Victoria: Cold Outbreak/Low Pressure. January 17-20 2010

[Jake Smethurst]

Amazing Karl!

Had a few more showers here this afternoon. Obviously not getting the good stuff, to far west from the coldest and most unstable air. Quite windy though, gusts to 60 km/h in showers.

It's a very volatile atmosphere tonight, expecting waterspouts just off parts of the coast overnight and possibly on the Bay.

[Blackee]

4mm in 9mins @ Moorabbin.
Not bad for stream showers!!

[Karl Lijnders]

Belting here!!!

EDIT: 4mm here in 5 minutes. Massive downpour!!!

[Bobman]

4mm in 9mins @ Moorabbin.
Not bad for stream showers!!

I'm in Moorabbin and only had light passing showers. The Moorabbin Airport weather station is in 'Cheltenham East'. It's windy and cold outside though.

[Karl Lijnders]

May have to wait after midnight for more extensive showers unless the convection rolls off the bay. Looks like a chance of the latter. 7.8mm here since 9am. Some reasonable falls too continue.

[Jake Smethurst]

Hey Karl.

Whats your YTD so far?

[daviescr]

What an interesting day! Been just out of the firing line here, still managed a drop or two - made it to 3.8mm from 9am, total 17.8 for the month now.

And Karl, argree with your post elsewhere - happy to stay at this temp for a while at least... Better than 40c+ any day... Looking forward to the commute to the city tomorrow morning - looks like most of the rain will be between 6am and 10am???

[norfolk]

some light passing showers this evening, if anything maybe less than 0.5mm so far! Cold and windy though, coldest I have felt for a while now! Definately not like that line of showers hitting the SE suburbs!

[Karl Lijnders]

Chris the rain will be heaviest between 6-10am for sure. You can see the directional shift to SSW coming up on the 512km radar W of TAS.

YTD is somewhere 55mm so far.

[Petros]

.... and everyone is all keen again, good to see.

After a steady W breeze out this way in the morning, it turned to a strong nasty westerly all arvo gusting under the darker clouds.

Copped a few squally showers at golf at Traralgon this arvo (Churchill won the Plate) - a crappy arvo considering its January, but only 0.5mm in the guage at Maffra when I got home and nothing other than the odd W flurry to set the wind chimes off since.

All talk of snow finished?

So if we get a wet southerly flow established over the next 24Hrs, we must acknowledge GFS has made the the goods again despite being fairly much maligned by some in this particular forum over the past 2 days especially. :lol: :lol:

[Karl Lijnders]

Petros you may be on to something. It is looking favourable judging by the SSW kick coming into Central areas. Could be a wet afternoon and night tomorrow out your way! 20mm looks good for you.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

8mm System 5mm since 9am 21mm Month. Nice spurts for about a minute or so.

[Blackee]

Cell near Rosebud has thrown out a spark!

[Petros]

Petros you may be on to something. It is looking favourable judging by the SSW kick coming into Central areas. Could be a wet afternoon and night tomorrow out your way! 20mm looks good for you.

Half the cow cockies would hock thier house for 20mm tomorrow night, so hope your right Karl.

Cant see why we couldnt pick up 5mm tonght in the showers that the radar says are about to our W atm too.

.... and (while I'm on my box) the "system" (cut-off) is happening now, or overnight, the models are yet to be proven right, sometimes tight intense systems (< 100Km area) do develop which cant be detected in most model gribs. So I live in hope as usual but as we all know, I'm usually proven wrong big time, (but have records of events that DO come off under these near-exact circumstances to fall back on). Which is what we are all about isnt it????

[edit] - still nothing to add to the odd shower here this arvo, and fairly calm out. Radar shows showers possible from the W but still out Warragul way atm.

[Karl Lijnders]

It will flatten into rain areas for you in the morning Petros.

Showers surging up now and turning to rain areas almost before hitting land. Some lightning to my SW over the bay with heavy cell. Should go to sleep now. :frogjump:

[droughtbreaker]

8.6C here which is very cold for before midnight in January, this is a serious air mass. I've only got one light to moderate shower so far, too cold to be stuffed going to the gauge but maybe 0.5mm, the airstream is still too SW and showers approaching here either rain out over the Lerderderg gorge and Pyrete ranges area or shear off north and hit Blackwood and Trentham. Once the wind goes SSW then it's on for here, at least relatively speaking. All models giving us 5mm locally falling mostly between the hours of 6am and 12pm tomorrow. Depending on how cold it is by then there could almost be sleet up the top of the mountain.

[Rivergirl]

It's 7 deg C here in Ferny Creek now. We've had 5mm of rain and it's hailing atm for the second time tonight

[Karl Lijnders]

Some bright lightning for last 10 minutes to my SE towards Berwick way. Heavy rain and hail here before but sinced stopped.

[AUSSKY]

4.8mm for Clyve, 2.6mm for me (don'tcha hate living 1.2km too far north of the ridge at times like these!!!!! harumph!!!!! ) 6.1C atm - lightning earlier to the south and then up this way - coldies rattling on through.....hmmm...didn't someone say it was summer......get back home late....Tango's been hooning through red Trentham mud puddles...what did I do yesterday???? got the carpet cleaned...took me 10 minutes of scrubbing to dry him off enough to be able to come inside without immediately staining the carpet with iron oxide...again....ok, thanks, whinge over....

[Karl Lijnders]

Rudely awoken by a raging 100kmh squall with hail slamming against the windows and still got pelting rainfall. 4mm in quick time, White out conditions out there.

Temp down to 9C!!! 20C cooler than this time last week!