VIC: Rain/showers & thunderstorms - October 12th- 14th

[windyrob]

Here is a quick and dirty panorama of the storm front at elwood beach
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5gu3NbzW9A

[Leasy]

7.4mm here and still coming down - not a bad effort! Temp has dropped to 15.8c and the wind is coming from the NE - if there was lightning I didn't see it as I was slogging it at the gym, but the rain has been great - bring it on!

Edit: Great pics and vids guys! Wish I could have gone out there!

[Blackee]

Here is a quick and dirty panorama of the storm front at elwood beach
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5gu3NbzW9A

Kudos to you Rob, and others, getting out today and capturing the wall clouds and approaching storm.
Been under consistent rain for the last hour now, up to 5mm.

[Didjman]

as of 2111 local, 39.5 mm this evening! If this is summer - COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Unfortunately, nothing photogenic here (vid or still)
Peter

[Skywalker]

Just emptied 7.7mm out of the gauge, excellent start to the system. Looking forward to round 2 overnight/tommorow.

[Petros]

28C here today, calm and back to 21C atm. First warm fat lazy blobs of rain starting to fall now and then over past 15 minutes. Lawns gone brown as if it was mid January.

After a total of only 78mm over past 3 months and 10 mm over past 30 days, heres hoping!!!!

[droughtbreaker]

16.2mm here in the end. It was just a fairly long period of moderate to heavy rain. I was a bit surprised with just how much we got, but it was quite heavy and sustained I'll admit.

[HarleyB]

We've had 14.6mm here so far. It's still going now though, lightning went away at about 8:30. It seems to have flattened out a bit after it went past us.

Some nice cells forming near Mildura, most likely wont make it down here but could be good for round here tomorrow. Hoping for somewhere round 5-10mm tomorrow, though wouldnt be surprised to see more, or less.

[Twister]

Gusty SW Winds blowing here as if its all over but trough for sure is just to my E.

20/15c with gusty SW winds likely outflow from Renmark storms which then set of the storms to my E Se which has now died blob of rain to north moving south heres hoping.

Showers have exploded all over on the Mildura radar and the rain band in SA is becoming thicker and heavier hopefully a wet night and morning through out the area.

Good falls in SW and central areas forecast for storms was bang on the money today which is great to see.

heres hoping lots of rain for us all in the coming 3 days

[Jake Smethurst]

Well a very good day in terms of thunderstorm development. Generally they formed where predicted, and have affected most of the state except the southwest where unfortunatley, the trough pushed in too early, and the far east missed out too but they were generally not expected to see development today. Some severe cells about the place as well this afternoon and evening and that line east of where I am looked impressive on radar. I am looking forward to hearing and seeing John and Brad's reports from today.

For here and at home, conditions were generally overcast, however Cu developed beneath this during the day, and in the end (not to my knowledge, but to my fathers) we ended up receiving a developing thunderstorm; in fact the start of the line that formed over the Otways, which produced some brief lightning and thunder at home. Since then some patchy rain had set in but has dissipated since and it's mostly dry at the moment.

Anyway, here are my thoughts for tonight and the next few days.

Tuesday Night
The low pressure trough is set to continue to advance through western Victoria during Tuesday night but be relatively slow moving. It should then possibly stall in a line from the northwest corner of the state to the southeast of Melbourne. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across central parts of the state tonight before contracting eastwards and generally clearing overnight. However, rain areas will start to filter down from the northwest overnight and we are likely to see embedded thunderstorm activity with this and also the possibility of seperate cells near the rain areas as well. Winds tonight will tend back to the north for much of the state and moisture will re-fill!

Wednesday
Wednesday should see the trough remain over Victoria. Rain areas, locally heavy, are expected for most parts of the state, except the far southwest. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across nearly all of the state again tomorrow, but more likely near the trough in any clearer air that is in the region, particularly during the afternoon and evening. Flash flooding would be the main concern again, but because of the general rain areas expected, flooding could develop anyway.

Thursday
Rain should be contracting eastwards on Thursday to affect eastern Victoria. Winds will tend more west to northwest then northwesterly during the day and conditions will remain quite humid. Further showers and thunderstorms are possible over western and central Victoria during the day, ahead of a strong frontal system which is approaching the state by Thursday, and should reach the west late in the day or overnight with a rain band and even more isolated thunderstorms.

100mm are possible across some parts through the next few days, particularly northeast ranges and eastern ranges. Will have to wait and see. Generally good rain for all though over the next two days.

[mad*moo73]

Baby "Harry" born 10/10/10 at 11:25am.

Congrats on the new addition Skywalker & well done on the missus holding out to get 10/10/10, no excuses for forgetting Harry's bday!

[wolfcat]

A total of 13mm out of the gauge tonight, 10 from the front and the rest for the back of the change

[Skywalker]

Baby "Harry" born 10/10/10 at 11:25am.

Congrats on the new addition Skywalker & well done on the missus holding out to get 10/10/10, no excuses for forgetting Harry's bday!

Thankyou mad*moo. We still can't believe it ourselves, who would have thought he would run a week past due date & arrive on that particular date. A very special gift indeed.

Rain cleared here for now, not much wind either just going by a quick look out the window.

[Blackee]

Still plenty going on, especially north of the divide. Suspect cell to the W of Tocumwal.

[stratospear]

Latest GFS is still happy to predict massive rain totals over alps and NE Vic. From Echuca to Mt Buller is the sweet spot. This feels like a real early 1990s spring (i.e. 1993).

[Proteous]

Nothing here, but a nice warm day. Max.27. Would need a jack hammer to penetrate the ground it's so dry. I hope tomorrow drops something......anything.

[AUSSKY]

Sometimes you wonder if you are seeing things.....looking NE of Sunbury

I thought I saw something... (contrast pushed a lot to get through the rain and mist)

I thought I saw something......

121010jon037d.jpg (46.57 KiB) Viewed 6053 times

no idea what I'm seeing...

121010jon037colcontd.jpg (82.77 KiB) Viewed 6053 times

121010jon039contrastyd.jpg (96.51 KiB) Viewed 6053 times

[Blackie]

A beautiful solid period of rain here from 5 until about 9. GFS is really stuck on these big falls in the NE over the next few days.

Petros, really hope your lawns are green again by this time next week!

[Hamlan]

Looks like you may have something there Jane. Hard to tell but eagle eyes are a great thing!

I've just posted in the stormchase thread on an amazing chase today. Pics to come when I can. Video should be the best i've shot in Aus I would say. The conditions out there from Maldon to Broadford were so impressive for storms - higher temps than forcast and the air thick with moist northeasterlies feeding the storms. It was great.

[Petros]

1mm pulled us up last night, calm and overcast atm.