The Australian Weather Forum

hillybilly wrote:Glorious day in Sandy Point today with a warm sun, light southeast wind and quite humid. Only downer was the lack of swell and the the work I had to do.

Systems looks to be hardly changing - if EC is correct reckon we'll get close to 100mm between now and Tuesday night in Ferny Creek. Will be great for the gardern/trees/creek.

Looks quite a lot drier in Sandy Point with the Tassie rainshadow coming into play for much of the event.

With 100mm I will be able to post pics of Dandy Creek in flood with all the water you send down

As quick as it came its gone cooler with light winds now and rain has stopped, yes sorry no pics was just a dirty orange sky was like orange thick fog really but real windy

Yeah i agree Proteous if moisture dont get dragged down totals will be lower and rain band in SA weakening quite a bit last few hours

BUT in saying that Storms in NW NSW are firing up and heading south and lots of rain and Storms in NE SA moving S SE also

Latest models up rain to 30-40mm here and have this rain band dieing before new one develops to my NW and moves SE into the State tomorrow morning, expanding nicely then has cold pool moving over Adel which will form another rain band which in turn will become warp around as low develops in S NSW, N Vic and moves slowly south

So only time will tell

BTW wind change is very evident with NE winds at Swan hill and all Central VIC, and SW winds at Mildura and all W Vic wind change moving into central areas next few hours

Nothing here and the radar is fading quickly. I am no forecaster but it looks like its dying completely, for us here anyway

mantis wrote:Nothing here and the radar is fading quickly. I am no forecaster but it looks like its dying completely, for us here anyway

It hasn't even started yet, Mantis. Just cool ya jets, you'll do fine.

johnno wrote:You sure Andrew? To me it shows 75mm or so out your way the next 3 days GFS..

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... 2010102900" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yeah, I couldn't see the rain on the BSCH website so i was estimating from the WZ model maps. It does look like 75mm plus now that I can see that link.

typhoon29 wrote:arrived at 'inlaws' at 6:30pm light rain a from Glenthompson to Dunkeld. High based stuff. Nothing to get excited about. I hope this doesn't turn into the boy who cried wolf. Mind you warm and very windy day, got to a max of 25 whilst doing road surrveillence today at Ballarat.

I hate to say it, but I first noticed this yesterday and wrote on this forum that there might not be rain at all, in the south central area anyway.It just didn't look and feel right to me the setup. I really how I'm wrong but the past 3 or so systems were forecast to give melbourne close to 80-100mm each and they've turned out to be fizzers IMO

Once again I'm praying I'm wrong.its about time dandenong creek flooded Properly for the first time in 5 years.

Steve, the cold air that will initiate the low is still well back near Ceduna. Another 12 hours from now it will start to take shape. Relax, and get ready to enjoy widespread heavy rain.

Everything is going plan so far. Still hoping for 50mm at the least. All the signs are there. Enjoy it everyone!

I reckon enough stressing. Just wait for the event to unfold more, it will happen when it happens, and you will know about it. Still anticipating 50 mm in Inner suburban areas of Melbourne.

Starting to cloud right over, mild and dead calm at the moment. Wind change a few hours away.

Wondering if that dust from Mildura will make it to Melbourne? Would be awesome if it happened * Liking the look of that squall line in Alice Springs Impressive.

Oh dear, please let's not start the 'it's a fizzer' nonsense when the system hasn't even arrived here yet or developed properly.

Look at the models and the forecast. There is only 1-5mm forecast by 10am tomorrow for most of the state and 10mm+ in the far SW corner. Most of the rain will be tomorrow afternoon and evening continuing through to Sunday afternoon. The rain will develop over the state, it is not just one big band coming in from the west like you get with a simple cold front. It is a low pressure system forming over us tomorrow and the situation is a lot more complex.

Also it is a multi part system. A lot of the rain will come through tomorrow from the NW ahead of the low passage, the rest of the rain will come up from the SW as a wrap around feature and then showers continuing as the upper cold pool sits over us on Monday/Tuesday. It is not just a flash in the pan rainband coming through overnight and tomorrow then clearing out.

