Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[Macedonian]

I have picked up 2.5mm of drippy drizzle from the mist that has been hanging around today. Every bit helps! There has been an almost complete lack of these misty drizzly days up here this summer, we usually get quite a few, they help keep things green even when it is not raining properly.

Cold too, compared to last night, no bbq on the terrace tonight. currently 13C

[droughtbreaker]

13C here, cloud and a bit of mist, 1.4mm in the gauge. Perhaps the earliest signs of Autumn trying to break through. This week is a return to warm to hot and humid with storms on Thursday and Friday and a decent thundery change possible on Monday. The TC that should develop up in the NW really takes hold of the synoptics after that. GFS and EC are both looking wet for an extended period although GFS I think is going with more of an upper cold pool and westerlies scenario whereas EC has some sort of mid level or upper level trough right at the end of the 9/10 days with very moist air flooding the continent from both the north east and from the cyclone.

The general pattern looks very promising. It is looking increasingly likely that an active and deep monsoon in Australian longitudes coupled with destabilising upper levels and more active westerlies (possibly) as the seasons change into Autumn will lead to a period of wet weather for eastern Australia. EC has the summer 'heat bank' well and truly flushed out as a result of the monsoonal surge. What we find is that we start getting little incursions of cool air from the westerlies as we head through late Feb and March that further erode the heat through the inland, and of course the sun's strength is declining rapidly now that we are only around four weeks from the equinox.

[MurrayRiver1712]

Looking out my window to the right, blue sky, look out to the left, and grey and nasty, thunder rumbles and the wind has picked up, temp has dropped heaps. There sure are some nasty looking clouds over Echuca atm. **UPDATE** Nice breeze now, but no storm or rain, it fizzled.

[tre75]

Although I'm not familiar with EC (anyone have a link?) I have been watching GFS via stormcast and from Thursday onward's lots of potential there especially over eastern vic, as it moves further onwards into the cycle central and western regions of Vic are also looking good, the forecasts of barometic pressure show a nice NE tropical flow with predicted low pressure troughs giving possible triggers for storm & rain development. Hopefully we all get some nicer falls this time round as after Monday (38+C in Geelong, that was brutal and Monday night was just exhausting) .. Get that rain dance on people, because we all need it!

[I_Love_Storms]

Tre, http://yr.no" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is Norwegian/EC ... I normally trust it more than GFS but with some storm systems it can underperform. Not looking quite as good in latest runs but it's going to come down to positioning again. Central has really struggled lately, surely our luck is about to change!

[Jake Smethurst]

Haven't been on for a couple of days, busy getting stuff ready for the move to Melbourne!

Was in Warrnambool on Monday, reached 40 degrees there!! That was 4 degrees above the forecast maximum and a bit of a surprise. Drove home through smoke haze that had drifted from the fires near dunkeld, and pretty much cooked the rest of the night in my room. Change came through overnight and was luckily enough to still be struggling to sleep that I was able to see a thunderstorm that rolled over for about 30 mins. Not really much rain in it though, 2mm in the gauge, and lightning was active, at least 1 flash every 5 seconds (consider that active as of late).

Need rain desperately down here now. There is absolutely no soil moisture left at all and dads indicated milk supply has been hampered. :/ it's been a hot, dry summer down here that's for sure! Fires have come close to our area twice now and I have never seen that happen before.

Will check models etc ... tomorrow and update the forecasts, just after I move down to the big smoke

[Rivergirl]

Good luck with the move Jake. Big change moving to the big smoke

[Australis(Shell3155)]

My Backyard looks like the Western Suburbs..

[Skywalker]

My Backyard looks like the Western Suburbs..

Out here in the western suburbs it is one pathetic desert. Grass is dead, and nothing but rocks, bricks, concrete & dirt remaining. I wouldn't wish this side of Melbourne upon my worst enemy. Some of you guys in the eastern suburbs wouldn't know what hit if you tried life out here. Karl wouldn't get his grand rainfall totals during winter thats for sure!

