Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[mick]

The smoke plume more or less tracked over the city and was clearly visible (almost like sea mist) but was not at ground level, no smell of smoke and the air was clear.

Only 32C here today. It was a classic northerly wind day with a spike of temps over the western half of Melbourne.

Extended GFS wants to smash heat records from the 26th. It has a week of average daily temps at 25C-30C for the south and 30C+ for the north (which basically means around 18C-38C (as an example) in Melbourne for that entire week. If that happens its time to evacuate planet earth. It will make March 2008 feel like Antarctica.

We can only hope that GFS is off in looney land and going stupid (as it often does more than one week out). EC has another extremely long heat wave after a few warm days this week but then flushes all the heat out by the end of the 10 days as cooler Autumnal air makes an appearance. TBH it seems more plausible to me. The predicted cyclone up north has me worried as it will cause a great deal of the interior to dry up until it makes a crossing and/or decays. Black Saturday was partly caused by a severe and large cyclone off the NW Aus coast sucking up the monsoon.

Anyway. for this week, GFS has 25-50mm over the ranges and decent falls for a lot of areas while EC is showing a few rain events as well. Fingers crossed.

Can you give me your opinion of the weather for 1--3 march mate?

[droughtbreaker]

Just saw a water bombing aircraft fly over and off to the west with the bucket hanging down so obviously had just picked up water from a local res. I'm assuming it was off to the small Blackwood fire that is now controlled. Still always an interesting sight to say the least when you don't know exactly where all the fires are.

After what this summer has thrown up already I'm still very uneasy about blocks particularly when I think back to March 2008 but hopefully it all breaks down sooner rather than later. To be honest I prefer a week of 10C and drizzle than what we are seeing atm.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

All Good Tizza Aye.. (QLD lingo) Love to know what you guys were seeing..
Had a look through some yahoo groups no one has mentioned anything.

[Rivergirl]

Fire at Basin Olinda Road then another one popped up on Mountain highway. It's a northerly wind, although hardly blowing atm but blowing in our direction Hilton Road which is about km away from the fires.

Seems to be controlled now thank goodness. It's a real worry up here in the hills as Geoff has been concerned about too.

[dry]

Whole house now smells of smoke since the wind has turned North-north-east - I think it's coming through the evap air conditioner. I hope the grass fire is put out soon, some very nervous people in the outer northern suburbs.

[93ben]

When I was leaving TAFE in Glen Waverley there was a whole lot of smoke! Then when I got home in Templestowe the smoke was still there. Went online and thought, wow that's scary, I never seen a fire get that close to Melbourne before. Though I don't want any more brushfires, I want rain and storms with rain!

[Geoff]

All safe up here now Robyn, was a bit too close to you for comfort though! They called out the power company, so could well have been the same old story of power lines coming down and starting fires (shakes head in despair).
On a happier note, the approaching cloudband (after diminishing all day) seems to be thickening up again tonight as it's approaching, and the radar showing lots of echoes nearly reaching Geelong now and stretching way back into the Bight, so hopefully we may be in for a damp night!

[Andy]

not sure what that is showing up over us but it's not rain. I would have said virga but I can see nothin but stars outside. Some better echos on the way I hope there is a little precip in them.....

[James]

and a lightning strike showing in that cloud on radar, well i sure hope there is rain in it, or its going to be hell with all the fires its going to start!

[Rivergirl]

I certainly hope we get some rain tonight Geoff

Yes we did have a blackout before the sirens went off. I wondered if the fire and blackout were connected, seems like it was a possiblity. Thanks Geoff.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Yes it was Power lines, it was noted on The Basin facebook page.. they got to it pretty quickly..

[tre75]

5:17am crash - loud drops on flat roof, try and get a little more sleep, 7am more drops .. 0.8mm .. so tired, feel like I've run the marathon few days running now, energy sapping heat. Thursday is shaping up to be the day too look out for...

[Dane]

Had about six splashy drops here and that's it if the radar is anything to go by.
A few suburbs had recordable falls with Olinda Creek at Lilydale lake getting 1.6mm's.
That was the only fall above 1mm in the metro area.
The big dry continues.

[I_Love_Storms]

Had about six splashy drops here and that's it if the radar is anything to go by.
A few suburbs had recordable falls with Olinda Creek at Lilydale lake getting 1.6mm's.
That was the only fall above 1mm in the metro area.
The big dry continues.

Yeah doesn't look like anything amazing til the end of the model run where big system is progged by EC and GFS!

Thursday looks good for isolated storms that should deliver if you get under one!

[occluded]

Reports of a raindrop falling somewhere in the mid-Eastern suburbs. A search party has been dispatched.

But seriously, had a few drops here this morning, just enough to wet the manual gauge, not enough to bother the automatic gauge, and not enough for the wife to ask why the washing was still out

About 0.2mm I'd say, which is the total for this event so far.

Temp has cooled down nicely though, 21.3/16.8 with a light Southerly.

[Skywalker]

Caroline Springs was split in two weatherwise this morning, roads were slightly wet at the southern end towards Ballarat Rd, and it was bone dry in the town centre near me (of course). Not a single bloody drop fell on my house.

That fire last night in Epping was a bit of a worry. I'm a Epping boy myself (only lived here 4 years, the rest over there), and that fire was not far from my old place.

Doesn't matter which part of Victoria it is, fire could strike anywhere. WE NEED RAIN!!!

[nafets]

So the weak rain bad has passed, what are the chances of any other rain !?!

[Gordon]

Cool and drizzly up here, 14 C. Can't see us cracking 20 C. Quite a change for the better in the pattern since this thread started and the local areas lucky enough to get decent thunderstorm rain are starting to green up. Only one 30 C day forecast for us in the next week.

[Rhino]

Outlook does look like mild to warm conditions over the coming week and possible rainfall which is a change over the last 4 weeks and good to see and feel . Talking to a farmer who lives 10km's nth of here who got 65mm in the storm here thursday. His dams are full of crap unfortunately and you can see areas where the water has been over the fences and plenty of scouring over the dirt roads and large branches down, glad we did'nt get that in town though.

Rhino.

[I_Love_Storms]

Continuing to like the look of GFS. Consistent and EC also been good last few runs. Looking at EC tonight for further confidence in this system. Looks like a very humid week ahead