one spot!

Yeah, two rain echos colliding into each other one from the N and the other up from the S. Have never seen that before....

[edit] - baro has woken up and slipped back 2 to 1006 hPa, still calm and only the odd spit from light high level cloud inching down from the N. To even get a spit under this light high cloud shows how humid it is (currently 69% RH and 23 C).

AWF Update @ 2pm

Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms continuing across many parts of W and C VIC in association with a strong trough and cold front. This activity is now becoming severe over parts of C ranges presenty with flash flooding.

The activity is becoming increasingly convective and this will see rainfall rates at times trend towards 100mm/hr in thunderstorms over the coming 12hr period and concentrate over Melbourne and the NE ranges.

Concerns for flooding will begin from about 5-6pm and increase onwards overnight wqith the hot spots being around Melbourne, C ranges and W ranges and developing later over the NE ranges.

Melbourne:

Saturday: Showers and the chance of thunderstorms tending to rain throughout over the coming with locally heavy falls becoming more widespread later. N winds becoming light and varaible. Rainfall rates of 10mm/hr likely to develop over the coming few hours.

Sunday: Heavy rain periods easing to showers later. The chance of a morning thunderstorm. Local flooding easing later. Strong and gusty SW winds reaching gale force through the morning. 17C

Monday: Showers, increasing later. Chance of late thunder and hail. Becoming colder. 19C

Tuesday: Showers, more extensive over the eastern suburbs. Local hail and thunder. 15C

Wednesday: Showers, more extensive over the eastern suburbs. Local hail and thunde'r. 15C

Next Update at 4pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic ---------------------------> For the latest official warnings.

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Keep an eye on the rain coming into Bendigo-Echuca with severe rainfall rates as diurnal heating above will aid in higher rainfall. This will move down into Melbourne over the coming 2hrs. Rainfall of 10-15mm in the last hour over Laverton may just be the entree with local hourly falls in mature thunderstorms which will train over regions, reaching 30mm an hour.

Um well the rain has not stopped!! LOL I am scared my house will float away with all the water sitting around the back yard!

So far 18mm and still falling, muggy etc

well here at the farm near dunkeld we may have had our rain for now until the wrap around begins. Funny watching the radar the bulk of the rain coming down from the NNW and on the SA/VIC border the stuff is coming up from the S!

Petros wrote:

lightnin wrote:Just looking at the radar loop, interesting stuff north west of Renmark, rain coming up from south and down from north in the one spot!

Yeah, two rain echos colliding into each other one from the N and the other up from the S. Have never seen that before....

[edit] - baro has woken up and slipped back 2 to 1006 hPa, still calm and only the odd spit from light high level cloud inching down from the N. To even get a spit under this light high cloud shows how humid it is (currently 69% RH and 23 C).

One is rain from the barocline and the other from the surface feature.

Such a large region of poleward flowing air - only one way for it to go (up)

Plenty of rain here, we are smack in the middle of this band, 30mm since this morning with 24mm since 11am . roads, gutters and drains starting to flood this is looking a bit like a repeat of earlier flooding rains.

Steady, moderate rain has set in here, with the occasional heavier drop already. I can't see this letting up for ages. It's still dead calm and extremely humid now. The temp has dropped back to 19c but it sure as hell doesn't feel like it as the DP's and humidity keep rising, it's going to be a very uncomfortable arvo. The gutters are running but no flooding here yet. Stay safe on the road!!!!!!

10mm since noon.

Re "Just wondering Ken...can planes depart in below SAM conditions?"

Melbourne airport has a CAT3 ILS system, so aircraft can land in any visibility.
Peter

Yeah same here looks like the band of rain is to our east and now we wait for the wrap around tonight and tomorrow morning.

Its starting to develop nicely in E SA with lots of heavy showers developing moving N NE and also a few left over showers still moving down from the N in the upper flow this should all increase tonight and hopefully drop some more good falls

19mm from rain band so good drop

Places to my E SE looking at 30mm for rain band so great fall

Central, NC, N Country and surrounds, wow at the next 12 hours, you are about to have all the rain to my east will spill down your way and thicken over coming 12 hours expect a few 80mm falls about the place and maybe a few higher ones again in north facing slopes get ready for huge falls and flooding

Radar continues to build and thicken and it will do so all avro and into the night lots of heavy rain to come radar looks unreal

Note the cloud band in W Vic start to build back to the West as the low starts to wind up West of Renmark

Keep the reports coming

I'm keeping an eye on the next major rainband that's currently between Mildura and Swan Hill. Looks fearsome on satellite:
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That could be a ripper later today when it hits...

And watch all that rain east of Mildura, will filter SSE and develop further later and bang, big falls.

edit : Twister took the words out of my fingers. Me and my slow, stumpy typing fingers.

Rhino.

Didjman wrote:Re "Just wondering Ken...can planes depart in below SAM conditions?"

Melbourne airport has a CAT3 ILS system, so aircraft can land in any visibility.
Peter

Knew they had the CAT3 ILS however not all aircraft are fitted with it - was just wondering whether poor conditions affected takeoffs.