Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[norfolk]

2mm so far this morning (early this morning) and quite humid. 22c so far over here. I don't know if it will get much higher as there is rain the the NW moving down this way.
Well the main part will probably be more to my west though, but once the rain hits I can't see the temps rising any further.
Also it's been quite calm most of the morning, only now has the wind decided to pick up ever so slightly. I wouldnt call it windy, just slightly breezy

[Jake Smethurst]

Woke to the wonderful sound of rainfall this morning! It has just become heavier and heavier since about 9.30 this morning, and we had 4.6mm to 9am. We have had more than that already since 9am. The radar looking fantastic around here with moderate rain areas just east of Warrnambool about to move over us again and from the northwest. Some fantastic falls as well through the southwest of the state in the 24 hours to 9am this morning, a lot around the 15mm mark but some a lot higher. Also some fresh and gusty southerly winds here currently.

Expecting rain areas to continue to form and move southeast from the northwest this morning. Area of moderate rainfall pushing over the ranges near Macedon currently about to affect Ballarat, then later Geelong and western suburbs of Melbourne and Melbourne. The rainfall will just increase through this afternoon and evening and become more widespread and heavier as the low develops more clearly.

Already some weak convective signatures on weather radar as well west of Cowes and a few more likely ahead of the rain band about to move into Melbourne and areas to the southwest. Embedded isolated thunderstorms as well already have affected western Victoria, with that likely this afternoon and evening as the low continues to develop.

ILS it's unlikely a severe thunderstorm warning will be issued, they will just use the severe weather warning, which I expect will be extended to the Western forecast district later today.

Harley34, nothing wrong with what Terry Ryan said. They have way more strict policies than what we do here on the forum and cannot say straight out falls above 75mm in Melbourne unless they are absolutley certain it will happen.

I will update flood warnings when they avail themselves, which is expected early this afternoon.

[Jake Smethurst]

Updated Severe Weather Warning - I still expect to see the warning extended to the Western Forecast district later today.
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Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Alpine Areas, North Central, Northern Country, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts
Issued at 11:06 am EDT on Saturday 30 October 2010.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system and associated trough over Victoria will remain slow moving over the State today and tonight. The low is expected to develop a centre in central Bass Strait early Sunday.

Damaging winds averaging 50 km/h with peak gusts around 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Alpine Areas forecast district. Although localised damaging wind gusts may occur at any time, the time of most concern is overnight tonight and early Sunday morning.

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Northern Country, North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts and parts of the Alpine Areas forecast district.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Saturday.

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
for Victorian waters between Wilsons Promontory and 60nm east of Gabo Island, between SA-VIC Border and Cape Paterson.
Issued at 10:38 am EDT on Saturday 30 October 2010.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough will remain slow moving over central Bass Strait today and a low pressure system is expected to develop over central Bass Strait during Sunday.

Gale warning for Victorian waters between SA-VIC Border and Portland
Winds: Southerly 20/30 knots and increasing up to 30/35 knots early Sunday morning. Combined sea and swell: Increasing up to 5 metres.

Gale warning for Victorian waters between Portland and Port Fairy
Winds: Southerly 20/30 knots reaching 35 knots at times this afternoon. Combined sea and swell: Increasing up to 5 metres.

Gale warning for Victorian waters between Port Fairy and Point Lonsdale
Winds: South to southwesterly increasing to 20/30 knots this afternoon then up to 30/35 knots Sunday morning. Combined sea and swell: Increasing up to 5 metres.

Gale warning for Victorian waters between Lakes Entrance and 60nm east of Gabo Island
Winds: North to northeasterly increasing 20/30 knots then up to 30/35 knots early Sunday morning. Combined sea and swell: Increasing up to 4 metres.

Strong wind warning for Victorian waters between Point Lonsdale and Cape Paterson
Winds: North to northeasterly increasing up to 30 knots Sunday morning, turning westerly late Sunday morning. Combined sea and swell: Increasing up to 3 metres.

Strong wind warning for Victorian waters between Wilsons Promontory and Lakes Entrance
Winds: East to northeasterly and increasing up to 30 knots during this evening. Combined sea and swell: Increasing up to 3 metres.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Saturday.

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts
Issued at 11:12 am EDT on Saturday 30 October 2010.

