Victoria: Low pressure system February 14th-16th 2010.

[Petros]

Just for the record, atm the local dam levels are:

Blue Rock: 79% (good for this time of year)
Glenmaggie: 54% (better than normal)
Melton 16%
Thompson: 21%
Melbourne "all dams":35.5%

No change here - steady rain, very little E wind. Baro kicked up slightly 1011 to 1012 hPa.

[droughtbreaker]

winds have been quite gusty here, but it has remained dry. Cant believe the extensive Otways/SW rain. Is there a trough there or is it just because of the easterlies?

Upper trough plus moist S/easterlies sharply lifted over the range, similar to what happens in parts of East Gippsland in the same setup. In SE flow and unstable conditions the Otways have recorded the heaviest 24hr falls in the state. 375mm I believe the record is at Tanybryn (on the range N of Apollo Bay) in March 1983. I also vaguely remember 200-300mm falls in a day recorded there before sometime in the last 10 years, can't remember when.

[Petros]

By the Bairnsdale radar, we should be under the "blue to green" rain intensity - nup, just steady rain atm.

This happened during the storms last Thurs night too - the calibration of the radar distance to here has a significant error. Bet we get heavier rain soon as its all coming from the Bairnsdale"ish" direction anyhow.

BOM still going for all our rain to fall from Midnight tonight to midday tommorow, just hope we can get 20mm+ (50mm is progged by one model as I posted earlier).

[droughtbreaker]

Well, super frustrating day. Still reckon there's a chance of some rain here tomorrow morning. Models more or less agree on 5mm here overnight but there could be more than that given the moisture levels and SE flow. Of course there could be a big fat zero.

[Anthony Violi]

Just for the record, atm the local dam levels are:

Blue Rock: 79% (good for this time of year)
Glenmaggie: 54% (better than normal)
Melton 16%
Thompson: 21%
Melbourne "all dams":35.5%

No change here - steady rain, very little E wind. Baro kicked up slightly 1011 to 1012 hPa.

Just for the record...whats the 'real' figure?

[Anthony Violi]

winds have been quite gusty here, but it has remained dry. Cant believe the extensive Otways/SW rain. Is there a trough there or is it just because of the easterlies?

Upper trough plus moist S/easterlies sharply lifted over the range, similar to what happens in parts of East Gippsland in the same setup. In SE flow and unstable conditions the Otways have recorded the heaviest 24hr falls in the state. 375mm I believe the record is at Tanybryn (on the range N of Apollo Bay) in March 1983. I also vaguely remember 200-300mm falls in a day recorded there before sometime in the last 10 years, can't remember when.

I think Weapproinah is up there somewhere in the records?

[I_Love_Storms]

We 'should' get something here in the eastern suburbs this evening, the rainband looks OK, but wouldn't be surprised to see it break down, just given the events today.

Something is lacking. I think the trough may not be deep enough, but I guess we can't have everything, it is all a bonus anyway.

Goodnight all, all the best with rain/storms overnight

[Petros]

Just for the record, atm the local dam levels are:

Blue Rock: 79% (good for this time of year)
Glenmaggie: 54% (better than normal)
Melton 16%
Thompson: 21%
Melbourne "all dams":35.5%

No change here - steady rain, very little E wind. Baro kicked up slightly 1011 to 1012 hPa.

Just for the record...whats the 'real' figure?

Damned if I know - these figures are off the SRW and Melb water sites just before.

Rain has picked up a bit over past 15 min, moderate, I'd say. Still no wind of significance. [edit] - should note that the radar shows this rain arriving from the NE even though its easterly at the ground.

[droughtbreaker]

We 'should' get something here in the eastern suburbs this evening, the rainband looks OK, but wouldn't be surprised to see it break down, just given the events today.

Something is lacking. I think the trough may not be deep enough, but I guess we can't have everything, it is all a bonus anyway.

Goodnight all, all the best with rain/storms overnight

We're basically stuck in the middle here in central VIC. Poor positioning of the low, the upper trough arrived too late for storm development (missed the heating) and we are in the relatively stable central area of the developing low. By sunrise this low should have developed and moved east of the Gippsland coast. This is when we might see a SE 'wrap around' or stream showers. Also the main rain area to the NE should brush east central and outermost eastern parts of Melbourne. Also a bit of development to the immediate north which could provide a bit of light rain or showers throughout central overnight.

It is by no means over IMO but very much touch and go still as to who gets what.

[Petros]

Went outside for a look just then, dead calm, steady rain decent drops would give 50mm+ if persisted overnight (but pure speculation - didnt bother with the torch/rain gauge thing).

[Karl Lijnders]

Low is developing in the north currently with wind obs supporting a placement near Charlton.

Rain should wrap nicely into Melbourne arter 4am with falls to 40mm possible.

[Bobman]

http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosi ... s/rainfall

The highest recorded daily rainfall has been 375 mm at Tanybryn in the Otway Ranges, this was measured in the 24 hour period to 9am 22 March 1983. This recording was considerably higher than the next highest, 275.1 mm at Nowa Nowa (Wairawa) on 11 March 1906 and 274.6 mm at Balook on 18 February 1951, located respectively in East and South Gippsland.

The highest rainfall accumulated in a calendar year has been 3738 mm at Falls Creek (Northeast Victoria) in 1956.

Also of interest around the globe: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Heaviest_Rain ... _the_World

LLoro, Colombia, averages 13,300mm (523.6 in) per year
Mawsynram, Meghalaya, India, averages 11,873 mm (467 in)
Mt Waialeale, Hawai'i, USA, annual average 11,684 mm (460 in)
Cherrapunji, also in Meghalaya; yearly avg 11,430 mm (450 in)
Tutunedo, Choco, Colombia, annual avg of 11394 (448 in)

Tutunedo recorded a staggering 26,303mm in the calendar year
of 1974. That's 86ft, 3½ in for the year.

[Blackee]

Activity seems to be collapsing when it hits the Black Spur.
Not staying up to watch anything unfold.
hoping to be woken by a rumble.

[AUS_Twisted]

Just came back from a drive, I was on the Hume Fwy when everything died in the ass not to far off where I was going to setup That cell was throwing out pretty constant lightning as well. Ended up near Whittlesea and drove through the remaining parts of the cell which was not that much rain.

Will post a few structure shots soon with high ISO, from what was left anyway.

[Petros]

Just went outside the front for a recco - street gutter running 2ft wide, and puddles running off the front lawn, surprising me since we've had no rain since 18mm odd last Thursday. Shows me what steady rain can accumulate and why the BOM radar has shown it as the blue/green shade.

Bugger! - now I'm thinking that the dynamic lifter's probably all run off down the front driveway. At least the marriage is now strengthened a little (would even be stronger if I'd remembered that bloody valentines day thingo). :ooops:

[AUS_Twisted]

Few pics using 1600 ISO, 8 and 10 sec shutter. Would of been good to see with a bit of light, shame I didn't go earlier as I didn't think it would come so far S

[SC.]

Wind gusts have picked up in the last half hour, radar looks like it imploding on itself out east.

[Dane]

No rain at all here, looks like a fizzer for Melbourne. Some good totals in the Otways and out east though.

[Blackee]

0.0mm here, however 28mm at Eildon puts a smile on my face.
Good falls down your way Petros!!

[Macedonian]

Nothing here in the Central Highlands, Fab totals for Gippsland and also over the Thomson and Eildon catchments.