The Australian Weather Forum

The heavy rain blob around Deni is looking real solid now and is moving SSW so nth country and nth central areas watch out then maybe metro in the early hours. More developing behind and may develop a convergence overnight which will probably line up the same areas, will be some 50mm+ falls by the morning. Fun times ahead, and a headache for some I'd suspect.

Rhino.

That's one monster rain band coming down across the border. Same as last night I'll wake up at 3am and hear heavy rain.

Convective showers/cells also developing North of Melbourne heading into the NW suburbs

Would be most surprised if EC doesnt upgrade again on rainfall in the morning, Thursday/ Friday looks 100mm just on there own, with everything till then probably adding up to 60-100mm in some areas.

Huge rain band developing again, expect it all to fill in in the next 2 hours or so, and im off to bed so wont see it,but hopefully hear it.

GFS 200mm falls almost seem right after what I have seen today, so really not suprising now, but 4 days ago I thought it was possibly a tad over the top and don't mind admitting so.

Rhino.

Have received a report of an 80mm fall out at Wesburn.
Most falling in the hour around 1800hrs
I will seek confirmation, but may not obtain same until morning.

Sniper wrote:Have received a report of an 80mm fall out at Wesburn.
Most falling in the hour around 1800hrs
I will seek confirmation, but may not obtain same until morning.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IVICWESB2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; says 44mm here but may not be totally up to date yet!

Edit: Upper Yarra says 53mm, good for the upper yarra dam

Big welcome Calamity! We need more input from up along the Murray. The blackwater Calamity refers to is the big volume of de-oxygenated water moving down the Murray system as the result of the previous flood events casuing fish kills and bizarre scenes of crustaceans crawling up on the banks. I tend to think that another flush now shouldn't add to it since the decaying of inundated vegetation which caused the blackwater has more or less happened already. May even benefit by adding fresh oxygenated rainwater to streams.
EDIT: the next band has arrived here with a few rumbles and heavy rain. Up to about 45mm for the event so far here.

Next round coming from Echuca way looks to be moving quite fast. It only dropped 6mm on Deniliquin though. It'll be interesting to see if gets much orthographic lift when it hits the hills around here.

so where do you think the major concern for flooding here in Victoria will be?

Many of the reservoirs in Northern Vic are still at or close to 100%. If Eppalock gets big inflows, the Campaspe River downstream could become troublesome. A lot will depend on how long it will take for recently dried out surface soils to become saturated again and generate runoff. 3 weeks of hot summer sunshine has made quite a difference.

Depends on the intensity of rain this time and flash flooding might be more of an issue. 100mm could fall in a couple of hours in this setup and cause real problems whereas 150mm, say 30mm per day, over a week at the moment should'nt be a huge problem although there will be minor flooding of course in river systems that are already near flood level. Probably does'nt answer the question but in short flash flooding should be more of the issue this week IMO.

Rhino.

Well only 3.05mm for the 10th. Not much at all compared to other parts but a nice drop at that. Every little bit helps in moderation Rather this or nothing than floods or fire.

10mm for the 24 hours to 12am. Nice little drop. Hoping it can continue for the rest of the week. 2011 total sits on 11.4mm currently

Just had a wonderful little thunderstorm move through here. Extremely heavy rainfall!

Also heard a clap of thunder. Haven't seen any lightning yet though.

It appears to be the remnants of the rainband that was moving in from the border. It must have developed into at least one cell.

Cheers, Cam

7mm for the event so far. Temp currently 20.4/18.8, RH 91%, wind SSW(breeze light to calm), Baro 1012.1. Cloud 8/8 AS.
Peter

Very humid again, and getting worse. Must say GFS has been outstanding so far, heaviest falls just through west central as the trough is there, another batch of useful totals clocking up there. And that will continue today, best chance for Eastern side is some clearance again similar to yesterday.

"blackwater woes"
Morning all
yes, the blackwater is an inflow of deoxygenated 'rotting' water flushed from the back billabongs, lakes and creeks that have had water sitting in them since the winter rains. Some of these systems havent seeen water for up to 10 yrs, therefore the Dec 6th event flushed all this blackwater into the murray river.
Usually these events only last a week or so, but we have blackwater for over 3 weeks with still a few to go.
And the crays and yabbies have been climbing out off the water into the vegetation to survive, and many cod have perished.
the river peaked here between Xmas and NY , within cms of the top bank. this rain could make things interesting

Morning all, another 8mm this morning, so now just short of 40mm in the last 24 hours.
All the rain today was runoff, so any more over the next few days will start to impact the local waterways and maybe we'll see more
localised flooding.
Tanks are again full.

just 3.6mm's here overnight MTD 7mm's. Should see some heavy falls later in parts of the state with flash flooding likely with thunderstorms. Currently 21/19 here.