It is just so frustrating. We are having the best rainfall year in 10 years through most of VIC and it could end up even wetter than 2000 in many areas, no one has 'cried fizzer' once this year. Now that we have a really major system coming through some people want to make out it won't happen.

WZ Predicting 12 hours of heavy rain tomorrow here, followed by another 9 hours of rain on Sunday.

I'm sure they'll scale it back as this thing progresses, but that would be something...

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/north ... d-forecast" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nicely put Andrew.
Suggestion for all (as much as we love you being on here). Early night tonight, check out the 06z runs and then get some sleep.
All models putting heavy rain tomorrow arvo/night into Sunday. Some may not get any sleep tomorrow night depending on the set-up (ie Flooding etc).
Won't be a fizzer!

droughtbreaker wrote:Oh dear, please let's not start the 'it's a fizzer' nonsense when the system hasn't even arrived here yet or developed properly.

So true and so funny

Some people and their lack of optimism, or perhaps knowledge..anyway.

That's a good point made there Sniper. GFS is actually driving the heaviest rain through overnight Saturday and Sunday morning, so perhaps looking at the radar and satellite right now is not the best thing to do. As suggested, look at the models, sleep on it and then enjoy it as it unfolds through the day tomorrow.

I agree, tomorrow night, sunday will be where it will be at!

Also already sodden areas will be in danger of flooding, here we wont see anything that dramatic!!

No arguing please lol.we are all in this together and make a great team.Reading my post is a little misleading in what I'm trying to say.the models all point to an amazing system this weekend and I'm sure the bureau knows better than me in terms of forecast rain.droughtbreaker you're right.it is the best rain in 10 years and everyone Is loving it. I'm at the stage now where we just need to wait patiently for it to all unfold.any rain is good rain and more than welcome.I'm sick of the dryand I'm sure everyone agrees.i can't wait for the dams to be full either.

Harley34 wrote:

droughtbreaker wrote:Oh dear, please let's not start the 'it's a fizzer' nonsense when the system hasn't even arrived here yet or developed properly.

So true and so funny

Some people and their lack of optimism, or perhaps knowledge..anyway.

I used to be guilty of it at one stage, but that was when we were in severe drought and almost every system that should deliver failed. We were all so negative and pessimistic we couldn't believe how we could ever get good rain. The strange thing though is that we are having one of the best years since possibly as far back as the mid 90s and coming from that position people still want to call it a fizzer. It just makes no sense at all.

Anyway, to stay on topic. A very warm evening here, 18.5C. Pollen count must be horrific right now as I have a stuffy running nose and sneezing every few minutes, and I don't usually get bad symptoms.

stevco123 wrote:No arguing please lol.we are all in this together and make a great team.Reading my post is a little misleading in what I'm trying to say.the models all point to an amazing system this weekend and I'm sure the bureau knows better than me in terms of forecast rain.droughtbreaker you're right.it is the best rain in 10 years and everyone Is loving it. I'm at the stage now where we just need to wait patiently for it to all unfold.any rain is good rain and more than welcome.I'm sick of the dryand I'm sure everyone agrees.i can't wait for the dams to be full either.

Scoresby forecast on WZ http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/melbo ... d-forecast" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; cloest we will get to this neck of the woods, by it apart from a slight ease up early Sunday morning we are set to be rained upon from from early tomorrow till well into Sunday afternoon.

ANYWAY enough of that talk

Well the first rain band is weaking quite quickly which i am surprised but the models all showed this so yes on track looks like main rain band develops overnight and into the morning N NW of us before been pulled down over the state while cold pool wraps up in SA and late W Vic

Winds and dust have cleared her now getting, few spits but nothing major hoping band of rain can make it here giving few mm before fully dieing out with another developing over N, NE, E, SA tonight

WOW at Alice on radar and sat pic that squall line looks sweet, lucky them would love to be up there

22/13c with W wind