Victoria: Cold Outbreak/Low Pressure. January 17-20 2010

[Anthony Violi]

You're missing the point. On one hand you say that EC is the ducks guts, then once it drops off you all dropped off with it. You can't have it both ways. then you bag it this morning because you followed it. You either go for the system or not at all. Plenty of negativity towards this system from everyone...but like I posted on Friday, I won't waver from my beliefs until the system is dead. And I get just as much wrong as anyone else so no it's not a competition, if you feel that way your barking up the wrong tree. The facts are that this system came off, and I didn't waver once int beliefs despite what trillions of dollars worth of the worlds best computer models were telling me.

[Anthony Violi]

Copping a caning here in Hallam!!! could go for a while too, backed back to the South as far as I can see.

[Petros]

And the system is far from over in terms of the full extent of the developing low.

Its been a long journey between when the models initially detected this possibility (most saw it coming), and the enevitable permutations along the buildup.

This one came off in the end just as GFS predicted at the start. This we all know doesent happen all the time, but it always enjoyable for us all to track/discuss along the way.

Now you Guru's please focus:::: - exactly whats going to happen right here from now into the next 24 hrs???? Will I get some southerly showers enough to make my 7mm tally look a bit more respectable???

[johnno]

Thats dateable it has come off for 50% of Melbourne and parts of Gippsland. If your looking for an argument mate your barking up the wrong tree. If you look carefully out our forecasts I had scattered showers more frequent in the Eastern suburbs tell me hows that writing a system off? Thats exactly how its gone I was the 1st one in the forecasts to forecast hail for Melbourne for this system before others did hows that going off? Mate just have a proper look before you tell us your right and everyone else is wrong.
Your missing the point its rained and has rained good out your way YES never said it hasn't its a great Cold system for Summer haven't seen this since Christmas 2006 fantastic well done for getting that right but those who thought it would be a dud for their own areas are exactly on the money too mate no point in shooting them down in flames cos they thought it would be thats topography for you thats how it works not our fault topgraphy works that way we just call it as it is. We can debate this until were blue in the face mate but rather not in here.

[Skywalker]

Thats dateable it has come off for 50% of Melbourne and parts of Gippsland. If your looking for an argument mate your barking up the wrong tree.
Your missing the point its rained and has rained good out your way YES never said it hasn't its a great Cold system for Summer haven't seen this since Christmas 2006 fantastic well done for getting that right but those who thought it would be a dud for their own areas are exactly on the money too mate no point in shooting them down in flames cos they thought it would be thats topography for you thats how it works not our fault topgraphy works that way we just call it as it is. We can debate this until were blue in the face mate but rather not not in here.

Totally agree with both you and Andrew here John. I tipped this to be a dud of an event from a western suburban prospective and I still think I'm right. Rainfall totals 5mm or less is not what I'd call anything to be excited about. A few showers doesn't make it a sucessful event for me. But a few showers are pushing through so lets see what we end up with.

[rikjpool]

A couple of nice showers playing around up here. Small hail in that last one...

P.s. Everyone is entitled to their opinion people, but remember to play nice.

[Blackee]

Cells N of Bairnsdale also lightning active.
Petros, we we need you, Peng & Proteous to go on a recruitment drive for new forum members around that East Gippsland area.
Bit of a black hole down there when it comes to obs.

[Petros]

We are in a fairly large clear slot now, the pesimist in me could say its all over, the optimist says the low will tighten and produce onshore rain over the Gippsland coast and foothills.

What do you all reckon?

[Blackee]

No more blue skies in town now.
Experiencing a gusty, moderate shower.

[droughtbreaker]

Just got a decent shower now, heavy for a bit and then the lighter stuff lasted some time, not over in a flash like the other showers we've had. Ground is actually properly wet now. 11.6C after the shower.

[Jake Smethurst]

No further showers here since my earlier post. Nice and partly cloudy outside, the temperature hugging around 16 atm, just a bit cool for my liking.

[Blackee]

Another short, sharp, gusty shower in CBD.

Also, a couple of strikes around Mt Baw Baw & the Thomson.

[SC.]

Sitting on 32mm for the system. Good to hear Sniper and Rog heard the same rumble just after 4 this morning and Anthony actually saw the flash.

[daviescr]

Back in the office for the arvo in Mulgrave. For once, my window is facing the right way - directly south. Been very distracting watching very turbulent skies today. just snapped this at 4pm Doesn't look much on the radar, but bubbled up from nowhere in less than 10 minutes.

Not much in the way of rain since lunchtime

http://www.flickr.com/photos/46651830@N03/4284197232/

[dagget]

Going to be very interesting to see what is in the gauge when I get home. Only needed about 5mm to fill the tanks, any extra will be grand given I did a big water of the gardens yesterday and used up a bit of water.

[norfolk]

had 3 very quick showers this afternoon, mixed with sun and wind! 20c today was my max!

[AUSSKY]

Clyve has 8.8mm, I've got 6.6mm - dagget, your block should do well from the south too... currently, a 'tropical' 10.9°C up there!

[Dane]

Been dodging the showers here, no rain since 11.30am. Max today was 18c now 17c, winds SSW gusting up to 20knots. 20mm's from the system.

[droughtbreaker]

12C here, awaiting the next shower. Sky very dark and exploding in all directions. Almost 8/8 cloud cover

[johnno]

You could get 1 or 2mm out of this one Andrew if it doesn't break on you as it comes over