Victoria: Heatwave conditions moving S - Jan 7-11 2010

[droughtbreaker]

Sheoak's obs are a sign of what is to come tomorrow.

It's the SE change that is the main one. Sheoaks now down to 31.9C, a drop of 4C in half an hour.

[johnno]

Uppers are very warm tomorrow looked like it was going to be very warm hot to hot even in the south from the word go last week thats how I've always seen it anyway. Temps in the North be a stinker and in the south in and around Melbourne be 1 of those days that will be a late Max with the mixing of the heat occuring late in the day against the seabreeze which I don't expect to be strong anyway.

If todays change had of come through the city after 12pm like 5 pm would of easily got to 43c today given was neally 39c at midday so theres every chance Monday be 44c here in Melbourne can't see cloud moving us until into the evening or even night.

GFS has the change coming in late and generally has, at the start EC had it Monday night now EC has delayed it by at least 12-15 hours probably late morning Tuesday once again at the moment. So far EC and GFS have had their moments EC for picking this shallow change but GFS for FIRST progging the airmass to be hotter than what EC had.

BOM were off the scale today it was already 31c at 830pm not sure how they could think it would only go up 3c given the change would come at midday as they predicted never seen it go up 3c in a Hot N airmass from 830 to midday unless its overcast always get the jump temp that time of day. It could be that time of the year when they have fill in's not sure alot of the experience forecasters might be on hoildays thats 2 days now they have underestimated yesterday could of been hotter if the cirrus wasn't around. The change wasn't late today came through right on the dot of midday through the City so wasn't a matter of the front being late was a matter of them underestimating how hot the airmass is and lazy forecasting.


Latest 00z UK has the next change come through late Morning Tuesday it was spot on about today run after run not budging for a Midday change. Reasonable rainband behind it too.

[I_Love_Storms]

I agree Johnno, for a Government Bureau that we rely on for bushfire forecasting as well, it is pretty dismal.

Can't see much moisture whatsoever around either, until maybe Tuesday, but even then I am not convinced until it happens this time of year, so far it seems as though the switch has clicked just like last year, but I hope I am wrong.

[Karl Lijnders]

Thanks Andrew and John. I agree with the both of you.

Cooling back here now but slowly. 32C now.

[droughtbreaker]

Change came through here a little while ago. Now down to 32.8C and humidity on the rise again with the bay air flooding in.

I'm not sure about tomorrow now that the latest model output has been released. At this stage it doesn't look as bad as today with southerlies likely to prevail for most of the day on and south of the ranges. There may be a spike in temps later on but most of the day looks alright. It could be anything from 34C to 38C IMO.

GFS is suddenly showing some unstable weather on Monday like a lot of us were suspecting. GFS has scaled right back on moisture levels though. We need a fair bit more moisture advection into the state than currently progged if we want cloud and the chance of storms to influence the temperature.

[johnno]

Coldstream been in SSW winds for well over 2 hours now and still hovering over 36c there, I think this is indicative of whats to come through tomorrow for most of the Melbourne area (Unless your within 5-6ks or less from the bay) these mid 30's temps right across the board by 5 or 6pm tomorrow.

Hope I'm wrong I would of been happy to have been wrong today and yesterday with this dry and hot weather prevailing, hopefully I'm wrong tomorrow but my vibe tells me I won't be.



EDIT: Adelaide has been in WSW or SW winds since Midday and temp has continued to climb and hit 41c not long ago just goes to show how super warm the Uppers are at the moment seabreezes are having little to no effect there I think thats whats to come for us tomorrow not the 40c down here in Melbourne but mid 30's mabye a touch higher even with the seabreeze effect.

[AUSSKY]

[quote="droughtbreaker" wrote at 3.47pm]Change came through here a little while ago. Now down to 32.8C and humidity on the rise again with the bay air flooding in.
[/quote]

Still not here at 4.05pm.....up to 34.1C Wind around to the SE but RH risen 20% in 5 minutes

Arrived at 4.07pm......down to 33.9C

[VRSTORM]

just hit 37c and the RH dropped to 17% and the dew point is 7C

[Dez]

Just wondering, what are those white lines of precipitation on the radar, near Daylesford?

[VRSTORM]

No idea? no precipitation here clear sky for miles

[Bobman]

Could be a fire or just a typical radar flaw. There have been those white lines near Laverton for as long as I remember. It's there 24/7.

[droughtbreaker]

It's along the line of the wind change and it often happens. I don't know why it shows up as radar echoes, someone else will have to explain that.

[Karl Lijnders]

Just like fog or moisture levels at nighttime causing echoes to appear randomly, the same applies to the wind changes which picks up dust with stronger winds on the outflow perimeter.

Saw it last week with the thunderstorms and storm force winds across Melbourne.

[johnno]

Spot on Andrew, thats what it is guys

[droughtbreaker]

29.8C here now and muggy, very different to what it was like an hour ago. Just shows how much influence the bay has over our weather.

[AUSSKY]

Would it also reflect a change in density as the humidity went from 10% to 39% up here in a very short period?

[Pengaz]

Boy what a stinker out here today. Stuff the 33C forecast out this way BOM, I got 41C on my little station here at home and the loclal AWS got to 39C. Drove home from Drouin around 2pm with one eye permanently fixed on the temp gauge, thick heat.

Had a brief respite with a SW breeze come through around 3pm dropping things back to 33C and a rapid increase in the DP's to 14C at one point making things extra sticky-however it seemed to retreat south a bit and we're now back up to 37C here and 35C at the AWS, with DPs back to single figures and humidity plummeting.

Hoping for a more substantial wind change soon. I think tomorrow will at least be 3C warmer than the forecast, just a gut feeling.

[AUSSKY]

Spot the wind change reaching Trentham! Down to 28.2C and much more humid!

[Petros]

For the 2nd day in a row I've got to confess my TOTAL LACK OF ACCURACARY with temperature predictions.

Told by brother that things will be fine for golf this arvo, as the change had already gone through Apollo Bay mid morning - at that time a calm 37C here. I expected a cool change by 2pm.

Indeed a strong SW breeze came up about then dropping temps by 4C (IMO) - no (or buggerall) cloud with it. An hour later we were baking in calm blazing sun. Would you believe 42.5C in the tree shaded S facing eve (400mm below it) of my shed at some time late arvo!!

If your old man comes home grumpy Pengaz, cut him some slack - I know what he's been through.

This just simply wasnt forecast (for the 2nd day in a row).

Still a calm oppressive 35C here atm. All our plants have just collapsed so wandering around watering things, luckily the family is out skiing.

Things WILL dry out in the bush.

[norfolk]

if tomorrow doesnt reach mid to high 30's I will be very very surprised.