Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th November

[crikey]

Rikjpool
Yeah just noticed there is a north south line starting to develop from woomera and down to the bight.on stormtracker.
Barom at 1003 in that area
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Looking good atm and has been intensifying. Looks like on radar some blobs trying to develop eastward of that main band near bordertown atm. Looks to be some development on the trough line. . BOM forecast was for things developing in the morning here
Like the look of that massive cold pool behind the front in S/west WA. Jane bunn said it would be over for us by Thursday but that cold pool could cause some mischief into Thursday.?
Looks possible in southern parts the barom could drop to 1000hpascals
I reckon why we had no rain or storms today in the west was because we were in between two troughs. '
1003 to our west and 1007 hPascls to our east. WE were about 1010hpascals. Seemed to act like an area of high pressure . In mid latitudes an area between two troughs is usually a high. albeit this one only weak. It is looking very stable out here in dunolly , no cloud. Expecting things to change in the morning.
There are some very nice dew points around the state and the RH has climbed rapidly this past few hours. At this rate could be a few blobs developing on the radar soon.
Yeah. One strike near Renmark. Looks line a line might develop . A few more blobs and can line it up( join the dots LOL)
Not here though we have no clouds yet. LOL
Just imagining some of you keen weather watchers up again tonight watching this develop.

[eegs]

Fingers crossed for a good outcome up there Adon. Things certainly look pretty intimidating in SA however.

[wolfcat]

Can someone please check that Roxby Downs is still there in the morning...

if this is a taste of what is coming...

[rikjpool]

Well that cell NW of Renmark has my attention... clear Air Night storms!!!! Bring it on!!!

[Meso]

Can someone please check that Roxby Downs is still there in the morning...

if this is a taste of what is coming...

Imagine being parked on the west side of that...one hell of a light show.

[Twister]

HUGE DAY TOMORROW

That Squall in SA looks unreal with a huge book end vorticity classic with squalls, but this one is huge and very defined.

Lots of cells popping up in E SA ahead of that massive Squall line, this will all build and grow and move into the NW in the coming 4 hours and might make it down here for a nice Am surprise.

Humid Hot Lots of rain and Lots of Thunderstorms tomorrow Huge 40-80mm falls for may with many 100mm spots Huge day

Watch the radar, skies massive 24 hours ahead

Bring on the next 24 hours and good luck to everyone

[crikey]

Yeah Meso l am inclined to agree. Have seen some text books with that pattern for severe storm and tornado development.
Can't find the one l wanted to show you but this reference l found shows that pattern well. The pdf will download and check out page 6
http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1969/spillane2.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
EDIT
In this particular documentation this radar pattern brought giant hail 2 inch diameter to Sydney l believe 14th December 1967

[stormygirl]

Looks like VIC will put on one last hoorah for you, Deano!

9.5mm yesterday with the storms at 3am and again at 5am. I swear someone had a huge hose over the house that was suddenly turned on for 2 minutes, then suddenly turned it off again... It was quite bizarre and very heavy torrential rain.

Supposed to be going to Flinders tomorrow for the day, but might reconsider. I don't really want to be out driving in 40mm of rain and flash flooding if I don't really have to! I'll decide later.

Good luck everyone and please stay safe.

[adon]

There is a very active cell a long was to my west. I would say its on the border but flashes from the cloud every few seconds. Clear air for miles up here and very calm. Pity it is a full moon as you would see heaps more.

[aussiestormfreak]

YIKES!!!

That chart looks unbelievable... especially considering how calm and clear it is outside, the skies are blazing with stars and the moon is shining

But given how humid it is outside (a warm, sticky night for sure), it doesn't surprise me that much lol... those thunderstorms firing up over South Australia sure look nasty, especially that squall line with the 'hook', and there's cells building ahead of that line near the border. I'd say we could have overnight convective activity starting up around Melbourne as early as 3AM, and this humidity, combined with the highly unstable atmospheric conditions in place, could mean we get some truly vicious weather conditions... so I'm off to bed shortly, and I'm setting the alarm for sunrise.



Haha, couldn't resist... just expressing my excitement at the approaching severe weather... take care, stay safe and have fun everybody!

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes looking very good for development overnight and early morning. BoM better be ready to issue some STW overnight so hopefully they're not too sleepy. I have just updated the TS chart for tomorrow: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... mchart.htm. All the details there.

But take a look at those thunderstorms developing in the E SA currently! Amazing stuff!! Love that print screen you have there Meso, shows how volatile the atmosphere is, there would be very strong winds in there for sure.

[rikjpool]

Some of those cells in SA look very nasty!!

[sparra]

Watching TV and heard the thunder.....that storm might just go south of us but should get Nhill by the looks. Not used to seeing red in them on the radar for here......we will see i guess...don't really need any rain after the 30pnts last night but won't really hurt either as long as it isn't too intense
What is the significance of the "hook" on the radar??

[Twister]

Man SA is Exploding SO wish we had those Cells, as they are exploding in Clear air they will be unreal and look amazing so Jealous wish i was out there.

SA really going up now and that will all feed and develop into W NW Vic in coming hours

Yes Jane how nice of it hoping to get out in it tomorrow

[sparra]

You can come stay at our house!!

[daviescr]

Jake, love the chart - it's really looking like a wild 24hrs for victoria. Hold tight everyone, stay safe.

Question for any of the gurus out there - that cell currently over central SA - I presume that could that be defined as a supercell? It's developed a definite shelf on the leading edge, and it's a monster - over 400km long and 200km wide in places.

[Twister]

No a Supercell at all its a Squall line, bow echo they can be very large 100s of ks and last a long time, they are intense long lasting have a great shelf and normally have lots of lightening, very strong winds and Heavy rain.

Yeah Sa really looking very nice classic wonderful clear air isolated cells everyone's dream wish i was there sparra

Its So magic out side clear Humid 21/17c its just magic out there

BRING ON THE STORMS

Looks like another 5-7am wake up call

[daviescr]

Thanks Twister makes sense, having serious brainfade thanks to a messed up body clock...

[Jake Smethurst]

Twister bet me to it. Thanks for answering dean.

For informations sake, it's good to realize what a supercell is. Usually they are defined as having a mesocyclone which is a deep, continuously-rotating updraft. It's often quite visible to the eye and even on radar.

[daviescr]

hey all, first post, just watching those cells in SA. Wind gusts up to 109km/h at Roxby Downs and 111km/h at Maree and many other places close to 100ks. this stuff means business. Was considering heading out tomorrow, but might just play it safe and stay home! We'll see.

Big welcome to the forum Wilstar, you couldn't have joined at a better time!