The Australian Weather Forum

Hello all from a mild Eildon , thought I'd better post while I have this (probably) temporary internet connection, it's an intermittent service up here! Had a surprisingly good trip up here and when we arrived the temp gauge in the car was reading 23C. Calm night, lots of bugs flying around and lots of people up here enjoying the "long" weekend. From the few people I've spoken to so far, I don't think anyone really understands exactly how much rain is going to be coming through this weekend. Off to catch up with some people and have a bevvy (or three ).

Yeah the scoresby forecast from the bureau is what I've used for my area since I can remember.a double check of the models just now puts my hopes up a lot.

06 GFS holding steady for 75 mm here over the next 48 hrs, the majority of which is predicted for 24hrs from about this time tomorrow night.

Would be wrapped to see 50mm here! Also, will the rain-shadow play a part in this?

EDIT: I know its far out, but the BoM forecast explorer says 50 - 100mm for here on friday??

Significant rainfall has moved into W VIC with moderate falls occurring in the far SW as we speak with the odd thunderstorm. Cloud is now in the process of thickening in the C regions of the state as the cold front and trough begin to move in, but from this point on the rainfall will begin to slow as the who complex encounters a block set in the Tasman at this present time.
What that will mean is the cold pool over Ceduna presently will move more ESE over the coming 24hrs and be situated over Adelaide during tomorrow and W VIC by Saturday night. This will interact with the tropical moisture, cold front and trough and form a low pressure system over C areas.
Rain areas and local thunderstorms over C areas will increase during the course of the day tomorrow and showers and thunderstorms over the NE will also increase in conjunction with the low forming. Heaviest falls are likely to affect the following areas:
1. Melbourne CBD
2. NE Highlands
3. Central Ranges
4. W Ranges east of Mt William.
At this present time those areas are in the firing line for falls of 50-120mm. Given the position of the low is somewhat firming to pass in the region of Melbourne, this will mean convective rainfall won’t start until the low forms so the rain could develop rather suddenly during a 4-6hr period tomorrow afternoon over the ranges and then sink south.
In any case widespread falls are likely to form anywhere directly south or east of the low with the wrap and the organisation of the low not really taking place until the complex moves offshore during Sunday meaning that heavy areas of rain will be taken away with it leaving convective showers, local hail and the odd storm across the state for a few days in unstable SW winds.
Melbourne Forecast
Friday Evening till Midnight: The chance of a shower later this evening, otherwise fine and warm with increasing humidity and cloud. 22C
Saturday: A few showers and the chance of a thunderstorm tending to rain periods by late morning and becoming heavy during the late afternoon. Local flooding possible overnight. NE winds shifting NW during the day and becoming variable. Humid. 21C
Sunday: Heavy rain easing to showers during the afternoon. Possible flash flooding at first. Chance of a morning thunderstorm. SW winds developing during the morning. 17C
Monday: Showers increasing later. Possible hail and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. 19C

For the latest official forecasts and warnings please visit… http://www.bom.gov.au

Next AWF Update: 6am Saturday Morning.

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This is certainly going to be a great event. It is not even evolving yet and what you are seeing is the start of it. Get plenty of sleep tonight!!

22C/13 here!

Brilliant summary Karl, thanks

A 28C sunny dy here, again peristant easterly all day.

Somewhere will get the peak rain, and the system will deliver to some - as all weather systems do. Never to all - so some people, esp. those in city suburbs where it doesnt matter a toss whether it does or doesn't - really frustrate farmers and others who see the bigger picture when they whinge about "its a fizzer for me".

Dropped in at Glenmaggie Weir on the way home, its 100.1% full - and in fact a little is pouring over 3 of the 16 gates - but none are opened. So IMO I think that we will be lucky to see much more than 15mm here all up because they presumably have pretty good alert systems.

But for the other side of the divide......... a different story!!!!!

grrr @ telstra and their next G!!!! steady rain here (between Dunkeld and Hamilton on Glenelg Hwy) for the last hour. Nothing heavy. No wind either

great weekend to go for a holiday up on the kiewa river. No turning back now. In all seriousness- what are peoples thoughts of what it will be like up there? Area from Mt Beauty to Dederang?

great weekend to go for a holiday up on the kiewa river. No turning back now. In all seriousness- what are peoples thoughts of what it will be like up there? Area from Mt Beauty to Dederang?

Wet! Especially if you're camping. Stream and river rises will happen reasonably quickly as the soil is still so moist up here, so I wouldn't be staying anywhere down on the flats. The Kiewa Valley Hwy was closed for a while in the last rain we had (couple of weekends ago) at Dederang Gap, so make sure you've got travel options. I'd only be staying somewhere with a nice solid roof... but I'm not a fan of cold and wet!

yeah snuggled up in mt b, safe. Will be interesting to see the river and the flood plains between dederang & kiewa too. Looking forward to it.

