Victoria: Cold Outbreak/Low Pressure. January 17-20 2010

[tizza]

I was woken twice throughout the night to thunder, wind and pelting rain but was obviously a lot tamer here than out east. Sounds like you guys got a belting. I feel like I got a lot more rain than the CBD did too. Here it goes again, currently pouring. Down to 9.2c here but back up to 11c now. Oh and here comes our 1st hail shower.

[Karl Lijnders]

More hail and thunder here. 33mm now fallen!!!

[Sharon]

Hi guys, I'm new to the forum, but I'm finding it fascinating (even though I only understand about half of what you say).

I live in Gembrook and we have had some pretty good falls of rain overnight and this morning. Dont have a rain gauge, but Im gonna try and pick one up this week.

Keep up the good work

[johnno]

Few drops here which sums up this system this way nothing registable so far in the rainguage since Saturday.

Welcome Sharon glad your getting it.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, unsurprisingly next to nothing here. 1mm at the most, still can't be stuffed checking the gauge.

6C minimum here.

[Sharon]

Few drops here which sums up this system this way nothing registable so far in the rainguage since Saturday.

Welcome Sharon glad your getting it.

Thanks johnno, me too. Any rain we get cuts down risk of fires, so its all good.

Bucketing down again right now!!

[johnno]

Yep Andrew no suprises there this area once again missing out we missed out the NYD storms and now this & sitting on a pathetic 4mm from the stroke of midnight New Years eve. I expect few drops here today at best was always going to be a wintry Eastern suburbs event.

EC has totally stuffed this up this way hasn't got anything right the past 9 days adjusted so many times until right at the end and still can't get it right.

[Mosaic]

10 deg C at present, steady & at times heavy rain during the night.

Have clocked up an impressive 27mm!

We always cream it with those sw airflows.

[johnno]

Your welcome Sharon hope you get plenty more

[droughtbreaker]

GFS has stuffed up too unless 5mm falls widespread today across western suburbs up to the ranges. To be honest I would have been very happy with 5mm, obviously I wasn't expecting 15-30mm falls like out east but models were firm on about 5mm last night and this morning and again it has failed to deliver, unless there is an increase in showers this afternoon and the wind goes more SSW (EC still has 2mm here after midday) but I'm not really seeing it atm.

I guess it just has to be accepted for this area and the general west central area that SW winds (and particularly WSW) = dry, at any time of year in almost every situation and setup.

A bit worrying because it is just starting to dry out a bit now, even with all that new years rain we got here, there is no rainfall progged for the next 10 days and February is a major fire danger month.

[Luken]

37mm according to the Mitcham guage so far. Was very heavy at times over night. Few rumbles and lots of small hail by the sounds of it. I haven't ventured out to the guage yet, but very impressed with what we have had so far. Pity it isn't more wide spread for Johnoo and Andrew though. Next time guys.

My gauge also says 37mm

[tizza]

BELTING DOWN !!!!!! Can't hear the TV

[tizza]

total white out, the rain is insane and the hail is out of control!!!! It's going banana's here!!! Woo Hoo, this will cause flash flooding for the inner city for sure, it's crazy!

[daviescr]

Whoa! what a cool night of it! woken twice with thunder, and once with a huge bright flash with a deep bass rumble. Heap of heavy squalls too. Resisted temptation to get up and check gauge til brekky.

Max wind speed recorded was 68kmh at 2.28 this morning, and total for system here is now at 26.8mm, total for month at a whopping 41mm

Seems our heating is bust too, spent 30 mins trying to light the pilot is pouring rain this morning. Grumpy pregnant wife now.

In the CBD now, settled into lovely heavy rain for last 25 mins.

Fabulous.

edit: just had flash and boom within a few seconds, and a little hail too!

[AUSSKY]

Pouring in Abbotsford...then it got heavier....then it hailed! Gutters are full - haven't seen that here for a good few years!!!! YAY!!!!!

[Dane]

Had 18mm's to 9am here. Some thunder around 2am but no hail. As DJ mentioned snow on Lake Mountain Cam, also some on Mt Baw Baw and MT Buller Cams.

[Karl Lijnders]

These are some of the best coldies I have seen. The structure is to die for. Nice to see plenty getting similar falls. 34mm to 9am.

Radar doing cells no justice!!!

[johnno]

I did mention few days ago that this would be the best Summer Coldie event since Christmas 2006 perhaps a touch weaker I was told I was being optimistic but so far so good its been exactly that for the Eastern suburbs and little or next to nothing rainfall for the Western suburbs exactly like Xmas 2006 with similar rainfall out East and frequency of hailstorms.

[Blackie]

Is this January or July?? Feels like a Melbourne winter's morning. And the hail which has just fallen and covered everything is greater than anything we received all last winter/spring. So happy to see some lovely totals around the place. Haven'y checked here but suspect 5mm plus in the last half hour with near whiteout at times. Snow falling in the alps too http://ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/vi ... wbaw1.html

[Anthony Violi]

Yep Andrew no suprises there this area once again missing out we missed out the NYD storms and now this & sitting on a pathetic 4mm from the stroke of midnight New Years eve. I expect few drops here today at best was always going to be a wintry Eastern suburbs event.

EC has totally stuffed this up this way hasn't got anything right the past 9 days adjusted so many times until right at the end and still can't get it right.

and johnno I mentioned this from the outset...computer models make errors, just like us. EC has had a very ordinary month. This system has panned out exactly as myself and Karl were forecasting, despite everyone telling us the models had jumped off and wouldn't come back. I never give up on an upper feature, especially when if was 44 degrees. We stuck to our guns and got it spot on. This is where computer models don't have the human element. Logic doesn't exist on models. Maybe more people should remember this when they look at all the models..

Anyhow, 38mm for the event, absolutely stoked!! The joys of the Yarra Valley.. And still caning down at home. Love the structure on these cells, best cold air storms for many years!