Victoria- Ex TC Olga's remnants - Rain - 3rd to 6th Feb 2010

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Been along time between nice sunrises. Out the front this morning before 6am looking over Ferntree Gully to the south east.

[Lily]

Nice Shell, you're tucked away right in the foothills there, aren't you?

Sticky night had by all here, temp dipped just below 24 at around 3am then started rising again, currently 24.7/57%. EC has around 27mm for us today and into tonight - excitement

[adon]

Still only .5mm here. Hope this gets better 'cos it's not very threatening here.

[firestorm]

overcast and warm this morning so no rain as yet but out to the west theres rain there so its comming very humid this morning and a light Northley breeze atm looking forward for the rest of the day

[Blackee]

Amended forecast

Melbourne Forecast
Issued at 6:19 am EDT on Thursday 4 February 2010
for the period until midnight EDT Wednesday 10 February 2010.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday
Cloudy. Patchy rain developing during the morning, becoming widespread and
heavier this afternoon and evening. The chance of thunderstorms. Winds north to
northeasterly averaging up to 45 km/h becoming northeasterly up to 25 km/h
later in the evening.

City Rain developing. Max 30

[Blackee]

Brown Rot Advice
for the Northern Country, North Central and Northeast forecast districts.
Issued at 5:02 am EDT on Thursday 4 February 2010.

Stone fruit growers in the Northern Country, North Central and Northeast forecast districts are advised that rainfall and accompanying high humidity late Thursday and during Friday may be conducive to an outbreak of brown rot.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT Thursday.

[Rhino]

Models seem to putting heavy rainfall everywhere, aswell as totals varying, but as Andrew has been saying the big totals are still on the model forecasts so something bigs going to happen. Last night BOM had heavy falls in the nth-west, this morning they have a general "heavy falls possible" for the state so anyones in with a chance I'd say so take EC's totals with a grain of salt. For me, 20-25mm should be about right today, after 3mm overnight.

Rhino.

[adon]

Not very impressive up here. Things will have to improve to ge the heavy rain that we were supposed to be getting today

[Karl Lijnders]

Patience required today. Things will evolve over the next 12 hours

[Blackee]

Good activity rushing in over the N/NE border on the Yarrawonga radar.
Patchy band currently passing over the northern end of Lake Eildon at Bonnie Doon.
This should become thundery as it hits the ranges and Black Spur in the next 2 hours.

[rikjpool]

Im getting worried that it seems to have sped up? If thats the case I cant see 20mm falls?

[adon]

Finally starting to get some showers again up here. Very short sharp showers with some heavy patches in them.

[Blackee]

Don't panic Rik! Still a long way to go.
EC has majority of falls this afternoon/evening/overnight.
As DJ mentioned, give it 3-6 hours.

Edit: An example of this is: EC has forecast Kinglake to receive 79mm between 1900 & 0100 tonight. Pie in the sky stuff, but its a comin!

[Blackee]

18z upgrades yet again for falls in excess of 100mm over the next 36 hours.
Reasonable chance of some Flood Watches being placed for the Upper Yarra & Goulburn Rivers.

[Proteous]

27/20 A lovely day with a fresh Easterly breeze. Should stay fine here today, with a little rain overnight.

[Anthony Violi]

It appears like the two systems are almost at a stand off...one coming in from the west stalling as the upper low moves in from the NE...and everything in between is being funnelled down through our region...going to be some very good totals and the upper yarra should definitely see flooding one would think.

[Bobman]

Damn the band to the west going into the sea!

Mildura cooler than Melbourne too. Fairly humid here.

[Blackee]

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee and Central forecast districts.
Issued at 10:16 am EDT on Thursday 4 February 2010.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system is over northern New South Wales and a low pressure trough is approaching from the west. Very humid and unstable conditions exist over most of Victoria.

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Western, Wimmera, and Mallee this afternoon before extending to the Northern Country, North Central and Central forecast districts later in the day and tonight. General falls of 25 to 50mm are likely with some localised falls above 75 mm possible.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Thursday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Karl Lijnders]

Quite unusual to have such strong ENE flow so this weather is not common do I suggest make the most of it

Can see mid level showers to my NE coming in. Look fairly moderate.

[Blackee]

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 10:47 am EDT on Thursday 4 February 2010.

Estimates Today:
Temperature estimates look a little low from Melbourne eastward into Gippsland. Sinking northerly winds over the eastern ranges may allow for enough drying and sun for temperatures to climb into the lower 30s. Elsewhere, the estimates fairly look good with abundant cloud cover and humid conditions over the northern and western parts of the state. If anything, the dewpoints and humidity humidity estimates in these areas are too low, and should be adjusted upward where rain is already occurring.

Widespread wetting rains are anticipated in the west today...20 to 50 mm on the average. Isolated higher amounts possible if thunderstorms develop.

Observational Network Status:
The Bureaus AWS Network appears to be in good working order today without any issues apart from Hogan Island which is missing wind direction.

Two PAWS are currently deployed in support of the ongoing fire activity in East
Gippsland:
- AWS VICJ (26 KM east of Cann River)
- AWS VICD (near Mt. Moramingo)

Weather Situation:
A low pressure system over western New South Wales extends a trough southwards.
A cold front is approaching southwest Victoria. The trough will combine with
the cold front and will enter western Victoria today and will cross the
remainder of the State overnight and during Friday. On Saturday, a high
pressure system will pass to the south of the State before becoming the new
blocking high near New Zealand on Sunday.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Scattered showers developed over far east Gippsland with close to 10mm of rain observed at both PAWS VICJ and VICD. Aside from this little bit of eastern moisture, the focus for rainfall was primarily in the west with rain moving in
from South Australia. Amounts thus far have generally averaged less than 10mm with upwards of 17mm at Stawell. The rain is ongoing so expect more for then next 24 hour period.

Weather Today:
Humid. Areas of rain becoming widespread over western and central districts
during the day. Some heavy falls possible. Isolated thunderstorms. A mild to
warm day with a moderate to fresh north to northeasterly wind tending
southwesterly in the west later.