Please please let there be something in terms of rainfall during the next week.

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS looks awesome. Lots of instability. Doesn't have a heap of rain at this point but this could easily change.

[Nick Sykes]

Tomorrow, Thursday, does look like a potential storm day in Melbourne with a things in our favour.

There looks to be a fair amount of instability with GFS progging LI's around -4 tomorrow afternoon and 500mb winds (steering winds) are out of the NW.

Though as mentioned not a lot of rainfall forecasted by the models, and also could see SE winds dominate in the afternoon again and see all the storms form inland where the NE/SE winds converge (then it is a wating game to see if they can move SE, if the SE winds push further inland storms will form on this convergence).

Will see how it pans out.

Nick

[Wilko]

Lovely day today
Forthe 1st time in a long time I am very optimistic on the weather coming up
The tropical infeed is building up north
checkout http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[I_Love_Storms]

Chance of thunderstorms 5 out of 7 days in forecast! Not heaps forecast for tomrorow (1-3mm for melb according to BOM) but surely we will get at least one soaking in the next week?!

[stratospear]

Lovely day today
Forthe 1st time in a long time I am very optimistic on the weather coming up
The tropical infeed is building up north
checkout http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yep, looks like the monsoon trough is back, and the MJO is entering into the right phase. Just need the in-feed to impact Northern Vic a little more to firm up totals.

[93ben]

What language does the BOM speak in?

Melbourne area
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and possinle thunderstorms from midday. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending east to northeasterly in the morning then tending east to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

This is tomorrow's forecast...

[nafets]

Looks quite good for storms tomorrow as it has been mentioned but models aren't really suggesting much rain :/

[Nick Sykes]

Getting active just over the border in Southern NSW, should pick up in NE Vic as well.

In regards to temperature, it has gotten up to 29.5C in the city today, not a bad effort in a SE flow, with the next week looking warm, the Feb average will be around 29-30, sitting on about 29C atm, though not a record, which is 30.5C, is still well above average. This Feb has had lots of warm to hot days (10 30 plus days so far), with few cool days (only 6 days below average so far) and no scorchers (37.2 the hottest so far).

Melbourne this month http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJD ... test.shtml

Nick

[droughtbreaker]

What's the record for the most 30C+ days in Melbourne? It surely has to be smashed this month and for most of VIctoria for that matter. Also I wouldn't be surprised if it will end up the hottest summer on record as well, especially for anywhere away from the coast and bays. Bizarre blocking patterns are back. Most of our monthly heat records over the last 10 years seem to have come about this way rather than just searing hot air masses alone.

Only around 24C here today. By the looks of things we have stayed in SEs all day along with the western bay areas whereas Melbourne CBD and further east seems to have copped the warmer airmass late this afternoon (from more easterly origin despite surface winds). At lunchtime in Melbourne the breeze was a cool bay breeze but very different at 4pm when it turned warm and humid.

Interesting to see drizzle in the forecast. With very humid air and a SE breeze we could potentially do alright here.

[stratospear]

Latest EC looks very good for next week. A decisive shift from summer to autumn could be about to happen!

[droughtbreaker]

17C and 78% humidity currently according to my weather station although according to surrounding AWS (i.e. Kilmore and Ballarat) the humidity is probably a bit higher than that.

GFS indicating that tomorrow will see much more widespread activity than the days during the previous stormy period. Humidity should be a bit higher and perhaps a more substantial upper trough. Instability values are generally higher than last time and continuing right through the night. If anything, the peak activity tomorrow will be from around 8pm onwards if GFS is to be believed.

BTW, just back to the sustained heat thing. I do consider it to be pretty unusual to have such major heat buildups in south easterly to north easterly airstreams, particularly this late in summer. Melbourne flying up towards 30C today out of nowhere and a lot of last weeks mid 30s heat was accompanied by easterlies and humidity. I'm assuming the middle and upper levels have something to do with this and that the lack of substantial southerly changes is allowing the heat to linger inland.