Petros wrote:Check out the radar in the Gipplsand area!
We have light showers generally descending down on us from the N, yet at a similar distance away to our S, have showers passing by heading from due E?
Has Morwell suddenly sprung up as a meso surface low?
E WInd has reduced here past 30 mins, but the odd gust still sends the wind chimes into a frenzy. Baro kicked up 2 from 1009 to 1011 hPa last hour.
With high faith in GFS ( and good support from MLAPS) - pencil me in for 45mm from now to late Tuesday (your a pessimist Pengaz!).
.... radar shows the dominant force is now from the NE, looks like the first light rain is only minutes away, hopefully the start of a decent rain event.
A lack of detailed radar is really hurting tonight.
Severe TS warning is probably made a bit blind, unless BOM have had some calls in from recently affected areas.
Tough gig trying to forecast severity tonight, unless the figures are glaring at you.
It seems as if someone turned off a switch - nothing but a breeze happening now. But I am happy to see lightning tonight when I didn't think that would even eventuate!
Yeah, STW way too broad, very unusual for the BOM to mark out such a broad area when there are only a few isolated cells around, normally areas have to be under obvious and immediate threat.
Oh boy, looking at the radar it seems to have disbanded completely! That died pretty suddenly - on that note, I'm heading to bed - I have to go back to work tomorrow.
BoM are having it tough at the moment. The forecasters are not too happy with the radar failures as much us as. But their forecasts in my opinion have been very good of late.
Anyway, back from Deb training, and it has been raining here since 7pm. Some of it is becoming locally heavy rain, we are in the firing line like Firestorm, we are getting the stuff going over the Otways!! Not sure on how much we have had, but it should be above 30mm. Looking at the radar a fair more to come and we have been getting lightning and thunder here as well. Very good start!!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
After light rain for 15 mins a very heavy burst sent me outside for a gander.... finished as soon as it started, back to light steady rain again - but certainly shows the potential in such a humid atmosphere.
The effort I spent at the golf club transplanting couch patches and putting super around the fringes of the established ones my come to fruition!!!
Not to mention placating the domestic issue I caused by putting dynamic lifter out on our front and back lawns - if we dont get 25mm from this I'll be divorced.
We seem to be doing okay regarding thunderstorms lately. A lovely light show to the north atm, great CG's, though is slowly moving out of my view. Still expecting a few more storms overnight embedded in the rain areas.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Petros wrote:Not to mention placating the domestic issue I caused by putting dynamic lifter out on our front and back lawns - if we dont get 25mm from this I'll be divorced.
Yikes! Fingers crossed for you then, Petros
Not much happening here now, radar's looking pretty disappointing, the wind's still quite gusty and the temp's risen 1 degree in the last hour yet Scoresby AWS shows a steady drop. No idea what's going on there!
winds have been quite gusty here, but it has remained dry. Cant believe the extensive Otways/SW rain. Is there a trough there or is it just because of the easterlies?
Settled to steady rain with increasingly heavier rates - very light easterly wind which is unexpected by me - thought we'd be settling into a windy night.
But I am happy to see lightning tonight when I didn't think that would even eventuate! 
