Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[mick]

Well we have northerly today instead of humid e/se, afternoon sea breeze might make for a convergence line later on.

[tre75]

Already and easterly wind down @ Airey's won't take much for that too swing around too SE, I guess it depends on how strong the northerly gets, if its strong then SE winds won't come until evening, if its not then the easterly will persist all day allowing for 2 different wind directions over the otways and possibly further inland. My parent's have a place in Anglesea and Anglesea -> Geelong weather is totally different all the time, should be interesting, it still does feel quite humid here though, high DP is always a good sign.

[johnno]

Going by the sky I expect development between Ballarat/Ballan/Meredith/Sheoaks areas within the next 2-3 hours.. Massive towers going up 50-60ks WSW of me at the moment. Northerly breeze here too.

[Nick Sykes]

Just went for a short walk, getting hot out there.

From what I saw from Malvern East the west central areas will fire today, some nice development out that way. Saw a few small Cu to my NE, but nothing good yet, though very early.

Nick

[Geoff]

Yes, first thing I noticed this morning when I got up was that there was a bit of a north wind blowing, which we haven't had all week. It would suggest that the seabreeze might struggle to push any convection away to the north of us later today. Can see the first towers going up to our north now, and the breeze is still blowing from that direction, so the next few hours will be very interesting. Don't want any lightning strikes up here though, or the whole of the Dandenongs could go up!

[Nick Sykes]

Latest Vis sat pic shows the development to the WSW of Melbourne quite clearly, looks like something will go up soon. Also the Eastern Ranges and SW Vic look like they have some storms developing soon. Not much to the N/NE of Melb at this stage.

Streamline chart at about 10.30am shows convergence running from that development west of Melb down to the SW along the north side of the Otways.

Nick

[nafets]

Large field of towers going up to the west now, rapidly growing !

[Andy]

Going to a day on the green this arvo/evening. Knowing my luck after the frustration of the last few days, we might be in for something later. I have a visual on the development out to the west and its making me nervous!

[nafets]

Development now starting to the NW and N, looking good now

[occluded]

32.9/14.9 here.

Got a few towers popping up to my North and a field of Cu popping up to the East.

Very little wind around today, compared to yesterday's SE'ly storm-annihilator. Here's hoping.

[Rhino]

Not as excited today for my area compared to the last couple of days but melb should be in with more of a chance with the steering winds favourable today but I'd be looking at western district west of ballarat/ sth wimmera and could also big some big storms around baw baw which should move N/NW perhaps towards the marysville/eildon area . Will be interesting to see how the arvo goes and hope all down south get a drop.

Rhino.

[tre75]

Doppler wind radar shows multiple convergence lines, one to my west, one around meredith, and one out south of melton, I can see some cloud development on one to the west atm.

edit: very dark stormy to the north, west from geelong cell is still forming, these are quite big, going to go off.

[droughtbreaker]

A fair bit of Cu going up here now, mainly to the south and overhead but also some starting up north of here.

[Rhino]

Should have added that storms in central and western parts will move S/SW.

Rhino.

[droughtbreaker]

Big turkey towering to the NW of here with pileus cap. BIg development also happening to the SW and some low dark bases overhead and to the east. Most other convection looks to be capped but obviously some is breaking through the cap now and looks very impressive.

EDIT: It's all going vertical now. Watch the radar over the next couple of hours as it should start to light up.

[droughtbreaker]

I've got a fair picture of what's happening now. It's all falling down except for on the convergence between the southerlies and NEs to the SW of here where it seems to be sustaining itself and over a wider area. It's of my opinion that the only chance for storms today in central VIC is along or near that line. If it moves inland during the day then storms will effect more areas.

[droughtbreaker]

Actually, I forgot to look east. By far the biggest and most active area of cloud is out there and encroaching on us here. That might be where it's going to come from.

[James]

looks like if we are going to get anything here it will be from the east, that would be weird if it came that way...usually the other direction, but it seems the cloud is moving this way...

plenty of bubbling convection locally but nothing turning into storms...

[Skywalker]

Won't get anything here AGAIN! So over it.

[Gordon]

Nice fat drops have started falling here in the last few minutes.