Significant rainfall has moved into W VIC with moderate falls occurring in the far SW as we speak with the odd thunderstorm. Cloud is now in the process of thickening in the C regions of the state as the cold front and trough begin to move in, but from this point on the rainfall will begin to slow as the who complex encounters a block set in the Tasman at this present time.
What that will mean is the cold pool over Ceduna presently will move more ESE over the coming 24hrs and be situated over Adelaide during tomorrow and W VIC by Saturday night. This will interact with the tropical moisture, cold front and trough and form a low pressure system over C areas.
Rain areas and local thunderstorms over C areas will increase during the course of the day tomorrow and showers and thunderstorms over the NE will also increase in conjunction with the low forming. Heaviest falls are likely to affect the following areas:
1. Melbourne CBD
2. NE Highlands
3. Central Ranges
4. W Ranges east of Mt William.
At this present time those areas are in the firing line for falls of 50-120mm. Given the position of the low is somewhat firming to pass in the region of Melbourne, this will mean convective rainfall won’t start until the low forms so the rain could develop rather suddenly during a 4-6hr period tomorrow afternoon over the ranges and then sink south.
In any case widespread falls are likely to form anywhere directly south or east of the low with the wrap and the organisation of the low not really taking place until the complex moves offshore during Sunday meaning that heavy areas of rain will be taken away with it leaving convective showers, local hail and the odd storm across the state for a few days in unstable SW winds.
Melbourne Forecast
Friday Evening till Midnight: The chance of a shower later this evening, otherwise fine and warm with increasing humidity and cloud. 22C
Saturday: A few showers and the chance of a thunderstorm tending to rain periods by late morning and becoming heavy during the late afternoon. Local flooding possible overnight. NE winds shifting NW during the day and becoming variable. Humid. 21C
Sunday: Heavy rain easing to showers during the afternoon. Possible flash flooding at first. Chance of a morning thunderstorm. SW winds developing during the morning. 17C
Monday: Showers increasing later. Possible hail and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. 19C
For the latest official forecasts and warnings please visit…
http://www.bom.gov.au
Next AWF Update: 6am Saturday Morning.
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This is certainly going to be a great event. It is not even evolving yet and what you are seeing is the start of it. Get plenty of sleep tonight!!
22C/13 here!
, thought I'd better post while I have this (probably) temporary internet connection, it's an intermittent service up here! Had a surprisingly good trip up here and when we arrived the temp gauge in the car was reading 23C. Calm night, lots of bugs flying around and lots of people up here enjoying the "long" weekend. From the few people I've spoken to so far, I don't think anyone really understands exactly how much rain is going to be coming through this weekend. Off to catch up with some people and have a bevvy (or three 
).
steady rain here (between Dunkeld and Hamilton on Glenelg Hwy) for the last hour. Nothing heavy. No wind either
