Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[AUS_Twisted]

Latest sat pic shows convection building closer SW under the high based cloud, though it looks pretty weak... shame about the low DP's, would of made for a interesting afternoon/night before the main rain band.

[daviescr]

Saw 5 guys inspecting Mullum creek below the ringwood bypass this morning, down below the link road towards the Mullum Mullum Tunnel. Three were from Yarra Valley Water. I turned round headed back to see what the fuss was about and ended up chatting for a while with them down near Schwerkholt Cottage.

Turns out YVW are in crisis mode today, checking all creeks and storm water drainage before this event. They are particularly worried about that section of 'new creek' that was diverted when building eastlink, as the last few big-ish rain events in the last two months have seriously eroded the banks of the new creek. One area of erosion is worryingly close to a support strut for the roadway above!

All I can say is take care people, this may not be a dramatic event at first, but has promise of widespread floods.

[Harley34]

STW for N SA. Is this an indication that thunderstorms are more likely to develop in the clear air after the initial rain band, or this an entirely different situation?

Top of 28 degrees for Melbourne today, so the BOM was right on the money. Anticipating at least 50 mm for my neck of the woods. Should start to get some patchy rain into the early hours of tomorrow morning before intensifying. Cloud is building, and C areas of VIC are only a good 10 or so hours away from a huge drenching.

As long as the main catchments get at least 50mm, i will be happy. I would rather a ton of water in storage then down the drain, however good for soils.

[I_Love_Storms]

Central district: The cloud mass will continue to grow and patchy rain will begin in the early hours of Saturday and becoming heavier as the day wears on. Widespread heavy falls are likely in the afternoon and evening with the chance of a storm.
Heavy rain will continue overnight into Sunday and gradually ease by mid to late morning. 50-100mm for Central areas, possibly upto 150mm around the ranges.

[occluded]

Just had my first branch down,

Had two callouts today so far for tree branches down on powerlines, one in Templestowe and one in Tram Rd. Didn't think there was that much wind around today.

They are particularly worried about that section of 'new creek' that was diverted when building eastlink, as the last few big-ish rain events in the last two months have seriously eroded the banks of the new creek. One area of erosion is worryingly close to a support strut for the roadway above!

Thanks for the heads-up, might tell the wife to avoid using the link road and the tunnel for a few days

Warm, calm and overcast in the CBD at the moment with some darker could to the west. With 50-100mm for Central areas, might be busy with the sandbags tomorrow evening!

[mick]

Watched a big 20k long pure white sausage very high over the bay that showed some stacked glaciated layers on the back edge around 4pm. All high light grey murk to the west. Ants going off atm.

[Supercellimpact]

Yeah should be good here 50mm + .. Lastest ACCESS has the low developing sat afternoon over southern nsw and going south east which is good for here.. And does anyone reckon storms behind the main rain band?? Cloud is fully covering us now and getting darker from the west..

[Meso]

Anyone having trouble viewing the latest GFS accumulated precip on BSCH? All I get is a black map with "Entire Grid Undefined" written over the top. Had the same thing happen a couple of times in the past too...

[apocalypse]

Sometimes it can experience data feed loss, so some of the days may be missing. If you can find which days they are you can work around them, for example, in the latest run it will give you accumulated rain to 72 hrs, then 120-180hrs.

[Twister]

Fully agree there Harley34 long as the big rain falls in all catchments and rivers and dams then all is good only rain down the drain in cities and big towns.

Mid level moisture increasing here with a few showers developing ahead off the rain band good signs for rest of the night,
shame Dps aren't in the 15-18c range things would be a lot more exciting right now and rainfall would be through the roof

Central areas looking like best spot for this system so enjoy most in the south and in mount regions will do very well as to the NE

33c today hottest day this season and was so nice haven't even hit 35c and its November crazy stuff but nice to be back to normal.

Hoping for 20mm any thing more and i be stoked

Nice falls in SA today hoping we get better than that, rain band atm dont look great but is still building

[stratospear]

Latest EC downgrades to 44mm (down from 60mm previous model run)...

[droughtbreaker]

EC has a bit over 70mm for the Saturday/Sunday period here which is pretty similar to what it had yesterday. GFS by the looks of things is only progging around 35-55mm but these models do not properly pick up the effect of the ranges which will be major for this system.

[johnno]

You sure Andrew? To me it shows 75mm or so out your way the next 3 days GFS..

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... 2010102900" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Proteous]

EC has slightly upgaded for here for a total of about 15 mm for the weekend. Sunny and clear today with a fresh sea breeze. My feeling is that unless the predicted low can pull a lot more moisture down from Northern latitudes the expected rainfall will be somewhat less than current indications. This is only the second time I've stuck my neck out since I had it repaired some months ago.

[Gordon]

Latest GFS has you and me down for 75 mm over next 72 hrs Droughtbreaker? Edit - Johnno beat me to it.

[thunderhead]

Some short-lived mammatus struggled to form over Kew around 18:45.

[Twister]

OMG we have just been slammed by a Big Dust storm, vis down to about few 100m, The wind change was crazy form calm to 60-70km/h in seconds, sky went orange red leaves and dust blowing every were and has been raining mud for a few minutes, also temp dropped 7c in 5 mins its wild out there

Rain band seems to be weakening a bit think stuff in NE SA is of interest for us late tonight

Its wild windy and dusty out there atm dark to the west to

[Hamlan]

Nice Twister! am I being greedy to ask if you got a pic?

Thunderhead, I saw similar weak mamatus over Bundoora after 6pm too.

Brad.

[Blackee]

Thanks for the heads-up Dean.
Lets see if it travels further south and east...

[typhoon29]

arrived at 'inlaws' at 6:30pm light rain a from Glenthompson to Dunkeld. High based stuff. Nothing to get excited about. I hope this doesn't turn into the boy who cried wolf. Mind you warm and very windy day, got to a max of 25 whilst doing road surrveillence today at Ballarat.