Vic: Epic low pressure sequence over SE AUS - Sept 28 - Oct 4 2016

[JasmineStorm]

So what is the outlook for today guys? Is the central area clear of strong wind? Or is it still to come?

I reckon around the central ranges it's going to pick up later this afternoon but I don't think you need to sharpen the chainsaw yet. Im watching this 2nd eye with interest as its gaining strength. Models say it's going to lose energy....

[Sean]

Only a shower so far

[Macedonian]

I dont mind the rain but wind can be the nemesis of an old garden. Stay away wind!

[StratoBendigo]

Closing in on our all-time September rainfall record. Currently 139mm and need another 14mm before 9am tomorrow to break 1916 record of 153mm. 1979 also had 151mm.

[JasmineStorm]

Closing in on our all-time September rainfall record. Currently 139mm and need another 14mm before 9am tomorrow to break 1916 record of 153mm. 1979 also had 151mm.

Lovely, just 3mm off the record in Kyneton of 203mm in 1916

[JasmineStorm]

Ummm....Robyn's 2nd core is continuing to grow..... Eye 3km/h, south western flank now sustained wind over 80km/h. High interest in the next models run now....

[Hawker]

There is some good structure to some of these showers and icy looking tops.
Had a bit of hail in the last shower.

[JasmineStorm]

I see SA coast now getter 120 km/h gusts. A lot stations clocking over 100 k's. Some entertaining F0 and F1 twister footage coming out of SA also

[JasmineStorm]

As I thought....latest access R now backing up my theory and observations - 2 cores both at 980 hPa.....and access r now projecting 3 cores by 16:00. no model had this over the last week. anyone from Northern tassie reading this, start loading the ark. Vic Ranges rainfall activity to increase later. The ranges always likes a drink after midnight. As for SA.... Officially getting bent over, they are under a multi pronged attack for the next 24 hours from this cyclonic subpolar gyre

[I_Love_Storms]

Tassie is gonna get smashed. The whole of Vic is going to get smashed by this system Sun to Tues. I am looking at latest GFS gives widespread 50mm on top of what everywhere as already had.

Rinse and repeat by GFS. Latest below:

[stevco123]

And yet the rainshadow is working wonders for Melbourne

[Wilko]

As I thought....latest access R now backing up my theory and observations - 2 cores both at 980 hPa.....and access r now projecting 3 cores by 16:00. no model had this over the last week. anyone from Northern tassie reading this, start loading the ark. Vic Ranges rainfall activity to increase later. The ranges always likes a drink after midnight. As for SA.... Officially getting bent over, they are under a multi pronged attack for the next 24 hours from this cyclonic subpolar gyre

That sounds apocalyptic JamineStorm
Keep the analysis coming
This must be unprecedented!!!
Showers starting to stream in and one or two may make it over the ranges
Baro still falling at 988

[Sean]

Conservatives/climate change deniers/old fuddy duddies out in force with absolute grumpy contempt for anyone that cares about the planet and its future... Two tornadoes to blame for the network automatically shutting down due catastrophic damage. So no, the flow of electrons generated by wind isn't to blame. The fact their Victorian back up wasn't repaired is.

Anyway, no rain still. Few drops, but they don't count. Hoping for something. Surely it will happen.

[Rhino]

Had a grand total of 1mm today, just showery, windy cold yuck weather. Can't believe it's going to be 21C here sunday, will feel like 30C after today. Waiting for sun-mon system now, hoping for the first storm of the season here.

Rhino.

[stevco123]

Conservatives/climate change deniers/old fuddy duddies out in force with absolute grumpy contempt for anyone that cares about the planet and its future... Two tornadoes to blame for the network automatically shutting down due catastrophic damage. So no, the flow of electrons generated by wind isn't to blame. The fact their Victorian back up wasn't repaired is.

Anyway, no rain still. Few drops, but they don't count. Hoping for something. Surely it will happen.

Probably a good idea to keep the climate change/global warming debate out of this whole forum as it has wrecked a lot of solid work on another forum online where debates got heated and attacks became personal.

Everyone is allowed to have their view and this is one topic where (in my view) there is no wrong or right. Our records don't go far enough for any solid evidence and how do we know that all this warming in parts of the globe is not normal?

Let's keep this Forum community a happy place for all as it is the only site I check 200 times a day and rely on for my weather forecasts, and it is very good to see that we all get along nicely and can have constructive weather feedback for each other and poke fun when we are wrong and celebrate when we are right.

Excellent to see a few new members too.

If anyone else is lurking out there (which I'm sure there is), please get on here. You don't have to be an expert. Your observations for comparison will be of much interest to all.

[Wilko]

Well spoken
Back on this event
Reports coming in that Adelaide is a $&@ mess
and worst to come
Workers in CBD have bee advised to leave early before the destructive winds return and flooding now causing havoc
This could be a massive natural disaster unfolding
(No exaggeration)

[Macedonian]

Down to 3.5C up here with heavy sporadic showers that contain something that rattles on my tin roof. Good night for telly and the warm hearth.

[Hawker]

A couple of South Aus links if you want to follow

https://twitter.com/SA_SES
https://twitter.com/hashtag/SAstorms?src=hash

[Geoff]

Folks, please remember this is the Australian WEATHER Forum where we talk about weather, not climate. I know we all have our own views about the subject but this forum is not the place to air them, and any further posts relating to climate will be deleted, thanks.
As for our weather, 7.5mm of rain and no wind worth mentioning means I'm going to have to declare the first part of this system an overhyped non event. I'm obviously well aware of the incredible events in SA, but this thread is for Victoria, we have an Interstate & International section on the Index page for non-Vic weather.
I'm still much more confident the next event will deliver for us.

[hillybilly]

Getting bleak showers here all afternoon. Convective showers with a mix of small hail and rain. Each one drops only about 0.2mm ... But is just enough to make it unpleasant out there upper are quite cold now with snow falling above (about) 1500m.

Main event still back in SA as expected. They have a high tide in a couple of hours which could be a big problem (the May storm tide was a record, and this one will be up there).

Next two days are kinda hit and miss across Vic with the complex of lows spinning off multiple showery rain bands and convection closer to the core of the low. Will be locally heavy falls, while others get dribbles.

Models still showing a vigorous sequence for us from Sunday night