Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th November

[TheFishmanAU]

There is a stench of failure in the air, were we just lucky this morning?

Seemingly the force field fought back after letting two through early.

If we can't generate a storm with these conditions, we won't ever again.

Maybe tomorrow but tomorrow never comes!


It's over, ring the bell.

[Jake Smethurst]

Well I've updated the thunderstorm chart as a part of the routine update at 3pm. Conditions are still very volatile, however the cloud is the major restricting factor currently. Southwest and Northeast are hot spots for the rest of today mainly and I would be watching this areas closely. Elsewhere, you really need to get into the high 20's under the cloud for development to get going. The good news is, is that if I am looking at the latest visual satellite right, the cloud is thinning over the western districts such as the Wimmera and western central areas. The cloud over northern districts is too thick. So hopfully conditions improve. I'm still certain there will be storms as per ts chart.

[AUS_Twisted]

Why is the emphasis on clear air? I thought the only reason was to help with heating but the temp is rising regardless - now 27 degrees.

We need the extra surface heating to generate enough lift to get some decent updrafts going, otherwise theres only weak mid level convection right now

Edit: Theres a pretty good area of blue sky above and south of me here and convection is starting to get better

[adon]

Very muggy and still up here and hoping this cloud sticks around to stops storms from going. Would be a big risk of getting smashed with this air hanging around

[rikjpool]

Latest sat pic shows clear air around the Mildura area now. Also I must remind people that it is only realy 2:30pm as far as the weather goes, so there is still plenty of time for things to boil up. Just keep an eye on the sky.

[Lily]

Yes, good point, Rik. I was just coming in to post as Austwisted has observed - while out getting the kids from school, there's certainly the hint of blue sky and and a definite thinning of the cloud cover here in the SE.

Will it or won't it????

[aussiestormfreak]

I totally agree Lily and Rik, assuming this cloudcover continues to thin and surface heating really intensifies, we could see massive convection, so I'm not giving up yet, my cameras remain at the ready... even if any shower and thunderstorm activity arrives after dark, but hey better than nothing haha

[daviescr]

Certainly looks like there's hope for you all yet - and remember we're in November now, the sun has a lot more power than even 2 weeks ago. My fingers are crossed over in WA...

[Rhino]

Suns out here and 27C and starting to finally get some developing cumulus to the NW. The wait continues.

Rhino.

[Alexia]

Missed everything this morning just had 2mm rain so not much so far.28.7C .H66%

[Rhino]

SWW out from the BOM for flash flooding tommorow for a few parts of the state so going to get nasty, don't often see that warning.

Rhino.

[aussiestormfreak]

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Northern Country, North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland and North East forecast districts
Issued at 2:48 pm EDT on Tuesday 8 November 2011.

Weather Situation
An active cold front will enter western Victoria tomorrow afternoon, reaching central districts in the evening.

Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding are forecast to develop mid morning Wednesday, for the North Central and North East forecast districts and parts of the Northern Country, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Tuesday.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


Yeah Rhino, normally we'd see Severe Weather Warnings for damaging winds (mainly in winter and spring mind you)... not often you'd see one like this

[rikjpool]

Tornado in Southern NSW today.... In Bombala.
Photo Credit to Fiona's Hubby - WZ Forum.

[flatcam]

A lot of Cu around at the moment so hopefully something may happen soon. Tomorrow does look particularly nasty! Will be interesting to see how big the storms will grow.

Nice to wake up to the sound of thunder this morning, even if it was early!

Darn physics exam. Why couldn't you be held later? lol

Cheers, Cam

[AUS_Twisted]

Doesn't look like anything will happen during daytime hours, plenty of clearing out west and convection out there no good. Hopefully some cooler upper air when it gets darker helps things along

[Karl Lijnders]

Nice grab there of the tornado!!!

Looking like it could break towards 6pm. Lots of very fat Cj and CB developing along the convergence in southern VIC.

[Petethemoskeet]

What a crappy uneventful day.Storms to the north and storms to the south(sounds like a song).Lets hope the forecast for tomorrow comes to fruition.

[ShaneEEEE]

I am sitting near Lismore in Western Vic and I can see the clear air to the west with a large CU Field, however none of the Cu have any depth. The only stuff that looks like it could do something is to the east over towards the Geelong area.

I am not convinced anything is going to happen in the short term, perhaps in the evening when cooling comes in.

[Duckey]

Hi All, well missed all the excitement this morning as have been in Canberra since Friday, made the long drive back today. Woke up to some persistant non-severe rumblies in our nation's capital about 4:00am, very tropical humid air and heavy showers which were quickly evaporated. We were on the road by 7:15am and everything was dry.

Copped a ripper tail end of a storm on the Hume about 50k's out of Albury, torrential rain with visibility down to practically zero (even Semi's were pulled over until it passed) but thankfully only lasted about 5 mins as the main front had gone through before us.

Coming past Wangaratta and into Glenrowan at about 11:45 this morning however saw a very interesting large storm which had some clear rotation and would have dumped some massive totals. Again, we snuck round the back of it on the Hume and didn't even get rained on as it had barrelled past at a rate of knots. Very lightning active and had some really interesting cloud formations going on. (if anyone has the radar loop of that time çan they show me where I can find it?) Hubby got some very bad pics with a very bad camera through a very bug-dirty windscreen as we barrelled along at 110k's I'll pop them up later but they're not great.

Tomorrow looking VERY interesting.....got the day off too before back to work Thursday, so am geared up for some drives around my area to get some pics if things develop nicely!

Edit: forgot to mention, when I got home this arvo I had to tip out 32mm out of the gague which I emptied before I left on Friday!

[stratospear]

This afternoon's lack of action in central areas was all about timing. If the storm front had come through this afternoon instead of this morning, we would have been smashed (like Bombala).

I suspect tomorrow is going to be similar to the Sept 29 event: Overcast and rainy skies with embedded storms in the afternoon. Cold pool near Albany WA looks intense...