Sheep Graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and fresh southwesterly winds are expected to spread from western districts today through eastern districts on Sunday. Areas likely to be affected include the Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts. There is a high risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Saturday.

[Karl Lijnders]

AWF 11am Update

Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms are affecting most of W VIC and NE VIC presently and starting to intensify according to radar returns. Rain rates of 5-15mm an hour are being reported over the C and NE ranges at the moment. Away from those areas, scattered showers are occurring with the odd thunderstorm about.

Through the next few hours the rain will continue to increase and become more widespread and heavy over remaining C areas and much of W VIC should see 10-20mm in the coming 3-4hrs.

The NE of the state will see a significant increase of rainfall over the coming few hours, with moderate 3-5mm/hr rain rates becoming 5-10mm/hr rain rates with thunderstorms developing over the far east and northeast.

The southerly wind shift is presently down over Geelong-Sth Channel Island and moving Nward and should reach the city by 1-2pm and the east from 3-4pm. This will quickly become washed out and winds will return calm. However temps will drop about 5C with this but humidity shall remain unchanged with high rainfall about.

Over the next 12hrs, the rainfall will peak over C and NE VIC so keep an eye on http://www.bom.gov.au/vic for the latest official warnings and flood watches and subsequent warnings that will begin to appear over the coming 12hrs.

Melbourne is in for still 50-100mm of rainfall in the coming 30hrs.

Next AWF Update at 1pm.

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[norfolk]

that rain is getting close, I can feel it!!!
And it is getting windier here too

[HarleyB]

Nothing here since 6am. Come on rain.....

[stratospear]

Just overcast and drizzle atm. Swan Hill just copped a quick 9mm so I'm hoping things liven up in an hour or two.

[Timster]

Well it's started here..... steady soaking rain falling straight down! 7mm in the last hour.
Temp at 12.5 and DP close behind at 11.5, very muggy 94%.
I'm driving to Melb after lunch to pick up my wife from the airport at 5pm, right in the thick of it I suspect.
Will take the camera in case.

Tim

[firestorm]

grey and cruddy day out there atm its 15 with winds from the SSW and its sticky out there RH 96% only the 0.8mm during the morning but this looks set to rise rather quickly with rain closing in from the North and West looks like a good day to sit and back some winners on Derby day!

[Harley34]

Looking good for Western Central areas at the moment. A good 10-20 mm in some places there.

Melbourne CBD and inner suburbs should start to feel the brunt of it in the next few hours imo. Anyways i'm off for a bit, be back in a couple.

[Rhino]

11mm here this morning so far so a nice start. Steady rain here after the initial heavy rainfall earlier on. Radar looking very nice and starting to fill in over the nth country, developing nicely.

Rhino.

[norfolk]

And the rain begins.....hoping to get 5-10mm out of this!

[NoRelationToNed]

The first band skipped us but the second has just started delivering. Very wetting thick stuff too. Gutters started running within 5 minutes of the start. Further reports and gauge readings to follow.

[I_Love_Storms]

It's very convective already and it is not even midday!

[Twister]

Melbourne you want to see you flooding rain then look at Mildura radar.
To my N NE E SE a huge band of rain is developing thickening and becoming heavy Swan hill 13mm last 2 hours and should be over 30mm by 6pm all heading SSE over coming 6-8 hours

Steady rain is beginning to fall here after nothing for last hour and radar is looking nice but just to my E Ne is looking very wet next 6 hours and this will only increase as it moves SSE

Rain really coming down now looking unreal bring it on

[stratospear]

So far 6mm in the gauge. I'm watching 'the blob' south of Kerang making a bee-line straight for us.

[Skywalker]

And the rain begins.....hoping to get 5-10mm out of this!

Yep sure has although light at at this stage, had a good look at it approaching as I was walking the dog on the oval. Looking forward to a very wet afternoon/evening!

[firestorm]

and it begins for us down on the surfcoast raining steadily now. maybe its a bad day to be stuck inside with the horse racing 0-1 from the first race

[HarleyB]

Hmm still a hole right where the rain would be coming for here....

[droughtbreaker]

Steady rain has set in here, solid moderate intensity at this stage but that will increase to heavy as the afternoon progresses. A very tropical feel to today, the first day since Autumn that we have had significant tropical moisture coming down.