Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[Ken]

I forgot the area forecast for the Vic region in my last post. It's valid until 10pm tonight AEDT:

SLOW MOVING TROUGH NEAR YROI/YKII 23Z, YBRN/YHTR 05Z AND TREST/CAMUS
BY 11Z. RAIN AREAS W OF TREST/FLIKI, EXTENDING THROUGHOUT BY 01Z,
ALSO TENDING HEAVY ABOUT WINDWARD SLOPES FROM 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LAND E OF 145E FROM 00Z. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUD NEAR RAIN, ALSO WINDWARD SLOPES AND EASTERN SEA. SEVERE
ICING IN THE N AND W (REFER SIGMET).

[Ken]

ShaneEEE, would you be able to put the NSW storm chart up? I imagine it's very similar in the south to most of Victoria. Could be some very decent totals if anyone gets under any storms.

As far as I know, only Victoria produce a chart like that. If any other states do it then I am not sure of how to access it.

They're also produced for QLD and NSW but they're only available internally within the Bureau and to those who are subscribers to this product via a login e.g. Rural Fire Service.

[VRB20G45]

Don't forget that the WATL page is different from the forecast explorer page.

Forecast explorer rainfall totals have been edited by forecasters whereas WATL is just OCF output.

And Ken has posted some excellent stuff there - I'd suggest keeping an eye on a lot of the aviation forecasts (ARFOR and TAFS) to see what the BoM are thinking...also the TTF is a handy one to look at too.

[Twister]

18mm here now with another heavy band of rain to move through from the north

Rain band Continuing to expand and build right through west and central VIC going to be very wet on and east of a line Swan hill to Colac

Swan hill already 20mm could see 50mm easy which is unreal and even higher falls SE of there'

Rain starting up again here

Also another Cold late October day only 14c today after 33c yesterday

[Supercellimpact]

Heavy rain now and has been for 30 mins.. Bring it on!

[VRB20G45]

The southerly change is just starting to move through the Melbourne area at the moment which is resulting in dew points falling by a few degrees.

Still promising however given the barocline present over central Victoria - it is still very much a developing system given how much the system is tilting west with height.

[Supercellimpact]

And it's torrietial in parts !!

[Petros]

We've never been spoilt better for forecasts on a weather forum before IMO. Thanks Karl, Ken, et al.

Steady baro at 1008 hPa all morning, patchy light rain stopped around 9:30am totalling 1mm - so not too bad for golf albiet a bit muggy. 22C and 70% humidity here under fully over cast high based cloud. So that it for us Gippslanders...... Proteuos' forecast is now fullfilled.!!!!!

[Didjman]

Satloop shows low spinning up nth of Adelaide. 1006.8, 19.8/16.4C here atm. 3mm here so far, with rainband still to get here.
Peter

[HarleyB]

As AV pointed out before, the empty space in the NCo has filled up pretty quickly the last 45 mins or so. 4mm so far here.

[VRB20G45]

Stratus really starting to roll in across the Melbourne area, Avalon reporting cloud at 500ft, while Moorabbin has scattered cloud at 200ft.

[I_Love_Storms]

Laverton 11mm in last hour and a half. Nothing here yet - don't mind too much know because it will obviously arrive soon

[lightnin]

16 mm here just west of Geelong, just lightened off at this time, but looks like plenty more to come.

Must have come down pretty quickly when it did last this morning, I seem to have had a little more than Sheoaks and Geelong.

Will the Wimmera area get much more today, they don't seem to have copped as much, the far SW looks to have done well early this morning.

Spoke to a few people this morning, funny how they get sceptical that any rain is coming when the day starts like it did here today... i assured them it was going to happen. Luckily it has! When do we think any storms may eventuate?

[Ken]

Don't forget that the WATL page is different from the forecast explorer page.
Forecast explorer rainfall totals have been edited by forecasters whereas WATL is just OCF output.

WATL and OCF are actually separate. WATL basically uses a rainfall ranking system for rainfall amounts forecast by each model and remaps the rainfall onto a common grid. This reduces the issue where there's disagreement among models of where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. Site-based OCF on the other hand basically takes an average of modelled rainfall amounts for point locations (and is also for the 9am to 9am period whereas WATL is valid for 10pm to 10pm AEST).

[jmw2207]

Thick tropical rain for the last 20mins. Yeehaa

[Duckey]

Completely dry, mild and humid here. It's funny watching the races and seeing it bucket down at Flemington while it's actually quite pleasant outside here. Taking the chance to get the washing dry! I have a feeling it's the only chance for the next few day, with the way this system is looking.

Currently 22 degrees, Baro's sitting just over 1000.

Can certainly feel it coming....

[droughtbreaker]

Rain getting heavier here now. Good to hear of reports of torrential stuff to the north as that will really take off as it hits the ranges.

I too have been taken aback by the community feeling with this system that it was going to be a fizzer and the BOM 'wrong again' just because it wasn't bucketing down last night and this morning. Is it just the general lack of knowledge in the weather that dominates our society or were some people just using wishful thinking because they didn't want their activities for the day affected (eg, camping trips, races, etc.)? I am a bit annoyed because it shows a lack of respect for the experts and professionals who know what they are talking about.

Luckily most of the people on this forum help bring some sanity back into the equation.

[VRB20G45]

Don't forget that the WATL page is different from the forecast explorer page.
Forecast explorer rainfall totals have been edited by forecasters whereas WATL is just OCF output.

WATL and OCF are actually separate. WATL basically uses a rainfall ranking system for rainfall amounts forecast by each model and remaps the rainfall onto a common grid. This reduces the issue where there's disagreement among models of where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. Site-based OCF on the other hand basically takes an average of modelled rainfall amounts for point locations (and is also for the 9am to 9am period whereas WATL is valid for 10pm to 10pm AEST).

Ah yep you're right...haven't looked at the WATL page for a while given the Forecast Explorer (GFE) has been edited by forecasters.

[lightnin]

Just looking at the radar loop, interesting stuff north west of Renmark, rain coming up from south and down from north in the one spot!

[rychenroller]

13.3mm, still barrelling down