Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Ian1971]

Agree HillBilly,

Seems to go just east of us. Light rain in the gully again!!!!

[Blackee]

Welcome Ian.
Look forward to your obs from the foot of Mount D!

Good to see the falls now focusing on the catchments!

[Lily]

A big, warm welcome to you Ian! Sorry, fast moving in here tonight, saw your post from a few pages ago and wanted to say gidday Good year, 1971

21C/19DP and 2.2mm from drizzly rain patches.

For those of you who haven't made it over there yet, some very distressing things going on for our friends up north with some confirmed deceased people in Toowoomba due to the massive wall of water that went through there this afternoon http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... ead#unread

[Ausmammal]

Rain has been hopeless so far up here - just 2.1mm (or 4.3mm if you count the weekend) - but still spitting and misty. Hoping to see something line us up, but ATM just managing to pick holes in the bands - is one of those events where you can go from 2mm to 20mm in a few minutes so only a matter of time.

I'm not sure of the exact terms here but is this because we are on the lee side of the mountain and the rain gets either swerved around us or rains on the north side and doesn't have enough steam to make it up to you and over to here or is this just because of the way the system is going at the moment. I notice the rain in alot of occasions seems to go around me here at home. Correct me if I'm way off the mark < still alot to learn.
Rain total gone up to 2.03mm now and still light rain failling.

[Anthony Violi]

Just looking through the models, EC is under cutting rainfall IMO. Most other have big accumulations through Thursday/Friday, as the moisture will be drawn down from the NT, and the DPs will be record breaking. In fact GFS has upped the ante a bit as well and gone for 24 DPs for a much wider area straight down the guts of the country to Tassie

The potential is there for some amazing totals just on these two days alone, CMC has 100 -150mm just for Thur/Fri for most of Vic.

And agree with Wes, fantastic to see it now training heavy rain throught the Yarra catchments again or quite a few hours. I think Melbourne will see further rain overnight getting heavy by the morning..

[mantis]

Sitting up here at a resort just east of Merrijig. Thunder and a few flashes and heavy rain

[Ian1971]

1971 is good Lily...Does that mean your also enjoying the big 40 this year?...Saw your posts also on the Eildon site...LET IT RAIN...but a thought for our brothers and sisters in QLD

[Jake Smethurst]

Well back from Melbourne. Have been there since Thursday. Some splendid discussion in this topic, it took me ages to read!! But a fantastic pick by Anthony. Also great AWF forecasts continuing.

Otherwise, very sticky in Melbourne and warm. Was warm when I got home this afternoon, and yes, humid as well. Rained most of the drive home with 12mm in the guage so far. AWS here also saying about 12mm. Currently 20 degrees outside with a DP of 20 degrees and no wind. Light drizzle.

I will provide the full suite of forecasts tomorrow, including the one for my area and of course my own Victorian thunderstorm charts.

[Ian1971]

And cheers to Sniper too. Thanks for the welcome......

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Welcome Ian, my Neighbor.
Up to a big 2mm
4mm MTD.

[Ian1971]

Cheers Shell, was in Boronia this morn. Much same as here..bloody oppressive. Thanks for the welcome. Its weird that only 4 kays makes a difference?????

[flatcam]

Not sure how much rain has fallen here. Probably around 10mm if I had to guess. It's been raining for quite a few hours here now, but there hasn't been any big downpours.

It appears to be over for us here for a while.

Have been wondering if there's going to be a chance of some lightning tonight? Probably not but still hoping.

22 degrees here with a dewpoint of 20.5. Humidity is still quite high but seems to have lifted a bit. App says it's currently at 91% humidity here.

Really sad to here about Toowoomba as well Hoping it wont get too much worse for them in the next few days

Cheers, Cam

[Anthony Violi]

I wouldnt stress Cam, will continue to develop and go all night, on and off. And storms are still achance right through the night, though embedded.

With this sort of humidity, it cant hold it all during the night, so expect plenty more and will get heavier by morning.

New bands beginning to develop near Echuca, should converge over Melbourne with any luck.

BTW Noojee is in desperate trouble, its stranded on -1mm for the day.

[Dc449]

Welcome to Ian, great to see new people join. been pretty much spitting rain all afternoon here.

[nafets]

BTW Noojee is in desperate trouble, its stranded on -1mm for the day.

Sorry mate, desperate trouble? Lol i bet you i've made a stupid mistake and everyone else knows what you mean!!

Cheers, Stefan.

EDIT: LOL i get it

[flatcam]

I wouldnt stress Cam, will continue to develop and go all night, on and off. And storms are still achance right through the night, though embedded.

With this sort of humidity, it cant hold it all during the night, so expect plenty more and will get heavier by morning.

New bands beginning to develop near Echuca, should converge over Melbourne with any luck.

BTW Noojee is in desperate trouble, its stranded on -1mm for the day.

Thanks Anthony.

Just noticed that area of development near Echuca. If that develops it will go straight over us here (we're between Melbourne Airport and Yan Yean on the radar).

Hoping for a storm to come near us tonight. It's hard to watch all of them roll past to your East as they taunt you with constant rumbling XD

Cheers, Cam

EDIT: Those bands are really developing now! Starting to go red which is great!

[AUSSKY]

18mm in Trentham so far... was foggy (read pea soup) around Woodend as I came through with Trentham having mid level cloud and fractus just coming in...Jane

[Anthony Violi]

BTW Noojee is in desperate trouble, its stranded on -1mm for the day.

Sorry mate, desperate trouble? Lol i bet you i've made a stupid mistake and everyone else knows what you mean!!

Cheers, Stefan.

EDIT: LOL i get it

Lol yeah its had a gauge malfunction...im sure its doing ok and has at least 15mm by now.

[I_Love_Storms]

It's converging already, and very convective.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

reading face book.
flash flooding in the valley one girl has water up to her door step.
Never seen so much rain at one time.