Hot and thundery - Tropical moisture feed - Jan 4 to 14 2015

[I_Love_Storms]

We are going to get hammered tomorrow, I got a bit overexcited with the last system but this forecast looks pretty awesome, big low pressure digging in to our west into the humid warm airmass and dumping on us. Agree with Johnno. I think 25-50mm for Central, the Eastern suburbs should get smashed with the wrap around based on current forecast of the low.

Severe Weather Warning
for heavy rainfall
for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts
Issued at 3:30 pm EDT on Monday 12 January 2015.
Weather Situation
A low pressure trough will enter western Victoria on Tuesday morning and move only slowly eastwards into central districts by Tuesday evening as an associated low pressure system deepens and moves over western Bass Strait.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for parts of the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over western districts during the morning and extend into central districts by midday then contracting to the northeast during the afternoon before easing by the evening.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Monday.

[Jake Smethurst]

Going to be a good one this. Severe Weather Warning renewed, flood watches re-issued for the north/northwest. Would watch for thunderstorm development also with heavier falls.

[Tassiedave]

A pleasant 25 degrees in Launceston at the moment. This event has been non existent for Tassie so far with no rain falling since Thursday. Looks good for some moderate falls overnight Tuesday into Thursday.

[Rhino]

All district forecasts, bar gippsland, have heavy falls and possible falls exceeding 50mm possible so you would have to think that something big is in the offering even if it is a BOM forecast . If this flops I reckon the BOM might need extra security on it's doors lol, I know some on here won't be happy . Am happy here, have had a good drink and still looks good for 20mm but might scrape 40mm and should get the 50mm for the last 72 hrs. Everyone just enjoy getting something, it's all good at this time of the year....

Rhino.

[Sean]

Ok, can we all get our BBQs out and make Tue washing day, please.

Also, for those of you engaded, how about a snap wedding in the botanic gardens tomorrow?


Cheers

[Supercellimpact]

If we get the 50mm forecast we will be over 100mm for the week. That's crazy ! Reminiscent of the La Niña

[StratoBendigo]

If we get the 50mm forecast we will be over 100mm for the week. That's crazy ! Reminiscent of the La Niña

Currently on 80mm in the Eastern suburbs of Bendigo. More than 22mm tomorrow will make it our wettest week since Feb 2011. But the 164mm of Jan 10-16, 2011 looks very out-of-reach.

Our lawns look green now. Amazing transformation.

[Wilko]

Cloud exploding over Eastern SA
I wonder where that Huge mass is heading ?
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[droughtbreaker]

Definitely agree about the moist heat. It's way more tolerable (and liveable) than dry heat.
I know that's generally contrary to public opinion but it's way better for the health of vegetation, retention of soil moisture, retention of water storages, prevention of bushfires and also how you feel, its less dehydrating and irritating to your skin etc.

As for this system, in contrast to the last one, we can see it all forming on satellite as we speak. It's a much more focused setup this time around, i.e. a well defined low that has been around in the progs for days. All models are showing similar figures as well, very little divergence.

The last system was an inland tropical origin trough which behaved unpredictably (as they often do), it was meant to deepen over eastern VIC and stall and it ended up pushing out which was the difference between several days of heavy rain and one day of patchy rain/showers and then fine. Models went way over the top mainly because the precip water values were so high which kind of destabilised the rainfall progs, i.e. small variations in trough position and intensity lead to huge variations in rainfall amounts and distribution.

[James]

will there be much thunder likely in this? It was interesting to have thunder all night that time, no need for sunlight to heat it

[chillout]

Wonder what all those who are confident on here think of the downgrade latest GFS 06z. Slipping south. I'm going for 3 mls here.

[Sean]

Wonder what all those who are confident on here think of the downgrade latest GFS 06z. Slipping south. I'm going for 3 mls here.

If I get anything less than 10mm I'm buying a one way ticket to Innisfail. I wouldn't blame anyone or anything other than melbourne's boring climate.

[dazrain]

So we have the customary downgrade already.

BOM will go for 5 to 10mm of rain in the 5am forecast tomorrow morning.

You read it here first!

[Cloudburst]

Low still tracking east, so still looking good for heavy rain in the west of the state, bring it on!!

[Skywalker]

Going for 1mm here in the western boredom zone.

[Dane]

Hmm conservative

[Jake Smethurst]

Wouldn't pay much attention to the 06z run. They tend to go a little bit odd most of the time. Pretty much all the models had good falls across western and central Victoria tomorrow, most between 20-50mm. Likely to be locally higher with storms, and looking at the progs there's a reasonable chance of thunderstorms across parts of the west and south tomorrow. Might be a bit of a rain shadow for Melbourne at times, but still expecting good falls. But ... if I'm wrong, and all the models are wrong, I'll be obliged to do the weather bet loss which is the nudey run down the main street! pretty confident in this one.

[Wilko]

Betting on 40mm here tomorrow
Maybe a little bit higher if the low brings the SW on Wed

[adon]

Sorry to say people but the rainband is falling to bits. We have just had a shower go through from what looked like a solid rain band in SA. Looks like once again the action has gone north of Broken hill. Unless there is a solid band of storms that is developing in SA right now, we will be lucky to get 5mm from this

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like GFS has got this one better than the rest. EC got it seriously wrong.

What's interesting is that DPs are all over the shop:
At 5am: Mildura 22.5c, Bendigo 15.7c, Mangalore 11.6c.

I'm not throwing the towel in quite yet, but I really can't see more than 20mm today.