Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[Australis(Shell3155)]

5.5mm this morning.
Good weather for Snails, and lots of them.

[David]

you can tell that it really going to pour down later with all this humid, that little bit of overnight rain has really made it steamy.

[wolfcat]

3mm in the gauge overnight. Still dry under the car though

Camera, GPS and full tank of petrol are ready for this afternoon.

[Alexia]

Only a light shower about hour ago so far getting darker now. 17c

[daviescr]

Yeah, 2.4mm from a few showers at about 5am this morning.

Hey, Wolfcat - what are you chasing today? Storms? or floods? only I think it may be a bit of a disappointment in terms of convective storms today - any experts please correct me if I'm wrong!

Plus floods will probably not kick in for another 24hrs from now...

Cheers
Chris

[stratospear]

Cloud is really thickening up North-West of here and the air is thick with moisture. Looking ominous but still waiting...

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah, 2.4mm from a few showers at about 5am this morning.

Hey, Wolfcat - what are you chasing today? Storms? or floods? only I think it may be a bit of a disappointment in terms of convective storms today - any experts please correct me if I'm wrong!

Plus floods will probably not kick in for another 24hrs from now...

Cheers
Chris

You are wrong. Haha. We will get hammered this arvo. I expect some very high rain rates at times. Wouldn't be shocked to pick up an inch in an hour or two.

Dewpoints are through the roof. Could be in Brisbane right now. You have to remember as well, cloud etc. are not really storm mitigating factors if you are in the firing line of the inner bands of a surface low. Instability will be relatively high, as shown on GFS, and convective active will be rampant.

It reminds me of March 6 very much. Warm humid air coming in from the NW and a SW change later. Only difference will be the surface temps (which were around 28c on that day whereas today we will likely only get low 20s, so that will make very severe storms with large hail and destructive winds unlikely but still very likely to see localised flash flooding).

[Anthony Violi]

3mm in the gauge overnight. Still dry under the car though

Camera, GPS and full tank of petrol are ready for this afternoon.

Dont think you will see too much clear activity, airmass very humid will inhibit clear air storms unless its way out west or north. then again, if you have a full tank you may get to see a show.

Expect to see some very heavy rain close in within the next few hours, wouldnt be suprised to see a line of storms develop on the Eastern flank of the band that is now to our NW. Humidity is excellent, DPs in the high teens, so its on like Donkey Kong.

[Harley34]

Well Morning all.

Went outside briefly this morning. Rather humid i must say, with evidence of light falls developing and falling over that last couple of hours. BOM's forecast top temperature today is for 22 degrees in Melbourne, which i would like to be beaten. I wouldn't mind seeing the temperature rise, however with this vast expanse of cloud over us and approaching, i doubt we will see anything higher than 23 imo. Although, if we hit clear air, not only should the temperature rise to 25 and the humidity rise, we should see a chance of convective development. In terms of floods, it's not about what falls this afternoon necessarily, it's about what falls overnight. Everyone's been indicating the flooding will happen from a continuous period of 12-18 hours +, which tells me areas such as Melbourne will probably only receive moderate falls with the odd heavy spot (embedded thunderstorm), however a lot of this rain. Some areas if under storms will quite possibly along with the rainfall easily hit the 75mm mark. Still predicting 50-60 mm here from this afternoon until tomorrow morning.

Rain band coming in from NW looks healthy, but this afternoon should be interesting see develop, and just how much rain accumulates.

[Supercellimpact]

Just started to rain lightly here.. The begining of the flash flooding lol

[droughtbreaker]

Yep, watch it explode after midday, and particularly after 4pm. Already 10mm+ falls recorded throughout the west and 10-25mm in the SW.

GFS and EC sticking to 75mm plus for here, the only difference is it is almost all progged for today now with only 7mm for tomorrow morning and a few mm after that. Flash flooding becomes a major concern in this scenario.

[Karl Lijnders]

This weather reminds me so much of the day after the infamous March 6th storm. Still, overcast, Singapore humidity and now wind!! I think we are certainly going to see the radar erupt shortly.

[wolfcat]

Hey, Wolfcat - what are you chasing today? Storms? or floods? only I think it may be a bit of a disappointment in terms of convective storms today - any experts please correct me if I'm wrong!

Plus floods will probably not kick in for another 24hrs from now...

Cheers
Chris

Going for the flash flooding around the city etc, the "news" kind of photos, tomorrow will do "flood" if the spillways on any of the dams run up to a decent over flow

[Rhino]

Been thumping down here since 10am, absolutly caning down. Will be interesting to see what happens when the "heavy rain" arrives this arvo. It's all starting to happen.

Rhino.

[Harley34]

Been thumping down here since 10am, absolutly caning down. Will be interesting to see what happens when the "heavy rain" arrives this arvo. It's all starting to happen.

Rhino.

Good to hear Rhino. I'm wondering how all this rain is just going to appear? Is it the fact that the afternoon heating will in fact supply more energy to produce more rainfall along with the humidity, or is it just simply the timing of the system?

[Karl Lijnders]

Keep us posted on totals there Rhino!!

Southerly winds have made it too Geelong but it is moving slowly northwards so not expecting here til 4pm at the earliest.

Watch the rainfall coming south of Echuca in the coming hour to cut ahead of the rain over Rhino.

Harley read the updates provided.

[stratospear]

Main rainband is just to my West and staying there, so missing out on the action atm...

Looks interesting just West of Swan Hill on radar and Satellite looks great over the border in NSW.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looks like our first storm in C areas in developing at the bottom of the Mornington Peninsula. Expect that to increase over the coming few hours ahead of the rain west of Melbourne-Bendigo!

[Harley34]

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state ... utostart=1

The video on there had Terry Ryan from the BOM explaining 'yesterday' that Melbourne would see "perhaps 5-10 mm between Midday today and 5-6 pm".

Bs if you ask me, i can tell you now, i'm expecting at least 5 times that. I think he was trying to sound optimistic about the situation.

Rain starting to fill up on the 128 km radar.

[Twister]

Loads of rain in the NW Vic and W, SW NSW all streaming south

On and off rain since 4am Heavy around 7am and half an hour ago been steady last hour or so

15mm already so stoked and sure we will double that unreal and just loving this pattern

Also look at SA on both sat pic, radar and water vapor looks like the low is just starting to develop N NW of Adel maybe around Woomera can just see the rotation on Woomera and Adel radar what also gives me this idea is that cloud showers and rain are now rapidly developing in E SA heading due south and on sat pic it is cloud is pulling away from the high cloud over NSW and VIc

Also cloud band is standing up very nicely lots to come watch out North facing slopes and NCe, NCo as we have all been saying this week models and forecast still looking great and radar really starting to pick up for a few spots

16mm now with 14/13c and west winds

rain just easing up atm