20/16 with Steady light rain here last 20 mins or so and winds have tended back to the NW after that gusty wind change a few hours ago with another 30 mins or so of rain to come then thats it for quite awhile it seems till maybe early am or sun rise.
Amazing watching this rain band die last 6 or so hours best falls about 3-4mm in Far SW, just over border though getting 10mm or so

Real interested to see this evolve looking at it atm it looks like its on the cusp of going up or just been a typical system i am not saying fizzer or anything its only just started just going on current obs

Watching N NE SA closely as this cloud is quickly heading SE with the back edge heading S SE and this is were i feel the action will start pick up from Cold pool in Ceduna looking nice and should be W of Adel by morning lifting a big band of rain in E SA, W VIC by sun rise or just after, hopefully.

Another big system on our door step one of these every 2 weeks like we are having for next 6 months would be great thanks

Meso wrote:WZ Predicting 12 hours of heavy rain tomorrow here, followed by another 9 hours of rain on Sunday.

I'm sure they'll scale it back as this thing progresses, but that would be something...

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/north ... d-forecast

Scaled back as predicted, heavy rain for 9 hours tomorrow now, then rain off n on sunday, but i suspect the best of it will be gone by then. Still, looks good for a nice period of "good rain" tomorrow morning and arvo. Can't wait to see what it delivers.

Side note to the forum admins...Howcome whenever i edit a post or quote something that involves a link, the forum software insists on adding javascript to the end of it? ie "onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" as evidence in the above quoted post.

Have not had much to say leading up to this event. Been very busy with school and other things.

A MASSIVE weather event likely to develop over the weekend. Heavy rainfall as well will develop during Saturday with the low developing over north central Victoria, particularly during the afternoon and evening with embedded isolated thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorm activity will be more likely though with clear cell features in the northeast of the state if cloud does not hamper activity.

Expecting up to 50mm here, possibly higher falls depending on where the low forms and where it moves. I have a feeling we may be in just the right spot to receive a lovely wrap around!!

Generally the rain band this evening was always going to be concentrated over western Victoria, and it was always going to be patchy at best with the odd heavy spot. So far this evening we have had a little rain with the odd heavy drop or two. Further extensive rainfall will develop overnight.

Will talk more tomorrow and put some forecasts out, but get those boats ready people!!

Very Humid out there

19/17c atm with very light NNW wind, so muggy as hell and Dps across much of NW VIc and W NSW are in the high teens so surface moisture is now there so ingest away Cold air field

Rain rapidly developing over North central parts and moving south you central folk are going to get so much rain jealous

Feel we may be dry slotted here between rain band just to E and Wrap around just to SW but VERY early days

Cloud band starting to tilt and back build just a bit in N NE E SA but still little rain showing up

Also of Note is the nice low in the Tasmen sea that is heading SW so this is really going to block this low nicely hence the stalling and big totals expected

Time will tell see you in the Morning

Walked outside a couple of mins ago, not a hint of rain having falen, now the first spots heard on the tiles
With the rain the temp dropped about 1C to 20.4C @ 5:30am.

AWF Update 6am

Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms over W VIC this morning have finally pushed into C areas with a particularly thundery and heavy burst over the Melbourne metropolitan area this morning. This rain is expected to continue off and on all morning over the region. Elsewhere the rain areas and isolated thunderstorms will continue to increase across the west and north as a low pressure system winds up in the region. Locally heavy falls are forecast to develop over Central regions and the NE later in the day.

Melbourne Metropolitan Forecast:

Saturday: Rain periods. The chance of thunderstorms later. Locally heavy falls developing later with local flash flooding possible. Humid and mild with light winds. 22C

Sunday: Heavy rain easing to showers during the afternoon. Possible morning thunderstorms with local flash flooding. Becoming cooler with strong SW winds developing. 17C

Monday: Showers increasing. Possible hail and thunder later. 18C

Tuesday: Showers, more extensive in the eastern suburbs. Possible hail and thunder clearing. 15C

For the latest info on warnings and official forecasts please visit. http://www.bom.gov.au

Picked up just over 2mm so far.
Liking the set-up for today in regards to storms with this early rainfall pumping up the surface moisture levels.
If we get any clearance or break (unlikely I know) then it would go off!

EC has the following 3 hourly rainfall rates for my locality
1400hrs 14.0mm
1700hrs 14.1mm
2000hrs 11.4mm
2300hrs 15.2mm
0200hrs 9.5mm

Total: 64.2mm in 12 hours. Yes please!!

EC now giving me just 1mm for the whole "event". I say nothing.

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Northern Country, North Central, Central and Northeast forecast districts
Issued at 5:11 am EDT on Saturday 30 October 2010.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system and associated trough over Victoria will remain over the State today and tonight.
Localised heavy rain this afternoon and evening may lead to flash flooding over parts of the Northern Country, North Central, Central and Northeast forecast districts.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT Saturday.